Has Chris Carter set Pedro Alvarez's market price?

[DrungoHazewood]

It pretty early to be dissatisfied with the O's off season when Dan is the the VP of Baseball Operations.

There were folks here who were disgusted with Duqette's 2015-16 offseason in June of 2013.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't think it is just a matter of certain posters who are never going to be satisfied or optimistic.

I think that's part of it. There are a number of people who think Duquette's and the Orioles' successes from 2012-14 were mostly lucky, and that the typical outcomes of the strategies that worked in the playoff years would be far worse.

[Frobby]

Last year there were a few very vocal posters who were upset about Cruz, while I think this year there is a broader consensus that the team is not in a position to contend right now. I for one was still bullish last year, but don't like what I see this year. I am not I don't think it is just a matter of certain posters who are never going to be satisfied or optimistic.

It is easier to see your team contending after a 96-win season than it is when coming off an 81-win season, even if the team is basically the same. I'll worry about whether I think the team can contend when the roster is complete. But I've been wrong about how the team would do so many times that I don't really believe my opinion has much meaning.

[DrungoHazewood]

It is easier to see your team contending after a 96-win season than it is when coming off an 81-win season, even if the team is basically the same. I'll worry about whether I think the team can contend when the roster is complete. But I've been wrong about how the team would do so many times that I don't really believe my opinion has much meaning.

There is a large amount of uncertainty in any projection, even with the knowledge of rosters and injuries in late March. You can't make any firm judgments about the 2016 season in January. Predictions from now are more about the predictor than the prediction.

[wildcard]

Interestingly, all the projections I've seen have Schoop regressing in 2016. Not saying I agree with them....

I have seen reports of regression for both Manny and Schoop. For Pete sake. They are 23 and 24 years old. The can save the regression projections for when they are in their 30s.

[Babypowder]

Interestingly, all the projections I've seen have Schoop regressing in 2016. Not saying I agree with them....

Looking at his plate discipline numbers and batted ball data, that isn't far fetched.

[Frobby]

I have seen reports of regression for both Manny and Schoop. For Pete sake. They are 23 and 24 years old. The can save the regression projections for when they are in their 30s.

I remember when PECOTA projected Nick Markakis would regress in 2009, at age 25. Everyone here was outraged, me included. He'd just gone .799, .848, .897. Why would anyone think he'd go backwards? But he did. I'm sure these projection systems have their reasons.

[Fan4Life]

Arizona is not a pitcher friendly park. Chris Carter - career OPS+ 110. Mark Trumbo OPS + 110 - Pedro Alvarez OPS + 107 - John Jaso OPS + 116

Carter signed for 2.5M with an option

Jason signed for 2/8M

Trumbo figures to make at least 8M in arbitration if not more.

If Trumbo DH's, he's a bad value. It shouldn't take 6M to sign Alvarez but I don't doubt that the Orioles will pay that much.

Can we choose to cut Trumbo loose? What's the timing for his actual contract negotiations and when we may know if we need him or not?

[Frobby]

Aren't we on the hook for $9 mil?

No. We can cut him any time before mid-March and only pay 1/6 of his contract. And if we cut him before his 2016 salary is set, we only have to pay 1/6 of whatever contract was tendered to him (which is probably a $5.5 mm contract, which is the minimum we are allowed to offer). So, it probably costs $900k to cut him before arbitration, $1.4 mm to cut him after his salary has been set.

[Fan4Life]

Aren't we on the hook for $9 mil?

I thought so but his comment "Trumbo figures to make at least 8M in arbitration if not more." gave me the impression perhaps not.

[Aristotelian]

I'll worry about whether I think the team can contend when the roster is complete. But I've been wrong about how the team would do so many times that I don't really believe my opinion has much meaning.

Fair enough. However, it is important to have an accurate sense of where the team is now because decisions based on the assumption that we are contending could cost us draft picks or get us into bad long term deals that hurt us down the road. I am ready to worry now because most, if not all, of the players who could have improved our talent level are gone.

For the rotation, treading water with Chen is the best we can do, and even that is unlikely. Gallardo or Kennedy might arguably be comparable to Chen, but both would cost our #14. It seems we are looking at a rotation that is worse on paper than last year or a potentially long term decision.

On offense/defense, we could maybe improve incrementally by either re-signing Davis or go with a combination of Upton and Alvarez. Combined with Trumbo and Kim, I think either of those would give us some incremental improvement over last year's team, but the first would be a bad contract long term while the second seems highly unlikely and would cost our #14.

