TT: Is it time to try Mancini in the OF at Norfolk?

[Redskins Rick]

Because the market dictates such?

Drawing a hard line in the sand isn't a way to run a business when you waited until the last possible minute and had to start 2/3 of your outfield in platoon roles and have put up some really terrible numbers defensively.

I think my biggest issue is waiting until the last possible minute. It forced Duquette to sign an injured Gallardo, get screwed on Fowler and had to react and sign Pedro Alvarez. Making at least an average OF defensively (Jones, Fowler, Kim/Rickard) to a terrible OF defensively (Jones, Kim/Rickard/Reimold, Trumbo).

As for the opt out, it depends on how long the contract is and when the opt out is. But beggars can't be choosers.

What about the loss of offensive production, losing Trumbo and signing Fowler?

[LookitsPuck]

Couple of thoughts:

--didn't fowler sign a two year deal?

--how about Davis to RF next year?

He signed a one year deal to build up his value.

Essentially: Cubs offered him a QO, he declined...got a 3 year deal for $33m from the O's...declined due to no opt out...took a powder deal from the Cubs ($8m + $9m mutual option for 2017).

I have to imagine Dexter declines the option and goes for a bigger deal.

[Redskins Rick]

Couple of thoughts:

--didn't fowler sign a two year deal?

--how about Davis to RF next year?

Davis is the team's best 1st and GG (IMO) and should probably be left on 1st.

[OFFNY]

Davis is the team's best 1st and GG (IMO) and should probably be left on 1st.

o

I think that Davis is solid defensively at 1st base, and I agree that keeping him there would be a prudent decision. I'm not sure if he is a Gold Glover, which would imply that he is the best in the league, but I do think that he is solid ........ one of the top 4 or 5 in the league.

If you have a hole in a ship, and you try to plug up that hole by taking something away from another part of the ship that is working well, you often wind up with 2 holes ...... the one that already existed in the first place, and the new one that you created by trying to fix the original one by reassigning the already working part.

[atomic]

Couple of thoughts:

--didn't fowler sign a two year deal?

--how about Davis to RF next year?

Mutual option for 2017 at low salary.

[LookitsPuck]

What about the loss of offensive production, losing Trumbo and signing Fowler?

I mean...it depends on how you value offense.

If you strictly go by homers and RBIs, then Trumbo is your man (45, 104 vs. 13, 47)

If you look at oWAR, then Dexter wins (3.9) over Trumbo (2.4).

If you want to look at OPS+, then Dexter wins (126 vs. 114).

Slash lines are similar: .275/.389/.449 - .838 OPS (Dexter) vs. .248/.312/.524 - .835 OPS

Basically Dexter has a much better eye, hits less homers...but he's also a SH and I have to imagine he'd see an uptick in homers at OPACY as a LHH.

So, pick your poison. I think Fowler is a much better overall player than Trumbo...homers be damned.

I guess I don't like the teams reliance on the long ball. They go into hero ball mode and can't execute basic fundamentals.

[Redskins Rick]

I mean...it depends on how you value offense.

If you strictly go by homers and RBIs, then Trumbo is your man (45, 104 vs. 13, 47)

If you look at oWAR, then Dexter wins (3.9) over Trumbo (2.4).

If you want to look at OPS+, then Dexter wins (126 vs. 114).

Slash lines are similar: .275/.389/.449 - .838 OPS (Dexter) vs. .248/.312/.524 - .835 OPS

Basically Dexter has a much better eye, hits less homers...but he's also a SH and I have to imagine he'd see an uptick in homers at OPACY as a LHH.

So, pick your poison. I think Fowler is a much better overall player than Trumbo...homers be damned.

I guess I don't like the teams reliance on the long ball. They go into hero ball mode and can't execute basic fundamentals.

Dexter is only a .4 on the defense WAR and has a negative career WAR, so I dont see his being a huge upgrade over Trumbo.

I think Trumbo would have more RBIs, if people in front of him, would stop hitting homers.

