BP: Baltimore's Annual Surprise Party

[Frobby]

[T]he Orioles are baseball's most absurd present dynasty. After playing Thug #2 to New York and Boston for more than a decade, Baltimore hasn't had a losing record since 2011, one of only four teams in baseball to hold such a distinction. Yet few have been impressed. The Orioles were the only team in the AL East that no BP author predicted to win the division, banished by most to the cellar. PECOTA assigned them the worst record in the American League. Their offseason victories mainly centered around overpaying for their own free agent-eligible players, and their top prospect graduated only because he would literally have been able to leave the team if they hadn't promoted him.

* * *

The team has only had two massive disappointments, which happen to be two of their most highly-paid players. Meanwhile, they've had seven players dramatically exceed expectations, and two of those (Manny Machado and Hyun-Soo Kim) so wildly that they nearly break the scale. This doesn't mean that the team is flawless; Mike Wright isn't a huge disappointment in terms of predictions, because he's been just slightly worse than the terrible output PECOTA expected of him. There are still plenty of holes on the roster.

* * *

The distinctive characteristic of team-building in the modern era of baseball is its strategy: The advantage, the loophole, the grand plan that gives a team an advantage over all others. The examples are well worn by now, but we still think of teams in terms of the edges they seek. Moneyball is cliche, but we still have the Dodgers' health research, Pittsburgh's pitching philosophy, and the Rangers' international scouting.

As Jonathan Bernhardt detailed in his essay for the 2016 BP Annual, Baltimore lacks any such identity. They don't draft particularly well, or develop the players they draft. They're willing to spend, but they can't rival Boston or Los Angeles. Their president is an old hand, and their owner is meddlesome to the point of self-destruction. They don't do any one thing, in other words, that a fan or an analyst can pick out and say, "This is the logic. This is why this team wins."

* * *

It doesn't make sense that the Orioles are still a productive team. Yet here they...are, good enough to hang around until proven otherwise. It's been awhile since they have.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29668

The rest of the article is worth reading, but the bottom line is, BP can't figure us out.

[canonfaz]

Buck and Adam have a heck of a lot to do with it IMO. It seemed like Adam turned into a real leader and productive player once Buck showed up. I'm sure a lot of it is timing, but there is no doubt that Buck adds more than a few wins a year IMO.

You obviously have to have the talent to perform, but Buck is very good at putting players in the best situations possible. There is way more that goes into it than that, but generally, our team is built around power and defense, Adam, Manny, and Davis all have that. Add in a shut down bullpen, and hello playoffs! (hopefully).

[Can_of_corn]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=29668

The rest of the article is worth reading, but the bottom line is, BP can't figure us out.

How embarrassing for them that after naming Reimold the face of the team, they say he was released last season instead of in 2014.

[riprulz8]

"Meanwhile, they've had seven players dramatically exceed expectations, and two of those (Manny Machado and Hyun-Soo Kim) so wildly that they nearly break the scale."

I agree that Kim has been an incredible surprise, but not sure they are on point with Manny. "Dramatically exceeded expectations" and "...nearly break the scale" make it sound like Manny came out of nowhere. He was 4th in the MVP voting last year - last year was his coming out party. This year he has certainly taken it up a notch but not to the point where anyone should say "who the hell is THIS guy?" Maybe I'm picking nits, but that's just how that line struck me. Discuss...

[Can_of_corn]

"Meanwhile, they've had seven players dramatically exceed expectations, and two of those (Manny Machado and Hyun-Soo Kim) so wildly that they nearly break the scale."

I agree that Kim has been an incredible surprise, but not sure they are on point with Manny. "Dramatically exceeded expectations" and "...nearly break the scale" make it sound like Manny came out of nowhere. He was 4th in the MVP voting last year - last year was his coming out party. This year he has certainly taken it up a notch but not to the point where anyone should say "who the hell is THIS guy?" Maybe I'm picking nits, but that's just how that line struck me. Discuss...

He's in the 90%+ percentile for the PECOTA projection.

[CallMeBrooksie]

What were they projecting for Jones for him to be so far off of his mark?? He's had a pretty solid first half to this point... about what you'd expect from him

[backwardsk]

I would not call Jones and his 103 OPS+ a disappointment.

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[Can_of_corn]

What were they projecting for Jones for him to be so far off of his mark?? He's had a pretty solid first half to this point... about what you'd expect from him

I would not call Jones and his 103 OPS+ a disappointment.

I think some of the problem is his defense this year.

[riprulz8]

He's in the 90%+ percentile for the PECOTA projection.

OK. Well that explains their statement - not a fan of the whole projection system, though.

[CallMeBrooksie]

Greater than the sum of its parts.

A credit to:

-Buck, for consistently good in-game management and decision-making.

-DD, for consistently finding hidden value that nobody else saw coming, which has been able to mask some of his bigger gaffes.

-Peter Angelos, for opening the checkbook to keep this team together. Continuity in the clubhouse is impossible to quantify, but I think it's become a huge asset for the O's.

[esmd]

" The Orioles were the only team in the AL East that no BP author predicted to win the division, banished by most to the cellar. PECOTA assigned them the worst record in the American League."

This is just asinine. I dunno how anyone with any sense could say we'd be in last place in the AL East, and especially have the worst record in the AL. That's just dumb. I could understand saying we're a 75-80 win team, but worst record in the AL? Come on. We have one of the best offenses in the league and one of the top 'pens in the league. That alone is enough to keep those two things from happening even if the wheels fell off somewhat like last year. IMO this teams floor is 75 wins, and it's ceiling is somewhere around 90.

[hoosiers]

Good article. I am mystified by our present success, but it sure helps to have those seven guys exceed expectations by a lot. If DD can add a quality SP and perhaps an average one, this team very likely will continue to do damage. I really don't care for how the team was constructed, but we are flat out winning games and it may be more of a surprise, at this point, if it doesn't continue than if it does.

[BohKnowsBmore]

It doesn't make sense that the Orioles are still a productive team. Yet here they...are, good enough to hang around until proven otherwise. It's been awhile since they have.

I'm probably reading too much into this, but it appears to be like pulling teeth with these folks. Maybe this was just an attempt at a bit of flourish or style, but "good enough to hang around" seems like a bit of weak praise for a team with a record like that of the Orioles. Seems like even in admitting that the team bucks projections, the writer is having trouble giving them full marks.

[BohKnowsBmore]

This is just asinine. I dunno how anyone with any sense could say we'd be in last place in the AL East, and especially have the worst record in the AL. That's just dumb. I could understand saying we're a 75-80 win team, but worst record in the AL? Come on. We have one of the best offenses in the league and one of the top 'pens in the league. That alone is enough to keep those two things from happening even if the wheels fell off somewhat like last year. IMO this teams floor is 75 wins, and it's ceiling is somewhere around 90.

I'm with you. How one could look at our roster in comparison to the NYY and TBR, for a start, and not think we would be every bit as good as them if not better is wild to me. Particularly since a not-insignificant group of prognosticators called the NYY to take the division.

[backwardsk]

I think some of the problem is his defense this year.

Results in a "massive disappointment"?