Could Britton pull out a Cy Young if he finishes with 50+/<.50?

[Trackmaster]

Yes, his ERA is remarkable (even while discounting the save stat), but the problem is that he only pitches 67.0 innings throughout a season. Unfortunately, even with such an insanely low ERA, a 2.50 pitcher who gives you 230 innings will be far more valuable to your team. It's actually an area where the voters get it right, and think like sabermetricians.

You have the Rolaids Relief Award to recognize pitchers for their contributions. Its the same thing for why pitchers don't win MVP. They're very valuable as a good, but an individual pitcher can't impact a season the way that one hitter/fielder can. So they're recognized for their valuable contributions through the Cy Young, and not through the MVP.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yes, his ERA is remarkable (even while discounting the save stat), but the problem is that he only pitches 67.0 innings throughout a season. Unfortunately, even with such an insanely low ERA, a 2.50 pitcher who gives you 230 innings will be far more valuable to your team. It's actually an area where the voters get it right, and think like sabermetricians.

You have the Rolaids Relief Award to recognize pitchers for their contributions. Its the same thing for why pitchers don't win MVP. They're very valuable as a good, but an individual pitcher can't impact a season the way that one hitter/fielder can. So they're recognized for their valuable contributions through the Cy Young, and not through the MVP.

A little math is at hand. Justin Verlander allowed 81 runs or something this year. I did this earlier and can't read my chicken scratch. An average AL starter would have allowed 39 more runs than that in his number of innings, so you could say Verlander was +39.

Britton by the same measure, substituting an average reliever, was +24.

But Britton's leverage index was 1.68, so 24 x 1.68 is... +40.

Now, Verlander comes out a bit further ahead on runs over replacement level.

I'm not a fan of a 60, 70, 80 inning reliever winning the Cy Young, even Britton. The Eck MVP/Cy season was more than a little silly. But... there are no 2.50 ERA/230 inning pitchers this year. It's probably going to a 3.15/225 guy due to a win rule written circa 1911.

[LookitsPuck]

For me, there's Zach Britton (47/47, 0.54 ERA in 67 IP) and the second closest (with > 50 IP) is Dan Otero.

Dan Otero's numbers? 1.53 ERA in ~70 IP.

Throw in perfection with save opportunities, a historic season w/ ERA coupled with just a few *great* (see: not historic) starting pitching competition...and Britton should just win on those merits alone.

[MDtransplant757]

I think he should.

[DrungoHazewood]

Thought exercise: 1998 NL Cy Young.

Trevor Hoffman 73 innings, 1.48 ERA, 41 hits, 21 walks, 86 Ks, 2nd in Cy Young with 88 points.

Randy Johnson 84.1 innings, 1.28 ERA, 57 hits, 26 walks, 116 Ks, 7th in Cy Young with 2 points.

Glavine won, Kevin Brown probably should have won.

Discuss.

(Also, that was the year Sidney Ponson got a ROY vote for going 8-9, 5.27)

[Babypowder]

67 innings, 2.5 WAR.

If he were as good at pitching as a frontline starter, he would be one.

[Ohfan67]

(Also, that was the year Sidney Ponson got a ROY vote for going 8-9, 5.27)

Really!!????? That says all you need to say about the voting system for these awards.

*I don't really get bent out of shape about any of these awards because they are what they are...click bait to discuss and argue (and water cooler fodder back in the day).

[Trackmaster]

A little math is at hand. Justin Verlander allowed 81 runs or something this year. I did this earlier and can't read my chicken scratch. An average AL starter would have allowed 39 more runs than that in his number of innings, so you could say Verlander was +39.

Britton by the same measure, substituting an average reliever, was +24.

But Britton's leverage index was 1.68, so 24 x 1.68 is... +40.

Now, Verlander comes out a bit further ahead on runs over replacement level.

I'm not a fan of a 60, 70, 80 inning reliever winning the Cy Young, even Britton. The Eck MVP/Cy season was more than a little silly. But... there are no 2.50 ERA/230 inning pitchers this year. It's probably going to a 3.15/225 guy due to a win rule written circa 1911.

That's a pretty good analysis. It's pretty remarkable how Verlander could be so even with Britton considering his ERA being in the 3's (I guess I was giving pitchers benefit of the doubt, I didn't realize that a sub 3 ERA was so ephemeral these days).

People should remember that in addition to clocking a ton of innings compared to closers, its a lot harder to consistently get guys out regularly and avoid "the big inning" when you're going 6-8 innings a game. It's way easier to come in and gun out all for for 3-4 batters every other game.

[DrungoHazewood]

Really!!????? That says all you need to say about the voting system for these awards.

*I don't really get bent out of shape about any of these awards because they are what they are...click bait to discuss and argue (and water cooler fodder back in the day).

It was just a single vote, he finished a distant 5th to Ben Grieve. And it was 1998 so the league averaged over five runs a game.

[Can_of_corn]

It was just a single vote, he finished a distant 5th to Ben Grieve. And it was 1998 so the league averaged over five runs a game.

Probably a local writer throwing him a bone.

[DrungoHazewood]

Probably a local writer throwing him a bone.

Ponson probably bought him a couple dozen extra cases of beer when he was picking up his for the week.

[atomic]

67 innings, 2.5 WAR.

If he were as good at pitching as a frontline starter, he would be one.

Britton has 4.3 WAR this year. I guess you are quoting that simpletonistic Fanagraphs WAR. I bet most top starters wouldn't be great closers. Certainly not at Brittons level. It not only takes quality pitches but nerves of steel. You saw how Jim Johnson fell apart. A closer who can do the job year in and year out is rare.

[DrungoHazewood]

Britton has 4.3 WAR this year. I guess you are quoting that simpletonistic Fanagraphs WAR. I bet most top starters wouldn't be great closers. Certainly not at Brittons level. It not only takes quality pitches but nerves of steel. You saw how Jim Johnson fell apart. A closer who can do the job year in and year out is rare.

Britton almost certainly wont be at Britton's level in the future. And a starter transitioning to the pen typically sees his ERA improve by about a run. Gausman and Tillman certainly would be relievers with ERAs in the 2.00s, sometimes better, sometimes worse. The median ERA of everyone with 15+ saves in 2016 was 3.06.

Basically most any starter who can put up a 4.00 ERA can be an above-average closer.

[Odenton O]

Eckersley 1992 season: 1.91 ERA with 51 Saves.

Looking back through Eck's numbers, I think Britton's season is actually more similar to Eckersley's 1990 season: 0.61 ERA, 48/50 saves, in 73.1 innings pitched.

I had forgotten until all this that he got the Cy for the latter season, rather than his more dominant 1990 season. I always kind of figured it was sort of a 'lifetime achievement award' to some extent, after all the great seasons Eckersley had. 1992 turned out to be his last really great year.

[25 Nuggets]

Britton almost certainly wont be at Britton's level in the future.

(this is why you trade him for a truckload)