Could Britton pull out a Cy Young if he finishes with 50+/<.50?

[OFFNY]

o

I think that it would be interesting if Britton got the M.V.P., but not the Cy Young Award.

You could argue that he is the most valuable player, but not necessarily the best pitcher.

I got this idea from a NY Daily News article from August of 1986. It suggested that Don Aase should get the A.L. MVP Award, and that Roger Clemens should get the A.L. Cy Young Award. Aase had 29 saves and a 2.10 ERA at the time, and the Orioles had relied heavily upon him to keep them in the A.L. East Pennant race up until that point.

That only works if you decide that "most valuable" doesn't mean "best" but instead something like "the player whose absence would have the biggest negative impact on his team's realistic playoff chances".

The issue with that is you'll inevitably end up with nonsensical awards, where you give it to a 4-win guy with no halfway decent backups on a team that snuck into the wildcard over guys who were twice as good. I think giving a reliever the Cy Young should be very rare, and is almost never objectively justifiable. The MVP to a reliever? I don't know that there has ever been a situation where you could logically make a case for that. Goose Gossage was 2nd in the AL in rWAR in '75 (but 13th in fWAR), that's probably as close as you'd ever come.

A relief pitcher has won the MVP Award before.

[DrungoHazewood]

A relief pitcher has won the MVP Award before.

I know, and I don't think any of them were logically justifiable. Some of that was because before the 1980s there was no objective framework to analyze what value was, and it's only been the last 10-15 years that's been refined to the point you can really use it.

Jim Konstanty won the NL MVP in 1950, despite being 19th in the league (among MVP vote-getters) in rWAR. 3rd on the Phillies in rWAR, teammates with Robin Roberts who threw 300 innings, led the league in starts and won 20 games.

In '92 Eck was worth 2.9 wins in a league where eight players (including two pitchers) were worth more than six. He pitched 80 innings to a 1.91 while Mussina and Clemens pitched more than three times as many innings with an ERA only a little over half a run higher.

In '81 Rollie Fingers was 9th in the AL in rWAR. In '84 Willie Hernandez was worth 4.8 wins while Cal was at 10.0.

Again, voters of the time didn't have our toolbox, but in retrospect these choices don't make any sense.

Now... one reliever MVP I could endorse is Carl Hubbell. In 1933 he was second in the NL in saves and was named the MVP. Of course, in between relief appearances he made 33 starts, pitched 274 innings and had a 1.74 ERA.

[OFFNY]

o

I think that it would be interesting if Britton got the M.V.P., but not the Cy Young Award.

You could argue that he is the most valuable player, but not necessarily the best pitcher.

I got this idea from a NY Daily News article from August of 1986. It suggested that Don Aase should get the A.L. MVP Award, and that Roger Clemens should get the A.L. Cy Young Award. Aase had 29 saves and a 2.10 ERA at the time, and the Orioles had relied heavily upon him to keep them in the A.L. East Pennant race up until that point.

That only works if you decide that "most valuable" doesn't mean "best" but instead something like "the player whose absence would have the biggest negative impact on his team's realistic playoff chances".

The issue with that is you'll inevitably end up with nonsensical awards, where you give it to a 4-win guy with no halfway decent backups on a team that snuck into the wildcard over guys who were twice as good. I think giving a reliever the Cy Young should be very rare, and is almost never objectively justifiable. The MVP to a reliever? I don't know that there has ever been a situation where you could logically make a case for that. Goose Gossage was 2nd in the AL in rWAR in '75 (but 13th in fWAR), that's probably as close as you'd ever come.

A relief pitcher has won the MVP Award before.

I know, and I don't think any of them were logically justifiable. Some of that was because before the 1980s there was no objective framework to analyze what value was, and it's only been the last 10-15 years that's been refined to the point you can really use it.

Jim Konstanty won the NL MVP in 1950, despite being 19th in the league (among MVP vote-getters) in rWAR. 3rd on the Phillies in rWAR, teammates with Robin Roberts who threw 300 innings, led the league in starts and won 20 games.

In '92 Eck was worth 2.9 wins in a league where eight players (including two pitchers) were worth more than six. He pitched 80 innings to a 1.91 while Mussina and Clemens pitched more than three times as many innings with an ERA only a little over half a run higher.

In '81 Rollie Fingers was 9th in the AL in rWAR. In '84 Willie Hernandez was worth 4.8 wins while Cal was at 10.0.

Again, voters of the time didn't have our toolbox, but in retrospect these choices don't make any sense.

Now... one reliever MVP I could endorse is Carl Hubbell. In 1933 he was second in the NL in saves and was named the MVP. Of course, in between relief appearances he made 33 starts, pitched 274 innings and had a 1.74 ERA.

You said that there was no way that you could logically make a case for it happening.

The fact that it actually happened belies your assertion.

Kent Hrbek came in 2nd that year in the A.L. MVP voting, Dan Quisenberry came in 3rd, Eddie Murray came in 4th, and Don Mattingly came in 5th.