If we do sign Upton or Davis, that reduces the possibility of signing Chen to nil, meaning that any incremental improvement on offense is going to be offset by less talent in the rotation. Even in a best-case scenario we are left with a baseline of essentially the same talent level but hoping for guys to have breakout or bounce-back years.

Do you see a realistic way to improve the team on paper, or are you just hoping that we catch a bunch of breaks and the season plays out better than expected? Sure, the games have to be played and it's always possible we exceed expectations. I hope that happens. I also do not want to give up our #14 or get into bad contracts trying to compete with the current team.

I am also not saying that I think DD has done a bad job or that I would do anything differently. All teams go through cycles of contending and rebuilding. Right now I don't see a contender. I don't even see a scenario where we could be a contender.

[Frobby]

Fair enough. However, it is important to have an accurate sense of where the team is now because decisions based on the assumption that we are contending could cost us draft picks or get us into bad long term deals that hurt us down the road. I am ready to worry now because most, if not all, of the players who could have improved our talent level are gone.

For the rotation, treading water with Chen is the best we can do, and even that is unlikely. Gallardo or Kennedy might arguably be comparable to Chen, but both would cost our #14. It seems we are looking at a rotation that is worse on paper than last year or a potentially long term decision.

On offense/defense, we could maybe improve incrementally by either re-signing Davis or go with a combination of Upton and Alvarez. Combined with Trumbo and Kim, I think either of those would give us some incremental improvement over last year's team, but the first would be a bad contract long term while the second seems highly unlikely and would cost our #14.

If we do sign Upton or Davis, that reduces the possibility of signing Chen to nil, meaning that any incremental improvement on offense is going to be offset by less talent in the rotation. Even in a best-case scenario we are left with a baseline of essentially the same talent level but hoping for guys to have breakout or bounce-back years.

Do you see a realistic way to improve the team on paper, or are you just hoping that we catch a bunch of breaks and the season plays out better than expected? Sure, the games have to be played and it's always possible we exceed expectations. I hope that happens. I also do not want to give up our #14 or get into bad contracts trying to compete with the current team.

I am also not saying that I think DD has done a bad job or that I would do anything differently. All teams go through cycles of contending and rebuilding. Right now I don't see a contender. I don't even see a scenario where we could be a contender.

I think it's unlikely that the team will look better "on paper." As I said a day or two ago, I think last year's team underperformed a bit, and if we returned Davis and Chen I'd peg this as an 85-win team, but with the potential to finish anywhere in the 77-93 win range depending on whether we got the breaks or not. Right now, without those two, we are most likely a sub-.500 team.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't even see a scenario where we could be a contender.

I think that's fairly straightforward. Resign Davis despite the long-term meh, and he puts up a 4-6 win season. Schoop at least holds ground, just over 150 games. Hardy has a moderate bounce back to a 1-2 win season. Machado improves a little bit and is again a strong MVP candidate. Kim is reasonably good with a .700-ish OPS that's OBP heavy. Jones has his 2015 season again. RF is just not a disaster. Tillman has his 2014. Gausman throws 170 innings to a 3.50. Britton, O'Day, Brach, and Givens are all pretty good. Ubaldo gives us 170 innings of a 4.25. Wright or Wilson or somebody is okay. Wieters plays well. Gonzalez pitches a little better.

I don't even think all of that has to happen to make them a contender.

[wildcard]

No. We can cut him any time before mid-March and only pay 1/6 of his contract. And if we cut him before his 2016 salary is set, we only have to pay 1/6 of whatever contract was tendered to him (which is probably a $5.5 mm contract, which is the minimum we are allowed to offer). So, it probably costs $900k to cut him before arbitration, $1.4 mm to cut him after his salary has been set.

Are you sure this is true for players with 5 years of service?

[Frobby]

I think that's fairly straightforward. Resign Davis despite the long-term meh, and he puts up a 4-6 win season. Schoop at least holds ground, just over 150 games. Hardy has a moderate bounce back to a 1-2 win season. Machado improves a little bit and is again a strong MVP candidate. Kim is reasonably good with a .700-ish OPS that's OBP heavy. Jones has his 2015 season again. RF is just not a disaster. Tillman has his 2014. Gausman throws 170 innings to a 3.50. Britton, O'Day, Brach, and Givens are all pretty good. Ubaldo gives us 170 innings of a 4.25. Wright or Wilson or somebody is okay. Wieters plays well. Gonzalez pitches a little better.

I don't even think all of that has to happen to make them a contender.

I don't think all of that has to happen, either. But the starting pitching needs to be considerably better, and that involves having some guys doing much better than last year and a plausible performance from whoever fills the fifth spot in the rotation.