Who do you want?

[isestrex]

1. Davis (Lefty)

2. Upton

3. Cespedes

[Sanfran327]

I vote Cespedes. Shortest commitment and keep our picks. We already have Trumbo at 1B but we need an OF who can play good D.

I would also be OK with rolling with Alvarez or Morneau and waiting til next year.

Cespedes, the pick, and Alvarez would be a nice, tidy package. I'd put a bow on it if I were DD.

[ChuckS]

I'd offer Upton 7/128

That's the problem with broadcasting to the world that you offered CD 7/154. The players and agents know you have the money and think you are holding out if they don't get a similar deal. I would would offer Upton 7/128 as well because overpaying a little in my mind is a better alternative to doing nothing to improve the team. I just don't think the market has dictated that he is worth quite that much at this point.

[Ven6]

Cespedes.

Cheapest overall.

Shortest deal.

Keep pick.

Good D.

Hits righties well.

[Nevermore]

Forget Davis. We need to move on. I voted for Cespedes.

[drdelaware]

I vote Upton

Let's take a look at recent O's #1 picks

2007 Matt Wieters C Round 5 Grade B

2008 Brian Matusz P Round 4 Grade D

2009 Matthew Hobgood P Round 5 Grade F

2010 Manny Machado SS Round 3 Grade A+

2011 Dylan Bundy P Round 4 Grade Incomplete

2012 Kevin Gausman P Round 4 Grade Incomplete

2013 Hunter Harvey P Round 22 Grade Incomplete

2014 No 1st Round Pick

2015 DJ Stewart OF Round 25 Too early to tell

2015 Ryan Mountcastle SS Round 36 Too early to tell

Not the best track record. Give up the pick for some immediate help.

[DrungoHazewood]

I vote Upton

Let's take a look at recent O's #1 picks

2007 Matt Wieters C Round 5 Grade B

2008 Brian Matusz P Round 4 Grade D

2009 Matthew Hobgood P Round 5 Grade F

2010 Manny Machado SS Round 3 Grade A+

2011 Dylan Bundy P Round 4 Grade Incomplete

2012 Kevin Gausman P Round 4 Grade Incomplete

2013 Hunter Harvey P Round 22 Grade Incomplete

2014 No 1st Round Pick

2015 DJ Stewart OF Round 25 Too early to tell

2015 Ryan Mountcastle SS Round 36 Too early to tell

Not the best track record. Give up the pick for some immediate help.

a) It's not a bad track record. Even if Manny was the only guy on the list who worked out, wouldn't you be pretty careful about throwing away a 1-in-10 chance at a HOF-caliber player? What if the team had used your recommended plan prior to 2007 or 2010? They would have traded $100M+ in surplus value for expensive short-term fixes.

b) If you're going to assume that poor picks in the past mean that future picks are likely worthless you've decided that a sustainable, reasonably-priced successful Orioles team is exceptionally unlikely.

[Babypowder]

One nitpick with the poll. The contract for Davis should show 7/150m. We know that's the offer in real value. Good chance that's the deal if they sign him.

That was already a bad deal in my opinion. At this point, if it still occurs it will be lampooned almost universally outside of Baltimore.

That said, I agree with the poll change. I don't see how Boras and Davis can agree to less here.

[ChuckS]

One nitpick with the poll. The contract for Davis should show 7/150m. We know that's the offer in real value. Good chance that's the deal if they sign him.

Maybe, but it makes no sense if there is no other offer out there. Maybe they could work out a 5/125 deal giving him slightly more AAV. Some compromise where Boras and Davis save a little face. I just don't see a scenario where Davis gets the original offer unless Angelos is driving the ship and tosses Duquette overboard. 5/110 to 6/125 sounds to me about where his value is at and I don't see him getting a better offer from another team.

[TonySoprano]

Good poll. The options are all pretty close IMO, and all are better than the Davis deal that supposedly is "off the table." I went with Upton because he's younger than the other two and I think the difference in value is worth the pick.

Pretty close for sure

Career OPS +

Cespedes - 122, DOB 10/85

Davis - 122, DOB 3/86

Upton - 121 , DOB 8/87

Upton is the youngest by 17 months, but has the longest MLB career (9 years) vs. Davis (8 years), Cespedes (4 years).

[Ruzious]

Cespedes and keeping the pick is easily my first choice.

I'd lean toward Upton over Davis.

[Frobby]

a) It's not a bad track record. Even if Manny was the only guy on the list who worked out, wouldn't you be pretty careful about throwing away a 1-in-10 chance at a HOF-caliber player? What if the team had used your recommended plan prior to 2007 or 2010? They would have traded $100M+ in surplus value for expensive short-term fixes.

b) If you're going to assume that poor picks in the past mean that future picks are likely worthless you've decided that a sustainable, reasonably-priced successful Orioles team is exceptionally unlikely.

I agree with all this. That said, there's a pretty big difference between the no. 14 pick and a top 5 pick, especially the no. 3 pick that yielded Manny and the no. 5 pick that yielded Wieters. In those drafts, there was a broad consensus that Machado and Wieters were very obvious choices in their slots (in fact, most were surprised Wieters didn't go higher). By no. 14, there's never a consensus about anything. I would not be hesitant to give up the no. 14 for Upton, who, let's not forget, was the first player drafted in the 2005 draft and has justified that selection. (I'm not saying he turned out to be the best player drafted in 2005, but at 24.7 rWAR by age 28 he's been a very worthy pick.)

[joeyc]

Cespedes. No pick lost. Upton is 2nd choice.

And Cespedes turned the Mets whole season around last year. Upton never made that kind of an impact. I'll take Cespedes.

[DoubleStufOriole]

This may be wishful thinking, but I'd love to see the O's sign Cespedes as soon as possible now that OFs are coming off the board. Then, once Davis realizes that the team is a) Putting together a good line-up and serious about competing and b) He doesn't have anyone else interested in his services, he can sign for a shorter, less expensive deal (kind of like Gordon did with KC).

Like I said, may be a pipe dream, but adding Cespedes and Davis and keeping a pick would be amazing (and it would give us a more dangerous line-up than the Blue Jays had last year).

[Aristotelian]

I vote Upton

Let's take a look at recent O's #1 picks

2007 Matt Wieters C Round 5 Grade B

2008 Brian Matusz P Round 4 Grade D

2009 Matthew Hobgood P Round 5 Grade F

2010 Manny Machado SS Round 3 Grade A+

2011 Dylan Bundy P Round 4 Grade Incomplete

2012 Kevin Gausman P Round 4 Grade Incomplete

2013 Hunter Harvey P Round 22 Grade Incomplete

2014 No 1st Round Pick

2015 DJ Stewart OF Round 25 Too early to tell

2015 Ryan Mountcastle SS Round 36 Too early to tell

Not the best track record. Give up the pick for some immediate help.

Gausman has already pitched close to a full year as an MLB starter, and also contributed greatly to our 2014 playoff run. I would say he is a B+ with the possibility of an A. If that is what you mean by "incomplete" then I am OK with the list.

That actually seems like a pretty good track record to me. I don't see a good argument either way based on this list. I still say Cespedes and keep the pick.