Projected Opening Day Payroll 2016 Orioles -- Up to the Moment

[Frobby]

The payroll for 2016 is 126 million currently. Not 140m. Not 136m.

An increase of about 8% from last year.

And it won't be going up much more.

Maybe we should have a parade for Pete or something down Eutaw St for almost bankrupting this small, feeble operation we call the O's and MASN.

Have an agenda much? Nobody has suggested a parade.

As to what the payroll "is," it depends how you want to define it. Does some or all of the deferred comp count? If it does, do you count it at net present value, or just the value it at the number that eventually will be paid? What number do you use for Britton, given that the Orioles have submitted an arb number $2.3 mm lower than Britton's? How do you count the guys who are competing for a roster spot?

All that really matters is that you do it in a manner that is consistent from one team to the other and one year to the other. On that basis, BB-ref has our projected payroll ranked 13th in MLB. I'm not throwing a parade over that, but that's about where it seems we should be.

[Redskins Rick]

Very good chance it will reach $150 by Opening Day.

I think its 50-50 that the payroll stands pat, until mid season.

[Crazysilver03]

Very good chance it will reach $150 by Opening Day.

Don't think there is a very good chance there. Maximum of slight chance.

[Redskins Rick]

Don't think there is a very good chance there. Maximum of slight chance.

Thats where I am, I think its 50-50 on staying the same, and slight chance it actually makes 150 million by OD.

[Frobby]

Thats where I am, I think its 50-50 on staying the same, and slight chance it actually makes 150 million by OD.

Depends what number you are starting from. If you don't include the deferred comp, there's essentially zero chance we are at $150 mm on opening day. If you do count it, then we could reach that number by signing Gallardo or Fowler, or possibly by signing two lower-ranking players. I still think that's not very likely. My guess is we stockpile a couple of very minor pieces that might raise the payroll by $2-5 mm in total.

[Redskins Rick]

Depends what number you are starting from. If you don't include the deferred comp, there's essentially zero chance we are at $150 mm on opening day. If you do count it, then we could reach that number by signing Gallardo or Fowler, or possibly by signing two lower-ranking players. I still think that's not very likely. My guess is we stockpile a couple of very minor pieces that might raise the payroll by $2-5 mm in total.

Thats my own thoughts, I've not had any real warm fuzzies, that we were still in on Fowler or Gallardo, inspite of what Roch and others keeps reporting.

I don't know what DD's top end is, I think he was willing to bend the payroll to its limits for Cespedes, and if another 5 win WAR comes available, again, doubtful, he might be interested, but I suspect he wants wiggle room, for mid season moves.

Again, just my own thought process.

[AZRon]

Have an agenda much? Nobody has suggested a parade.

As to what the payroll "is," it depends how you want to define it. Does some or all of the deferred comp count? If it does, do you count it at net present value, or just the value it at the number that eventually will be paid? What number do you use for Britton, given that the Orioles have submitted an arb number $2.3 mm lower than Britton's? How do you count the guys who are competing for a roster spot?

All that really matters is that you do it in a manner that is consistent from one team to the other and one year to the other. On that basis, BB-ref has our projected payroll ranked 13th in MLB. I'm not throwing a parade over that, but that's about where it seems we should be.

Thank you

(Frobby -- sorry, apparently I am currently barred from adding to your peerless reputation)

[AZRon]

The payroll for 2016 is 126 million currently. Not 140m. Not 136m.

An increase of about 8% from last year.

And it won't be going up much more.

Maybe we should have a parade for Pete or something down Eutaw St for almost bankrupting this small, feeble operation we call the O's and MASN.

You know -- this post is kind of representative of the comments and discussion that, unfortunately, currently permeate our society.

We are each entitled to our opinions. However, some of us prefer the facts.

Fortunately, we are blessed with individuals like Frobby who possess the patience to provide a reasoned response.

Here, I will attempt to follow his excellent example.

To TradeAngelos:

"The payroll for 2016 is 126 million currently."

In my opening post, I was very careful to provide you with my definition of opening day payroll and to explain why I chose that definition. You are certainly free to choose your own definition, but when you do so, you will preclude the opportunity to accurately (and relatively easily) compare the Orioles opening day team payroll to those of other MLB teams.

Here's just a small sample of websites that follow my example:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/index.php?team=BAL&cyear=2016

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/extras/payrolls/

http://sports.newsday.com/long-island/data/baseball/mlb-salaries-2015/

http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/mlb-cost-per-win-by-season/2015/

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/baltimore-orioles/payroll/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-be-fooled-by-baseballs-small-budget-success-stories/

"An increase of about 8% from last year."

By any measure, this is factually in error. It appears that you have used my definition for the 2015 opening day payroll and your definition for the current projected 2016 opening day payroll.

