Camden Depot: 40-60-80- rule is dead

[weams]

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2016/02/say-goodbye-to-40-60-80-rule.html

[weams]

Arbitration players earned 29% in their first year, 41% in their second year and 59% in their third year, while Super Two players earned 23% indicating that the rule now is 25-30-40-60. Players that went through arbitration also earned more than players that didn’t. First year players saw a 20% increase, while second and third year players had a 10% increase. Given that this ignores the benefits of controlling a player for a longer time period, this indicates that signing quality team-controlled players to extensions is a good way of saving money.

Yes, and?

[weams]

Players earn considerably less in arbitration than the 40-60-80 rule suggests they should. This shows that they’re an even bigger bargain than originally considered and further shows the value of team controlled players. It also indicates that teams don’t save a large amount of money from extensions, but primarily benefit from having players under control for larger periods of time. It is also interesting that position players are better deals than both starting and relieving pitchers, perhaps indicating that it makes more sense to grow the bats and buy the arms.

Ah. There.

[Frobby]

I think all these models are very oversimplified. They only take into account service time and the prior season's performance. But in fact there's a big difference between a player who has been a consistently strong performer and somebody who had one good season, and generally, that is taken into account and is written in to the arbitration criteria.

I also think the relationship between service time and salary is not as simple as suggested.

[Frobby]

I was just reviewing the arbitration outcomes for 15 Orioles who have been eligible in the last two years (but I went through these players' whole arbitration history even if it went back more than two years). What I found was that if you are a healthy regular or starting pitcher, you'll get about a $2 mm raise in arbitration even if you had a lousy year. Examples:

Tillman 2016 -- raise of $1.905 mm after a 0.8 WAR season (2.4 the previous season)

Gonzalez 2016 -- raise of $1.825 mm after a 0.7 WAR season (2.1 the previous season)

Davis 2015 -- raise of $1.65 mm after a 1.8 WAR season (6.5 the previous season)

Wieters 2014 -- raise of $2.2 mm after an 0.6 WAR season (3.5 the previous season)

De Aza 2014 -- raise of $2.175 mm after a 0.0 WAR season (2.5 the previous season)(raise given by the White Sox)

Trumbo 2014 -- raise of $2.1 mm after a -1.1 WAR season (2.1 the previous season)(won an arbitration with the D-Backs, who had offered $5.3 mm).