Wei-Yin Chen to the Marlins (5 yrs - $80M)

[weams]

With interest rates as low as they are, deferral really doesn't reduce the economic value all that much.

No. But The Marlins won't pay him more than 20 million. That's for certain. And Boras got his 80. Like you have indicated that he almost always does.

[TradeAngelos]

This is not nearly as good a player deal as the AAV would indicate.

I think Chen didn't get the offer on the west coast he wanted so he took an opt out deal if he thinks he can get it later. 10/10 up front was the price he had to pay to get himself a get out of Miami free card.

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Ya'll realize the full contract is guaranteed right? The value of an extra 10m in cash over the first 2 yrs if it was evenly structured is hardly anything. He will get his 80m (or 96m) eventually. All of it.

Boras got yet another client a great deal, as usual. And I am sure Chen is happy with 80-96m guaranteed dollars, whenever it comes. Or more with his nice little opt out.

[MurphDogg]

No. But The Marlins won't pay him more than 20 million. That's for certain. And Boras got his 80. Like you have indicated that he almost always does.

You don't think they will have to kick in some money to dump him in 2 years with a 3/$60M contract? 32 year-old 2-ish WAR pitchers won't be making $20M a year in 2018, and that is Chen's most likely outcome.

[abbott]

So you would have overpaid for him? You said he was worth 15M in another thread.

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Yes. I would have made the deal he signed. We have no capacity to replace. Every pitcher will have to improve over last season.

If Chen isn't worth 5/80, who out there will sign for less but provide his numbers?

[Roll Tide]

I wouldn't have been crazy about giving Chen 5 years ...but in comparison to the other pitchers the 16million per he got is more than fair. Anyone here saying he isn't is kidding themselves. Chen was our best starting pitcher by a lot. Gallardo is the only thing close left.

IMO DD has really screwed up unless he has a trade up his sleeve.

[abbott]

I wouldn't have been crazy about giving Chen 5 years ...but in comparison to the other pitchers the 16million per he got is more than fair. Anyone here saying he isn't is kidding themselves. Chen was our best starting pitcher by a lot. Gallardo is the only thing close left.

IMO DD has really screwed up unless he has a trade up his sleeve.

The truth, that the warehouse believes, is that Chen that has topped out. They got excess production from him relative to cost over the 4 years. Over paying him now is not needed. His replacements will be cost effective even though production may not be re-acquired in any one or two players.

Payroll will be greater 2016 by 6-9 million, without Chen and Davis. The Orioles are essentially saying that the added cost won't be offset by added revenue, and no amount of winning is worth crossing the budget.

[FanSince88]

Yes. I would have made the deal he signed. We have no capacity to replace. Every pitcher will have to improve over last season.

If Chen isn't worth 5/80, who out there will sign for less but provide his numbers?

We would have had to pay him more than the Marlins did. Chen doesn't seem like the type to be sentimental, and our ballpark and division are a lot less pitcher-friendly than the Marlins home field in the crappy NL East.

I bet he wouldn't have signed with us for any less than 5/90, without the deferrals but with the opt-out.

[backwardsk]

Yes. I would have made the deal he signed. We have no capacity to replace. Every pitcher will have to improve over last season.

If Chen isn't worth 5/80, who out there will sign for less but provide his numbers?

I would have signed Price.

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[Morgan423]

Jennings is a National.

Oh yeah. Forgot that Miami fired him.

[abbott]

We would have had to pay him more than the Marlins did. Chen doesn't seem like the type to be sentimental, and our ballpark and division are a lot less pitcher-friendly than the Marlins home field in the crappy NL East.

I bet he wouldn't have signed with us for any less than 5/90, without the deferrals but with the opt-out.

I don't think the O's made an offer to Chen.

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[Can_of_corn]

I don't think the O's made an offer to Chen.

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Sure they did, 1 year 15.8 million.

I don't think they talked much after he turned it down.

[FanSince88]

Chen's strategy is pretty clear here.

Pitch in an extremely pitcher friendly division and ballpark for two years at below market value and hope you put up some real sexy stats, and get a better deal than 3/60 either in AAV or length.

If you don't, your consolation prize is a 100% raise for 3 years guaranteed.

Not too shabby. But no way he makes this deal with the Orioles. The key is the extremely favorable pitching conditions he'll have for two years as he bets on himself.

And even in such a pitcher friendly division, I still think there's an 85% chance he refrains from opting out after 2 years. Going to be hard for another team to beat 3/60 in winter 2017 unless he posts up a sub-2.00 ERA one of those two seasons.

[TonySoprano]

Yeah, but this isn't a bad opt-out for the team. He is making below market rates for the pre opt-out years, so the only way he exercises it is if he becomes one of the top pitchers in the league and the Marlins still got a great deal of 2/$20M for what would have to be two great years. I can't see him doing better than 3/$60M 2 years from now unless he starts accruing some Cy Young votes.

The opt-out that people complain about is when players are making fair market value and then opt out. Every team in the Majors would be in on Chen for 2/$20M. Not necessarily so for a player making 8/$160M with an opt out after 4 years and 4/$80M remaining.

2/$28M before any opt-out

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Chen getting $8M signing bonus, $6M in 2016, $14M in ?17 before opt-out. Would walk from $52M over three years if he becomes FA.</p>— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="

">January 12, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[MurphDogg]

2/$28M before any opt-out

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Chen getting $8M signing bonus, $6M in 2016, $14M in ?17 before opt-out. Would walk from $52M over three years if he becomes FA.</p>? Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="

">January 12, 2016</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That definitely changes the calculus a little bit. The earlier reports indicated that only $20M would be paid over the first two years. Still, I don't expect a 2-ish WAR pitcher to be worth $17.3M a year three years from now, but if he takes a step forward he could actually exercise the opt-out.

[DrungoHazewood]

Chen's strategy is pretty clear here.

Pitch in an extremely pitcher friendly division and ballpark for two years at below market value and hope you put up some real sexy stats, and get a better deal than 3/60 either in AAV or length.

If you don't, your consolation prize is a 100% raise for 3 years guaranteed.

Not too shabby. But no way he makes this deal with the Orioles. The key is the extremely favorable pitching conditions he'll have for two years as he bets on himself.

And even in such a pitcher friendly division, I still think there's an 85% chance he refrains from opting out after 2 years. Going to be hard for another team to beat 3/60 in winter 2017 unless he posts up a sub-2.00 ERA one of those two seasons.

To me it's very odd to have a backloaded contract with an opt-out. It seems exceptionally unlikely that someone entering what should be their decline phase would opt-out of the most lucrative part of a market-rate-ish deal. Unless Chen sees this as a chance to get out of Miami if Loria goes into full-on freebasing LSD mode, as he has in the past. Or he just wants the option to get all the money in the very unlikely case he pitches much better than he ever has before. Or maybe his agent thinks the cable bubble has a lot more expansion in it and a win will be worth a lot more in two years?