"And it won't be going up much more."

I'm assuming that this is your opinion as opposed to a statement of fact. Yet, even on that basis, it depends on your definition of "much"

"....bankrupting this small, feeble operation we call the O's and MASN."

It's always amusing how often anger and hyperbole are paired and how, equally as often, the attempt to convince others of your point of view fails.

[AZRon]

Britton's pre-arb settlement required no change to the projection in the opening post. The projected opening day team payroll remains at $136.27M.

If the O's win 93 games in 2016, that works out to a $1.465M/win efficiency rating. That is almost exactly the ratio that they achieved last year when they ranked 13th highest among the 30 teams in cost per win.

[wildcard]

You know -- this post is kind of representative of the comments and discussion that, unfortunately, currently permeate our society.

We are each entitled to our opinions. However, some of us prefer the facts.

Fortunately, we are blessed with individuals like Frobby who possess the patience to provide a reasoned response.

Here, I will attempt to follow his excellent example.

To TradeAngelos:

"The payroll for 2016 is 126 million currently."

In my opening post, I was very careful to provide you with my definition of opening day payroll and to explain why I chose that definition. You are certainly free to choose your own definition, but when you do so, you will preclude the opportunity to accurately (and relatively easily) compare the Orioles opening day team payroll to those of other MLB teams.

Here's just a small sample of websites that follow my example:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/index.php?team=BAL&cyear=2016

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/extras/payrolls/

http://sports.newsday.com/long-island/data/baseball/mlb-salaries-2015/

http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/stats/mlb-cost-per-win-by-season/2015/

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/baltimore-orioles/payroll/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-be-fooled-by-baseballs-small-budget-success-stories/

"An increase of about 8% from last year."

By any measure, this is factually in error. It appears that you have used my definition for the 2015 opening day payroll and your definition for the current projected 2016 opening day payroll.

"And it won't be going up much more."

I'm assuming that this is your opinion as opposed to a statement of fact. Yet, even on that basis, it depends on your definition of "much"

"....bankrupting this small, feeble operation we call the O's and MASN."

It's always amusing how often anger and hyperbole are paired and how, equally as often, the attempt to convince others of your point of view fails.

I think you point out an important distinction.

1) Most if not all websites that track team payroll don't track deferred money. Payroll ignoring deferred money is a way to compare teams but it is not accurate when trying to talk about what the teams obligation is to pay their players in a specific year.

2) Payroll that tracks how much deferred money is being paid tells what the team's obligation is this year. It takes a real effort to follow this closely. Therefore I can only do it for the Orioles. I have no idea how much deferred money other teams pay.

Example: Chris Davis is being paid 7/161. That is 23m a year. But with deferred money he will receive 17m this year. That is a 6m difference in his salary and thus 6m in the team's payroll also. Hardy, Jimenez,and O'Day also have deferred salaries this year.

The purpose for the teams to deferred salary is so they can keep salaries and thus team payroll low over the next few years. The deferred money will increase future payrolls when hopefully the team has more ability to pay higher payrolls.

Here is what I have for the current payroll with the deferred money subtracted at the end to show what the O's will pay this year.

1) 23m Davis - 1B

2) 16.3m Jones - CF

3) 15.8m Wieters - C

4) 13m Jimenez - SP1

5) 12.5m Hardy - SS

6) 9.15m Trumbo - DH

7) 6.75m Britton - RP1

8) 6.225m Tillman - SP2

9) 6m O'Day - RP2

10) 5m Machado - 3B

11) 5.1m Gonzalez - SP3

12) 3.9m Matusz - RP3

13) 2.8m Kim ? LF/1B

14) 2.6m Worley - SP4

15) 1.5m Flaherty - UIF

16) 1.5m Vladimir Guerrero (deferred compensation)

17) 1.3m Reimold - OF/DH

18) 1.25m Brach - RP4

19) .53m Gausman - SP5

20) .52m Schoop - 2B

21) .52m Joseph - BC

22) .52m Roe - RP5

23) .52m McFarland - RP6

24) .51m D Alvarez - RF

25) .51m Givens - RP7

26) .50m Rickard - 4th OF

27) .50m Bundy - RP7 (DL)*

Sub Total 137.305m of earned salary

Minus 6m deferred from Davis

Minus 2.25m deferred from Jimenez

Minus 2m deferred from Hardy(best guess)

Minus 1M deferred from O'Day

Total 126.055m salaries to be paid in 2016

130m- 126.055 = 3.945m

* if Bundy stays off the DL the payroll will be decreased by .5m.

[25 Nuggets]

...so if we're talking $140 mil budget, the team still has $13.795 mil they can actually pay players. They can sign an OF and trade for a SP that can contribute no problem with that.

