Wei-Yin Chen to the Marlins (5 yrs - $80M)

[srock]

To me it's very odd to have a backloaded contract with an opt-out. It seems exceptionally unlikely that someone entering what should be their decline phase would opt-out of the most lucrative part of a market-rate-ish deal. Unless Chen sees this as a chance to get out of Miami if Loria goes into full-on freebasing LSD mode, as he has in the past. Or he just wants the option to get all the money in the very unlikely case he pitches much better than he ever has before. Or maybe his agent thinks the cable bubble has a lot more expansion in it and a win will be worth a lot more in two years?

I'm listening to Bowie's Berlin trilogy at the moment. Reading "full-on freebasing LSD mode" gave me the freaking creeps.

And yes I also think the opt-out for Chen is more of an opportunity to bail on a sinking ship if he needs to.

And I don't think the Orioles had much interest in keeping him. I guess a fly ball pitcher with low K rates is unlikely to age well in OPACY. Still, he was the best arm available right now.

[Beef Supreme]

To me it's very odd to have a backloaded contract with an opt-out. It seems exceptionally unlikely that someone entering what should be their decline phase would opt-out of the most lucrative part of a market-rate-ish deal. Unless Chen sees this as a chance to get out of Miami if Loria goes into full-on freebasing LSD mode, as he has in the past. Or he just wants the option to get all the money in the very unlikely case he pitches much better than he ever has before. Or maybe his agent thinks the cable bubble has a lot more expansion in it and a win will be worth a lot more in two years?

People are freebasing LSD now? i am so out of the loop.

[DrungoHazewood]

People are freebasing LSD now? i am so out of the loop.

I really don't know much of anything about drugs but it seemed like the kind of thing that Loria might try.

[Frobby]

That definitely changes the calculus a little bit. The earlier reports indicated that only $20M would be paid over the first two years. Still, I don't expect a 2-ish WAR pitcher to be worth $17.3M a year three years from now, but if he takes a step forward he could actually exercise the opt-out.

I agree that an opt-out with 3/$52 mm is much more likely to be exercised than an opt-out with 3/$60 mm remaining. It's certainly no slam dunk that he'll exercise it. FWIW, fangraphs says he's been worth $55.6 mm over the last three years. So, two years like his last two, plus inevitable salary inflation in the interim, probably would lead him to opt out.