The Spring Training Overreaction Thread

[TouchemAll]

Hardy will hit 73 HRs this year!

That actually sounds about the right amount that will be needed to support this pitching staffs ERA.

[Frobby]

Better hope that's a bigger jump than most of those other years... Otherwise we're looking at a 6.00 ERA.

Yeah, I'm pretty confident we aren't looking at a 6.00 ERA. But we're probably going to need a sub-4.00 ERA to make the playoffs, even if (as I expect) we score 20-50 runs more than last year.

[JLee2027]

I can only hope this guy knows what he's doing:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/spring-training-stats-that-matter/

Last, I figured I would also test spring ERA one more time to see if we can glean anything from it. As expected, the results proved that it?s all noise.

Conclusions:

-Spring K% and BB% actually do mean something and may help identify breakout and bust performers for the upcoming season

-Good and bad springs carry the same level of significance and they should therefore be treated equally

-Spring ERA is completely useless

[Bahama O's Fan]

I can only hope this guy knows what he's doing:

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/spring-training-stats-that-matter/

Last, I figured I would also test spring ERA one more time to see if we can glean anything from it. As expected, the results proved that it?s all noise.

Conclusions:

-Spring K% and BB% actually do mean something and may help identify breakout and bust performers for the upcoming season

-Good and bad springs carry the same level of significance and they should therefore be treated equally

-Spring ERA is completely useless

I hope this is right, but it would be interesting for someone to post top and bottom ERA for Spring and compare to their season to their spring to see if there is any correlation at all.

[Br10n]

Yeah, I'm pretty confident we aren't looking at a 6.00 ERA. But we're probably going to need a sub-4.00 ERA to make the playoffs, even if (as I expect) we score 20-50 runs more than last year.

I think 4.00 to 4.25 gets it done.

[weams]

Hey, this isn't the Spring Training Carefully Measured Reaction Thread.

It certainly is NOT!

[scOtt]

I don't get up that early.

I had to set my alarm to get up for today's game.

[scOtt]

I had to set my alarm to get up for today's game.

Crack of frickin' NOON!

[SeaBird]

Going into today's game, the Orioles had a team ERA of 6.30.

That sounds bad on the surface. But the 1930 Phillies played in a bandbox and had a team ERA of 6.71 for the season.

So take comfort, fans--the O's pitching is not on pace to be the worst in major league history.

Fans will feel much better knowing the Orioles will not have the worst team ERA in MLB history; just the worst team ERA in the last 86 years.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm not seeing any reason to think that the pitching will be good this year. As Frobby said, a few weeks ago it didn't matter....but now with roughly a week to go left in ST, I was hoping for some better performances. I'm not seeing any reasons to think we'll have a good rotation this year. I've never really trusted Tillman, Ubaldo is consistently inconsistent, Gonzo's stuff looks to be gone and...is there anyone else I should be hopeful for?

Oh, this is the part where Drungo reminds me that the games don't count. :rolleyestf:

[Ohfan67]

Although I do t think individual spring training stats mean that much, there's no doubt the Orioles have looked pretty ugly. I'm a bit bummed and am anxious about the season.

[DrungoHazewood]

Oh, this is the part where Drungo reminds me that the games don't count. :rolleyestf:

I know that being hopeful and optimistic is a sign of a weak and troubled mind. I'm trying to fix that with intensive therapy and drugs.

[Ripken]

You forgot Gallardo, who I'm sure will get the stuffing beat out of him by the Red Sox today.

It's okay. That shoulder is fine and he's just "working" on some stuff. These aren't the droids you're looking for.

[OFFNY]

You forgot Gallardo, who I'm sure will get the stuffing beat out of him by the Red Sox today.

Gallardo will get bombed today no matter what happens.

He'll either get bombed on the mound when he pitches, or he'll get bombed off of the mound by the cynics when he's finished because the Red Sox are playing their AAA-lineup.

[OFFNY]

You forgot Gallardo, who I'm sure will get the stuffing beat out of him by the Red Sox today.

Gallardo will get bombed today no matter what happens.

He'll either get bombed on the mound when he pitches, or he'll get bombed off of the mound by the cynics when he's finished, because the Red Sox are playing their AAA-lineup.

Actually, it's half and half.

4 Major Leaguers, 4 Minor Leaguers, and 1 "Tweener."

That should still should be enough to downplay it in the event that he pitches well.