Fangraphs: The Bottom of the Strike Zone

[weams]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-biggest-hypothetical-losers-of-a-raised-strike-zone/

A return to the 2009 strike zone would increase a team?s runs per game from 4.07 to 4.27, which matches up well with the median outcome of my simple-minded fool's table.

Raising the strike zone, certainly, would inject some offense back into baseball; that's MLB's endgame in this endeavor. While it might not come for a couple more years, it will be fascinating to see how our most extreme low-ball pitchers adjust, if and when the change is made, or perhaps even preliminarily, now that the seed?s been planted. If there's anything we can conclude from Manfred's inaugural season as commissioner, it's that he's nothing if not proactive.

[Can_of_corn]

Trade Britton!

Not sure what the wink is about. I would trade him in a heartbeat if they changed the zone.

I've been saying all along that a lot of his success is due to the changes in the zone and that I wouldn't be surprised if MLB made changes to move it back up.

His sinker flattens out when he has to elevate it.

[srock]

Not sure what the wink is about. I would trade him in a heartbeat if they changed the zone.

I've been saying all along that a lot of his success is due to the changes in the zone and that I wouldn't be surprised if MLB made changes to move it back up.

His sinker flattens out when he has to elevate it.

Evidence on that? My observation tells me his sinker is effective even when up in the zone?

To brooks baseball to investigate!

[Can_of_corn]

Evidence on that? My observation tells me his sinker is effective even when up in the zone?

To brooks baseball to investigate!

I should have used the past tense.

Maybe it doesn't now. I know when he was starting it did.

These days he isn't forced to elevate it very often.

[weams]

Not sure what the wink is about. I would trade him in a heartbeat if they changed the zone.

I've been saying all along that a lot of his success is due to the changes in the zone and that I wouldn't be surprised if MLB made changes to move it back up.

His sinker flattens out when he has to elevate it.

<iframe src="https://vine.co/v/O60MQ9zQnlx/embed/simple" width="600" height="600" frameborder="0"></iframe><script src="https://platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js"></script> I was there.

[Can_of_corn]

Look where the Catcher sets up.

[Spakman]

<iframe src="https://vine.co/v/O60MQ9zQnlx/embed/simple" width="600" height="600" frameborder="0"></iframe><script src="https://platform.vine.co/static/scripts/embed.js"></script> I was there.

Thanks for letting us relive that moment again. And over and over again.

[srock]

On 6/23 vs Boston Britton threw 19 sinkers with an average Vertical Location of 0.16 (thats above the average height of the strike zone).

BAL@BOS (6/23/15) 0.16

Vertical Movement was 2.63

On 9/15 vs Boston is threw 15 sinkers with an average vertical location of -0.92, they were low in the zone.

BOS@BAL (9/15/15) -0.92

Vertical movement was 2.67

If 0.4 difference in vertical movement signifanct? I don't really know.

I picked these dates because of a larger sample of sinkers thrown. It would take a quite a bit more work to aggregate a bigger sample size. Maybe I just found my Orioles Hackathon problem to solve

Better method would be a track all sinkers based on location and vertical movement. See if vertical movement decreases consistently with location.

Per those GIFS: I really didn't need that imagery in my head all day

And...one bad pitch does not a trend make.

[srock]

The thing is, batters think his sinker is going to be in the zone and then it disappears. Yeah he's a sinker baller, but he gets a ton of whiffs on those sinkers because of the velocity and movement. Will all batters suddenly lay off if the strike zone is tweaked? I doubt it, because baseball players aren't that smart or willing to change.

The better question, can Zach successfully bring his sinker up just enough that they still swing at it. We saw a higher zone in the playoffs vs the Royals and they manage to lay of the pitch.

[weams]

The better question, can Zach successfully bring his sinker up just enough that they still swing at it. We saw a higher zone in the playoffs vs the Royals and they manage to lay of the pitch.

They were told not to swing. And he had a baby.

[srock]

Yeah, no question bad things happen when he elevates. I think he could adjust, though. He also has a pretty sick slurve and maybe he can start utilizing a change up.

I don't necessarily agree. If his movement drops, then yeah he gets hammered, but does his movement correlate to location? I'm not so sure.

Can he adjust to a higher strike zone if hitters are laying of the sinker? Sometimes he will need to get called strikes if guys just stop swinging.

[Can_of_corn]

The thing is, batters think his sinker is going to be in the zone and then it disappears. Yeah he's a sinker baller, but he gets a ton of whiffs on those sinkers because of the velocity and movement. Will all batters suddenly lay off if the strike zone is tweaked? I doubt it, because baseball players aren't that smart or willing to change.

The better question, can Zach successfully bring his sinker up just enough that they still swing at it. We saw a higher zone in the playoffs vs the Royals and they manage to lay of the pitch.

I am going by what I saw when he was starting. He started off gangbusters as a starter, then the book came out and guys started taking the sinker, which wasn't being called a strike. He was forced to elevate it and it flattened out. He even went four seamer heavy a couple of starts.

Now maybe he has gained enough command of the pitch that even if the strike zone moves back up he will be able to adapt.

The Royals series would be a microcosm of what I remember seeing when he was starting and the zone was smaller.

[srock]

They were told not to swing. And he had a baby.

I suspect more hitters will be told not to swing. And more babies are common, quite common

[Can_of_corn]

They were told not to swing. And he had a baby.

They had scouted the ump.

[Can_of_corn]

He had exactly 1 start in which he looked like the Britton we know today, and that was his major league debut against the Yankees. After that, his velocity dropped and he had all those shoulder issues.

Not bothering to look up velocity tables but I think you are wrong. He has some starts where the batters stopped swinging at the sinker and he had a successful start in which he threw a lot of 4 seamers.