You could make the argument that Mattingly or Murray should have won the Award, but to say that there is no justification that Hernandez should have won it implies that he should not have even been in the conversation, which to me is a far reach considering the season that he had, and the team that he had it for.

[DrungoHazewood]

You said that there was no way that you could logically make a case for it happening.

The fact that it actually happened belies your assertion.

Kent Hrbek came in 2nd that year in the A.L. MVP voting, Dan Quisenberry came in 3rd, Eddie Murray came in 4th, and Don Mattingly came in 5th.

You could make the argument that Mattingly or Murray should have won the Award, but to say that there is no justification that Hernandez should have won it implies that he should not have even been in the conversation, which to me is a far reach considering the season that he had, and the team that he had it for.

Obviously it's happened. My point is that with a modern understanding of value it doesn't make any sense. Willie Hernandez' MVP was like giving the award to Britton over Mike Trout or Mookie Betts or even Manny, who are all clearly more valuable.

[OFFNY]

o

The Britton Debate

(By Roch Kubatko)

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2016/08/the-britton-debate-and-tonights-game.html

[GoldGlove21]

My issue with a relief pitcher winning the award is that the contest isn't a who performed best at a given position. It is who was the MVP on a team. If you can't make a case that Britton is more important to the Orioles than Machado or Chris Tillman then you can't make a case for Britton being the MVP. I honestly have always felt that the MVP should be used on everyday players. If you deviate from that then I think it should be the best guy who went out there every fifth day. I like Britton; I think he should be reliever of the year and deserves are the accolades he has got thus far. With that said I do not think he should be MVP.

[PaulFolk]

Save it. Happ is a lock.

It's not even September yet. Nobody's a lock at this point, let alone a guy who was basically a journeyman before this year.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Save it. Happ is a lock.

Always pimping your guys.

[atomic]

My issue with a relief pitcher winning the award is that the contest isn't a who performed best at a given position. It is who was the MVP on a team. If you can't make a case that Britton is more important to the Orioles than Machado or Chris Tillman then you can't make a case for Britton being the MVP. I honestly have always felt that the MVP should be used on everyday players. If you deviate from that then I think it should be the best guy who went out there every fifth day. I like Britton; I think he should be reliever of the year and deserves are the accolades he has got thus far. With that said I do not think he should be MVP.

I agree. If pitchers can win MVP then eliminate the CY Young award. Baseball writers are idiots in general so anything can happen with these awards. I think a reliever of the year award should be created and then you don't have all these issues.

[MDtransplant757]

I agree. If pitchers can win MVP then eliminate the CY Young award. Baseball writers are idiots in general so anything can happen with these awards. I think a reliever of the year award should be created and then you don't have all these issues.

Amazing post. Someone rep this post.

[25 Nuggets]

There was an award for relief pitching -- the Rolaids Relief Award. Nobody cared about it so it went away after 2012 (Jim Johnson / Craig Kimbrel).

[DrungoHazewood]

Save it. Happ is a lock.

The voters can't be that, well... dumb.... can they? I mean, if it was 20, 30, 50 years ago, sure. But Happ's qualifications are 17-3. That's it. He's not among the league leaders in innings, Ks, WHIP, ERA, BB/9, rWAR, fWAR, WPA. His FIP/xFIP is nearly a run higher than his ERA. I'd like to see a writer in 2016 try to justify giving the 15th-best pitcher in the league the Cy Young because a 100-year old deadball era rule credited him with a great W/L record.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree. If pitchers can win MVP then eliminate the CY Young award.

But what if a pitcher really is the most valuable player? I wouldn't be opposed to separate awards for position players, starting pitchers, and relievers. But the very first Cy Young award, in 1956, went to Don Newcombe... who also won the NL MVP. From the very start there was no explicit or implied separation there.

[25 Nuggets]

Out of curiosity I looked up Willie Hernandez, 1984:

9-3, 1.92 ERA, 80 G, 68 GF, 32 SV, 140.1 IP, 548 BF, 204 ERA+, 2.58 FIP, 0.941 WHIP, 6.2 H/9, 0.4 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 4.8 pWAR

80 games? 140 innings? I see now how he got the MVP award. There will be starting pitchers this year that won't reach 140 IP. Just from the volume of games/innings he had he finished 6th in the AL in WAR for pitchers.

Zach Britton by contrast may not reach half of Hernandez' IP total. He's better in every rate stat but walks/9 and currently sports a 3.2 pWAR, not quite in the top ten in the AL. His WPA however is 5.0, a full point ahead of second place, our old buddy Andrew Miller.

[25 Nuggets]

Here's a starting pitcher who's quietly made his way onto the leaderboards of most pitching stats. He was 4-0 in July with a 1.69 ERA and is continuing that success in August:

Justin Verlander

WARNING: NSFW

[video=youtube;VqtJw67xM14]