Brian Gonzalez, LHP

[ChuckS]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

So, Gonzalez had to repeat Delmarva and did well the second time though at a still-young age 20 in 2016.    He was disappointing at Frederick at age 21 (4.91 ERA) and is repeating there this year at age 22.    He’s off to a nice start through 2 games with a 2.53 ERA and 13 K’s In 10.2 IP.     I’d think he’s someone who could get bumped to Bowie at some point this year, making room for Baumann or Lowther to move up to Frederick.   

Don't forget Cameron Bishop.  Also 22, also pitching very well, also old for the Sally league.  

I'd like to see the following on May 15 if all parties involved are pitching well as they have been so far:  Wells to Bowie, Alvarado to Bowie, Gonzalez to Bowie, Baumann to Frederick, Lowther to Frederick, and Bishop to Frederick. 

And I don't think that's rushing things at all.  These 22 year old starters who have already proven themselves against college competition gain nothing by continuing to dominate 19 and 20 year players who are just out of high school.  In Alvarado's and Gonzalez's cases they are repeating Frederick and weren't horrible there last year.  Wells just needs to be challenged IMO.  We've yet to see him struggle at all really.  

 

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

 These 22 year old starters who have already proven themselves against college competition gain nothing by continuing to dominate 19 and 20 year players who are just out of high school.

The typical low A player is not 19-20 and just out of high school.  75% of the players are 21 and over.  There are tons of players there who were drafted out of college last year.

[ChuckS]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

The typical low A player is not 19-20 and just out of high school.  75% of the players are 21 and over.  There are tons of players there who were drafted out of college last year.

Don't the older players tend to be organizational filler?  How many real prospects in low A are 22 and 23 years old? 

Regardless, the combination of age, performance, and draft position should be enough to have these guys on the fast track.  

 

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Don't the older players tend to be organizational filler?  How many real prospects in low A are 22 and 23 years old? 

Regardless, the combination of age, performance, and draft position should be enough to have these guys on the fast track.  

 

Brandon McKay 4th overall last year, he’s there

JB Bukauskas 15th overall, he’s there

I’m not disagreeing with you, I don’t think any of the 22 year olds should spend an entire season in Delmarva if pitching well. Just saying that while it’s a conservative placement, it isn’t a radical placement.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Don't the older players tend to be organizational filler?  How many real prospects in low A are 22 and 23 years old? 

Regardless, the combination of age, performance, and draft position should be enough to have these guys on the fast track.  

 

 

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Brandon McKay 4th overall last year, he’s there

JB Bukauskas 15th overall, he’s there

I’m not disagreeing with you, I don’t think any of the 22 year olds should spend an entire season in Delmarva if pitching well. Just saying that while it’s a conservative placement, it isn’t a radical placement.

There’s a big difference between 22 and 23.    Most college guys are drafted at 21.    If they play low A the next year, that’s 22.    23 means they’ve been held back, were old when they were in college, or were drafted out of high school and have been very slow in developing.   

I had a look at the five college players drafted ahead of Lowther, and the five drafted ahead of Baumann.    In each case, one of the five isn’t playing, presumably due to injuries.    Also in each case, two of the remaining four are playing in high A, and one of those two is 23 years old already.    In each case, the other two are playing in low A.    So, I think what you’d say is that it’s pretty common to start college players with their draft pedigree in low A, but also not unusual to start them in high A.    So, that argues in favor of being open to an in-season promotion if these guys are dominating at low A.   I’m fine with that, but I don’t consider 1-2 starts to be sufficient to tell if they are dominating.    As someone pointed out, Cody Sedlock dominated in his first couple outings last year and some people wanted an immediate promotion.   By the end of April he was struggling.   So, let’s let Baumann and Lowther get 6-8 starts under their belts before getting too excited about their performance.   (Maybe Bishop too, though he hasn’t been quite as dominant.)

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

 

There’s a big difference between 22 and 23.    Most college guys are drafted at 21.    If they play low A the next year, that’s 22.    23 means they’ve been held back, were old when they were in college, or were drafted out of high school and have been very slow in developing.   