I like his bat and its not just Homerun or nothing.

Like Trumbo, this is a career year for both with the bat.

[DrungoHazewood]

What about the loss of offensive production, losing Trumbo and signing Fowler?

Not that they're going to sign Fowler but he's having a much better all-around season than Trumbo. A little better offensively, much better in the field.

[LookitsPuck]

You're rating Fowler based on CF play. Think we'd see a decent amount of uptick in a COF spot.

My main point via the defense is you Trumbo who is arguably one of the worst defensive OFers in the game. Adding someone at least average is a big win. I don't want to go by just my eyes, but there have been at least 3 games in the last month or so that Trumbo's defense cost the team a win...or at the very least the lead.

[DrungoHazewood]

Dexter is only a .4 on the defense WAR and has a negative career WAR, so I dont see his being a huge upgrade over Trumbo.

I think Trumbo would have more RBIs, if people in front of him, would stop hitting homers.

I like his bat and its not just Homerun or nothing.

Like Trumbo, this is a career year for both with the bat.

Fowler is 24 runs better than an average hitter in 533 PAs. Trumbo is 12 in 642.

Fowler this year has been a +5 CFer per 150 games, Trumbo has been a -11 RFer and DH'd quite a bit. Fowler has been more than 20 runs better than Trumbo with the glove.

Add it all up and Trumbo is a 1.5-win player, Fowler almost five. It's not at all close.

If you want to look longer-term on OF defense, which is wise, Fowler and Trumbo have similar UZR/150 numbers. But Fowler in CF, Trumbo in the OF corners, so Fowler is about 10 runs/season ahead.

[Redskins Rick]

You're rating Fowler based on CF play. Think we'd see a decent amount of uptick in a COF spot.

My main point via the defense is you Trumbo who is arguably one of the worst defensive OFers in the game. Adding someone at least average is a big win. I don't want to go by just my eyes, but there have been at least 3 games in the last month or so that Trumbo's defense cost the team a win...or at the very least the lead.

If you look at the UZR/150 numbers, there are worse than Trumbo. Braun at 15.2 and Bruce @ 34.9 beats Trumbo's 13.5

[LookitsPuck]

If you look at the UZR/150 numbers, there are worse than Trumbo. Braun at 15.2 and Bruce @ 34.9 beats Trumbo's 13.5

Well, if you go by FanGraphs range of UZR...a 13.5 would put him between Poor and Awful. Braun at Awful. And Bruce Doubly Awful:

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/uzr/

I've got to imagine the only benefit Trumbo brings in OF is his arm strength. Everything else is just painful.

[DrungoHazewood]

If you look at the UZR/150 numbers, there are worse than Trumbo. Braun at 15.2 and Bruce @ 34.9 beats Trumbo's 13.5

Min. 500 defensive innings, Trumbo is 25th of 28 RFers in UZR/150.

On bb-ref Trumbo is 43rd of the 46 RFers who've appeared in 50+ games.

[Redskins Rick]

Well, if you go by FanGraphs range of UZR...a 13.5 would put him between Poor and Awful. Braun at Awful. And Bruce Doubly Awful:

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/uzr/

I've got to imagine the only benefit Trumbo brings in OF is his arm strength. Everything else is just painful.

I remember some posters wanted Bruce here as a COF.

[srock]

I just perused the leader board for defensive CF (rtot) at BBREF This one is active players.

Drew Stubbs is #3.

Michael Bourn is #5.

Then go look at the player pages. These guys basically put up 1 or 2 whopper seasons then return to average or even below average.

You can argue the merits of different defensive metrics, that's fine. My point is this:

Defense is wildly inconsistent. It is very hard to find a reliable top flight CF.

Bourn went from -12, -5, 25, 5, 34, 0, -6.

Stubs: 10, 19, 15, -1, -14. Part time player since.

This is far from a deep analysis but I would live to see the variance for defensive metrics. It has be bordering on unreliable.