Internal things that need to happen for us to win the AL East

[Frobby]

1. Tillman can't slip much. He's carried the rotation (O's are +13 in his starts), and he needs to continue to win the vast majority of his starts.

2. Gausman needs to find a way to win some games. He's pitching like a league-average starter, but the team is 6-9 in his starts due to a combination of lack of run support and Gausman's inability to hang on to leads. He's got to find a way to take it up a notch.

3. Gallardo needs to find a way to be a .500ish pitcher. His record is 3-1 and the team is 6-3 in his starts, but there's been a lot of luck involved in that. He's the prime candidate to have worse W/L results in the second half, and we can't afford to have him losing more than half his starts.

4. The offense is going to need to keep up its first-half performance. In my mind we've overperformed a bit offensively, and we'll need to continue doing that in the second half.

5. The bullpen will need to continue to be nails. Our relief core was 22-8 in the first half, and had a 74% save rate, with Britton at 100%.

Do those five things, and I think we can thread the needle and live with what comes when the 4th/5th starters pitch. But I think the odds are against that.

[ChuckS]

1. Tillman can't slip much. He's carried the rotation (O's are +13 in his starts), and he needs to continue to win the vast majority of his starts.

2. Gausman needs to find a way to win some games. He's pitching like a league-average starter, but the team is 6-9 in his starts due to a combination of lack of run support and Gausman's inability to hang on to leads. He's got to find a way to take it up a notch.

3. Gallardo needs to find a way to be a .500ish pitcher. His record is 3-1 and the team is 6-3 in his starts, but there's been a lot of luck involved in that. He's the prime candidate to have worse W/L results in the second half, and we can't afford to have him losing more than half his starts.

4. The offense is going to need to keep up its first-half performance. In my mind we've overperformed a bit offensively, and we'll need to continue doing that in the second half.

5. The bullpen will need to continue to be nails. Our relief core was 22-8 in the first half, and had a 74% save rate, with Britton at 100%.

Do those five things, and I think we can thread the needle and live with what comes when the 4th/5th starters pitch. But I think the odds are against that.

I agree with all of the above, but I think the MOST important thing is for us to find AT LEAST a consistent third starter. Tillman and Gausman have been the only starters that have performed passably.

We probably need four starters keeping us in games down the stretch to win the division. Gallardo needs to step up and hopefully we can add an additional arm at the deadline who can keep us in games.

[LookitsPuck]

Rep to you.

Big problem is this means that Tillman or Gausman can't get hurt. If one of those do, we're sunk. No ifs, ands or buts. We saw what happens when Tillman and Gausman pitch poorly. We lose. 3/5 of the rotation is bad to awful.

So, I'm going out on a limb: the O's won't make the playoffs unless they trade for a starter.

[bluedog]

I don't think that DD is going to play this close to the edge. I believe he will go out and get at least 2 new starting pitchers via trade. He will hope for Gallardo to pitch well, but he won't risk the season on it.

I expect something like this down the stretch;

Tillman

Gausman

Gallardo

trade acquisition

trade acquisition

Fallback in case of emergency;

Bundy

Wilson

Wright

Worley

Despaniage

If Gallardo falls apart or injury hits, I'm pretty happy with Bundy as an option. But only if we fill the two other slots with at least league average major league pitchers first.

[JohnD]

Tillman has basically no margin for error. Each loss puts a 4-5 game losing streak on the table, as we saw in Seattle.

They need a new even average pitcher, but I'm just not sure how it happens.

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[Nevermore]

I'm afraid that DD will end up trading Bundy or Wilson and/or a ton of prospects for a mediocre starter. That way, he can believe and say that he did do something.

[ChuckS]

I'm afraid that DD will end up trading Bundy or Wilson and/or a ton of prospects for a mediocre starter. That way, he can believe and say that he did do something.

I would love to trade Wilson for a mediocre starter. Wilson is mediocre at best, so that is a win.

[JohnD]

No way they trade Bundy unless it's a huge return.

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[ChuckS]

No way they trade Bundy unless it's a huge return.

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Yeah, I don't see it. Would be selling on him too low.

I'm expecting Mancini to be gone, I just hope it's not for a two month rental.

I don't want to see Sisco involved in a package for anything less than a TOR. There will likely be only two or three of those guys available and other teams have deeper systems to put a package together. I think Sisco stays, but if he is traded it's likely for a MOR type and I expect to see a lot of unhappy Hangouters.

[Frobby]

One of my worries is that we'll acquire a MOR starter or two, and it won't do the job. In 2013, we acquired Feldman (4.27 ERA that season for us) and Norris (4.80 ERA for us), and yet we played sub-.500 baseball in July, August and September after going 45-36 in the first half. Why? Because the offense cooled off from a very hot first half. Anyone who thinks it's "all about pitching" is wrong. It's all about scoring more runs than your opponent, whether that means 7-6 or 2-1.

[ChuckS]

One of my worries is that we'll acquire a MOR starter or two, and it won't do the job. In 2013, we acquired Feldman (4.27 ERA that season for us) and Norris (4.80 ERA for us), and yet we played sub-.500 baseball in July, August and September after going 45-36 in the first half. Why? Because the offense cooled off from a very hot first half. Anyone who thinks it's "all about pitching" is wrong. It's all about scoring more runs than your opponent, whether that means 7-6 or 2-1.

I would gladly take a Feldman performance from another starter for the last two months of the season.

We are more likely to outscore our opponents than we were in 2013 if we can get a 4.27 ERA from someone.

[weams]

I would gladly take a Feldman performance from another starter for the last two months of the season.

We are more likely to outscore our opponents than we were in 2013 if we can get a 4.27 ERA from someone.

Absolutely.

[weams]

One of my worries is that we'll acquire a MOR starter or two, and it won't do the job. In 2013, we acquired Feldman (4.27 ERA that season for us) and Norris (4.80 ERA for us), and yet we played sub-.500 baseball in July, August and September after going 45-36 in the first half. Why? Because the offense cooled off from a very hot first half. Anyone who thinks it's "all about pitching" is wrong. It's all about scoring more runs than your opponent, whether that means 7-6 or 2-1.

Very True. Our offense is much better this year though.

[Aristotelian]

One of my worries is that we'll acquire a MOR starter or two, and it won't do the job. In 2013, we acquired Feldman (4.27 ERA that season for us) and Norris (4.80 ERA for us), and yet we played sub-.500 baseball in July, August and September after going 45-36 in the first half. Why? Because the offense cooled off from a very hot first half. Anyone who thinks it's "all about pitching" is wrong. It's all about scoring more runs than your opponent, whether that means 7-6 or 2-1.

I agree, "good not great" seems to be Dan's MO. Feldman, Parra, Norris. Even Miller, while elite for his position, was an incremental move. We have given up most of our mid range prospects (although to be fair to DD, we have held onto Bundy, Harvey, KG, and Schoop). At some point we either need to go all in, or else hold onto our prospects to stay competitive long term. I don't see a guy worth going all in for this year so I am inclined to play it conservative.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Yeah, I don't see it. Would be selling on him too low.

I'm expecting Mancini to be gone, I just hope it's not for a two month rental.

I don't want to see Sisco involved in a package for anything less than a TOR. There will likely be only two or three of those guys available and other teams have deeper systems to put a package together. I think Sisco stays, but if he is traded it's likely for a MOR type and I expect to see a lot of unhappy Hangouters.

Not only would it be selling low on him, he's currently a positive contributor to the team right now. You would be subtracting from the present AND future to bolster the present. Not necessarily what you're looking to do in dealing prospects.

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