I had a look at the five college players drafted ahead of Lowther, and the five drafted ahead of Baumann.    In each case, one of the five isn’t playing, presumably due to injuries.    Also in each case, two of the remaining four are playing in high A, and one of those two is 23 years old already.    The other two are playing in low A.    So, I think what you’d say is that it’s pretty common to start college players with their draft pedigree in low A, but also not unusual to start them in high A.    So, that argues in favor of being open to an in-season promotion if these guys are dominating at low A.   I’m fine with that, but I don’t consider 1-2 starts to be sufficient to tell if they are dominating.    As someone pointed out, Cody Sedlock dominated in his first couple outings last year and some people wanted an immediate promotion.   By the end of April he was struggling.   So, let’s let Baumann and Lowther get 6-8 starts under their belts before getting too excited about their performance.   (Maybe Bishop too, though he hasn’t been quite as dominant.)

Dietz I think should get the nod (obviously contingent on performance) before Bishop and perhaps Baumann. He's repeating, he has premium stuff, and he is the kind of guy who'll hold his own as long as he throws strikes.

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Dietz I think should get the nod (obviously contingent on performance) before Bishop and perhaps Baumann. He's repeating, he has premium stuff, and he is the kind of guy who'll hold his own as long as he throws strikes.

I keep forgetting about Dietz.   Sure, he can be considered too.  As to who gets the nod, to me it’s all about performance (including whatever doesn’t show up on the stat sheet that might indicate one guy is more ready than another).   It should be interesting to follow.   

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I keep forgetting about Dietz.   Sure, he can be considered too.  As to who gets the nod, to me it’s all about performance (including whatever doesn’t show up on the stat sheet that might indicate one guy is more ready than another).   It should be interesting to follow.   

Dietz is the guy, of all the guys I watched last year, who was more impressive than his stat line. All the stuff is there, the makings of two plus pitches and a third average one. It's just command, the delivery was stiff and robotic, so that's part of the issue. But it was already improved significantly from his draft year. I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked if Dietz ends up as the best pitcher taken in the 2016 draft, which includes Sedlock, Akin, Hanifee, and Myers. 

[Frobby]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

Dietz is the guy, of all the guys I watched last year, who was more impressive than his stat line. All the stuff is there, the makings of two plus pitches and a third average one. It's just command, the delivery was stiff and robotic, so that's part of the issue. But it was already improved significantly from his draft year. I don't expect it, but I wouldn't be shocked if Dietz ends up as the best pitcher taken in the 2016 draft, which includes Sedlock, Akin, Hanifee, and Myers. 

For me, the word “command” should never be preceded by the word “just.”   Lack of command is the downfall of many a prospect, and we shouldn’t assume that command issues can always be improved materially through more reps and coaching.    Sometimes command improves, sometimes it stagnates or even degrades.    I hope Dietz’s command will improve; we’ll see.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, Frobby said:

For me, the word “command” should never be preceded by the word “just.”   Lack of command is the downfall of many a prospect, and we shouldn’t assume that command issues can always be improved materially through more reps and coaching.    Sometimes command improves, sometimes it stagnates or even degrades.    I hope Dietz’s command will improve; we’ll see.

I agree, that's an important and fair point. I definitely don't assume command can be improved unless I see a reason it could or should improve. Dietz's command falls at least into the could improve category. I'll know more once I see him this year.

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I agree, that's an important and fair point. I definitely don't assume command can be improved unless I see a reason it could or should improve. Dietz's command falls at least into the could improve category. I'll know more once I see him this year.

On top of it, Dietz is very raw with his baseball/pitching knowledge. He doesn't field his position well, he struggles to hold runners (from what I was told), he's not great at when a where to back up all the time. Some have actually questioned his desire to play baseball, but others have suggested he's just really inexperienced.

The arm is there, and the makings of some pitches are as well, but he's a real development project.

[Frobby]

Is Gonzalez still of any interest?   He repeated Delmarva at 20, now is repeating Frederick at 22.    Pretty decent so far — 3.90 ERA in 5 starts.    He had a solid day today: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K’s.    

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Is Gonzalez still of any interest?   He repeated Delmarva at 20, now is repeating Frederick at 22.    Pretty decent so far — 3.90 ERA in 5 starts.    He had a solid day today: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K’s.    

Our top pick from 2014.  Seems like he has just become passed over. The pitching depth/talent  has just gotten so much better. 

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

Is Gonzalez still of any interest?   He repeated Delmarva at 20, now is repeating Frederick at 22.    Pretty decent so far — 3.90 ERA in 5 starts.    He had a solid day today: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 6 K’s.    

I watched a couple of his starts, I honestly think he has less stuff than Alvarado. He can command it well for stretches but I think a good result would be middle relief depth.

[DirtyBird]

He's got a no-hitter going thru 7