Tillman should be in Cy Young Conversation

[Frobby]

So are analytics.

And if voters just wanted to be dumb, they'd give it to the guy with the most wins every season. Hell, even better, they'd give it to the #1 starter on whatever team won the most games regardless of what the analytics (like strikeouts and walks!) say.

Analytics are great for trying to analyze whether current performance is sustainable or might improve or decline in the future. But let's say one pitcher wins 20 games with a 2.50 ERA, while another guy wins 12 games with a 3.50 ERA. The second guy has better peripherals, a better FIP and his record is demonstrably due to poor run support, whereas the first guy has good run support. In that instance, I'm voting for Pitcher # 1 for the Cy Young every time. If it's the offseason and both are free agents, maybe then I'm looking at the other stuff to analyze which pitcher I want to chase after.

[sportsfan8703]

Analytics are great and all but Tillman has some things going for him that won't show up there. Like the value of being the only good starter in a rotation, or being the stopper of the rotation. Plus we're a half game out of the division that nobody gave us a chance pre season.

If/when we make the playoffs, you're going to see this team get some individual awards.

The thing that hurts Tillman though is he won't have gaudy K numbers or a "dominant" whip.

He's probably got just a good as claim as MVP. If you go with the definition.

[Frobby]

Analytics are great and all but Tillman has some things going for him that won't show up there. Like the value of being the only good starter in a rotation, or being the stopper of the rotation. Plus we're a half game out of the division that nobody gave us a chance pre season.

If/when we make the playoffs, you're going to see this team get some individual awards.

The thing that hurts Tillman though is he won't have gaudy K numbers or a "dominant" whip.

He's probably got just a good as claim as MVP. If you go with the definition.

He might be the Orioles' MVP, in any event. When was the last time a pitcher won that award (the Orioles one)?

[Phantom]

Analytics are great for trying to analyze whether current performance is sustainable or might improve or decline in the future. But let's say one pitcher wins 20 games with a 2.50 ERA, while another guy wins 12 games with a 3.50 ERA. The second guy has better peripherals, a better FIP and his record is demonstrably due to poor run support, whereas the first guy has good run support. In that instance, I'm voting for Pitcher # 1 for the Cy Young every time. If it's the offseason and both are free agents, maybe then I'm looking at the other stuff to analyze which pitcher I want to chase after.

That's your opinion, and that's fine. I wouldn't necessarily vote for the first guy for the same reason I wouldn't vote for the #1 pitcher on the team with the most wins. You are (potentially) giving him credit for a bunch of things he had no control over. Analytics are great at predicting what is coming because they can tell you what actually happened, not how good a pitchers offense, defense or bullpen was.

[Phantom]

He might be the Orioles' MVP, in any event. When was the last time a pitcher won that award (the Orioles one)?

Is Manny Machado not going to be an Oriole this season?

[Can_of_corn]

Is Manny Machado not going to be an Oriole this season?

Watch Trombo get it because homeruns.

[Frobby]

Is Manny Machado not going to be an Oriole this season?

Manny 4.1 rWAR

Tillman 4.0 rWAR

Manny was our MVP through 81 games, and still might deserve the award if it was given out today. But he's been slumping in July, in his career he has been a much better first-half hitter, and we'll have to see what the second half brings for him. Tillman has a history as a pretty strong finisher, and he's certainly on a roll right now. Also, we have lots of guys contributing on offense and in the bullpen, but Tillman has been the only pitcher with notable success in the rotation. I know you are not a big fan of wins, but Tillman has three fewer wins than the rest of the rotation combined.

[weams]

Analytics are great for trying to analyze whether current performance is sustainable or might improve or decline in the future. But let's say one pitcher wins 20 games with a 2.50 ERA, while another guy wins 12 games with a 3.50 ERA. The second guy has better peripherals, a better FIP and his record is demonstrably due to poor run support, whereas the first guy has good run support. In that instance, I'm voting for Pitcher # 1 for the Cy Young every time. If it's the offseason and both are free agents, maybe then I'm looking at the other stuff to analyze which pitcher I want to chase after.

Every Single Time. All Times. Anyone that would not is just wrong. Mistaken, confused. And yes, I may wish to sign pitcher two as well.

[weams]

Watch Trombo get it because homeruns.

I think it will be Manny.

[Il BuonO]

Watch Trombo get it because homeruns.

The chicks, man, the chicks.

[weams]

The chicks, man, the chicks.

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qLECMCargd8" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

"We got Cy Young Winners over here."

"Has anyone seen Mark?"

[Phantom]

Manny 4.1 rWAR

Tillman 4.0 rWAR

Manny was our MVP through 81 games, and still might deserve the award if it was given out today. But he's been slumping in July, in his career he has been a much better first-half hitter, and we'll have to see what the second half brings for him. Tillman has a history as a pretty strong finisher, and he's certainly on a roll right now. Also, we have lots of guys contributing on offense and in the bullpen, but Tillman has been the only pitcher with notable success in the rotation. I know you are not a big fan of wins, but Tillman has three fewer wins than the rest of the rotation combined.

I'm not a fan of rWAR for pitchers, but I must admit I didn't realize it was that close. This actually makes me respect rWAR all the less.

Still, I don't want to come off as rooting against Tilly. I hope he keeps this up.

[weams]

Back to Orioles baseball. Here.

[PaulFolk]

He might be the Orioles' MVP, in any event. When was the last time a pitcher won that award (the Orioles one)?

Rodrigo Lopez in 2002.

[crawjo]

I'll say it again. It seems to me that if the Orioles have a candidate for the Cy Young Award, it's Zach Britton, not Chris Tillman. I don't normally like giving the Cy Young to a reliever, but this is the kind of year where it might make some sense. No starting pitcher is having a dominant season, and Britton so far is having one of the best seasons by a closer in baseball history. He hasn't blown a save and hasn't allowed an earned run since April 30. Right now his 0.66 ERA would rank third all time among pitchers with at least 60 innings (assuming he gets that many, which he will). There's obviously a long way to go, and Britton doesn't have the gaudy K numbers that other great closers have, but he does have maybe the most devastating pitch in all of baseball. It's worth keeping an eye on.