Heck with $4 mil they can sign a David Murphy and make a trade with around zero net difference.

[El Gordo]

...so if we're talking $140 mil budget, the team still has $13.795 mil they can actually pay players. They can sign an OF and trade for a SP that can contribute no problem with that.

Heck with $4 mil they can sign a David Murphy and make a trade with around zero net difference.

They can sign Gallardo for 10 M and Murphy for 4M. I think we will see something like that.

[Frobby]

They can sign Gallardo for 10 M and Murphy for 4M. I think we will see something like that.

1. No way Gallardo signs for as low as $10 mm/yr.

2. I don't know where the idea came from that the O's have a $140 mm budget, excluding deferred comp. I have no idea if they are willing to pay that much.

3. As I explained in another thread, under the CBA the O's have to set aside money to fund any deferred comp, the year after it is "earned," using a 5% discount factor. For 2016, the O's have to fund the deferred comp that Hardy and Ubaldo earned in 2015, totaling $3.25 mm (less the discount, which I haven't calculated). Next year, they'll have to fund the $11.25 mm (less discount) from this year's deferred comp. That has to be taken into account when the team does its budgeting.

[AZRon]

1. No way Gallardo signs for as low as $10 mm/yr.

2. I don't know where the idea came from that the O's have a $140 mm budget, excluding deferred comp. I have no idea if they are willing to pay that much.

3. As I explained in another thread, under the CBA the O's have to set aside money to fund any deferred comp, the year after it is "earned," using a 5% discount factor. For 2016, the O's have to fund the deferred comp that Hardy and Ubaldo earned in 2015, totaling $3.25 mm (less the discount, which I haven't calculated). Next year, they'll have to fund the $11.25 mm (less discount) from this year's deferred comp. That has to be taken into account when the team does its budgeting.

"I don't know where the idea came from that the O's have a $140 mm budget, excluding deferred comp. I have no idea if they are willing to pay that much."

I am uncertain as well. I titled an earlier post in this thread "Approaching $140M". I, of course, was referring to my calculation of the opening day team payroll. As I've said repeatedly, my calculation includes deferred salary as do most of the websites relating to MLB team payrolls. Again, here's just a small sample of websites that follow my example:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/co...BAL&cyear=2016

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/extras/payrolls/

http://sports.newsday.com/long-islan...salaries-2015/

http://www.sportingcharts.com/mlb/st...y-season/2015/

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/baltimore-orioles/payroll/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ccess-stories/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-be-fooled-by-baseballs-small-budget-success-stories/' rel="external nofollow">

There is lot of conflating and confusing the team's "payroll budget", current/anticipated cash outlays for payroll, and the projected team payroll that I have posted.

For the record:

• The payroll budget (if one actually exists) is not public and, therefore, unknowable
• The anticipated use of the information that I have posted is to allow for comparison to the opening day payrolls of the Orioles and other MLB teams for this and past years during the Dan Duquette regime
• If a contracted player is not suspended during a contract year, the team incurs a liability for the entire contracted salary for that year

"As I explained in another thread, under the CBA the O's have to set aside money to fund any deferred comp, the year after it is "earned," using a 5% discount factor. For 2016, the O's have to fund the deferred comp that Hardy and Ubaldo earned in 2015, totaling $3.25 mm (less the discount, which I haven't calculated). Next year, they'll have to fund the $11.25 mm (less discount) from this year's deferred comp. That has to be taken into account when the team does its budgeting."

I note your excellent research and earlier post relating to the CBA's Article XVI definition. This is important because deferrals are included in the computation of team indebtedness and the league is extremely wary of again being forced to assume the operation of one of it's members.

Perhaps an example of the impact of such accounting will help:

By July 1, 2017, the Orioles will have to escrow $5.7M to comply with the CBA regarding Chris Davis's deferred salary. They will also have to make set-asides at that time for Hardy, Jimenez, and O'Day.

As a further example:

Wildcard, in his above post, included the deferred salary owed in 2016 to Vladimir Guerrero as $1.5M. Actually, the CBA required the Orioles to set aside $1.425M by July 1, 2012.

Even if you assume that the Orioles have a specific team payroll budget, who really knows if and how that set-aside affects team spending for players in 2017.

Finally, posters here :

• are free to speculate on how much the team will spend on team payroll
• when doing so, are free to state their own definition of team payroll and distribution
• are not free to substitute, without explanation, their definitions for mine

[El Gordo]

If they are seriously considering Gallardo and he will cost at least an AAV of 10 M then the payroll would be at 136 M and indeed be approaching 140 M. Especially if they sign a LH OF bat like Murphy/Joyce.