If This Is It-2017 Offseason

[Sessh]

Put me in the "never rebuild, always retool" camp. What does rebuilding mean? It generally means years of failure, under-performance, and eternal "hope" without a payoff.

One factor you're not considering here is internal growth of our young players: Bundy, Gausman, even pieces like Kim, Rickard, etc. If Bundy and Gausman continue to develop apace, that starts to shore up your rotation. It might look more like Tillman, Gausman, Bundy... and four/five... with your 1-3 starters being legitimate TOR pitchers.

Do we need a little creative destruction here? Yes, I think we do. But to tear down and start from scratch? That's admitting complete defeat and roster failure. We aren't anywhere NEAR there, IMO. You keep your good guys regardless, so signing Machado and Tillman to longer-term deals would be a great start. Then you look to fill holes. We'll have one in right field and possibly left, plus a fluid rotation. I can't see scrapping a whole roster because of that situation.

It's not the whole roster, it the most expensive guys. Machado is unlikely to live up to the contract he will get and that's a lot of money that could be used to buy several players instead of just one. Also, how do you

figure that trading Jones, Britton and Machado will lead to years of failure? What do you think we'd be getting back for them? Peanuts? We'd be getting some of the best young talent in the league in return for those guys.

That cuts back on any "years of failure" significantly if not entirely and sets the Orioles up for success in the present and future. The Orioles may have one third place year, but I'd rather see some exciting, young talent

as opposed to a bunch of overpaid superstars that the organization hangs their entire future (and payroll) on. That's the whole point of trading them; to avoid "years of losing" when they walk for nothing or handcuff the

payroll while they sit on the DL or under perform.

It's not starting from scratch, either. Bundy, Tillman and Gausman is a good foundation for the rotation and I might listen on Gausman depending on the offers given. The starting lineup is what will look the most different

and ultimately the most improved.

Look, take Mark Trumbo's career year in an age 30 contract year out of the equation or one injury or repeat of last season for Tillman and the Orioles are behind Seattle and Detroit right now. Remove both and the Orioles

aren't even in the WC race and that's WITH Machado. The Orioles need a lot more than a "little destruction" because a lot of destruction has been done to the organization already. You can't straddle the line between

a rebuild and going for it (ie: "retool") because it just makes a losing team. Either commit one way or the other. Any in between just adds to the years of losing you refer to. The success of this team already relies on

two or three people which is an extremely fragile foundation. Without Trumbo, we're with Houston trying to fight our way into the race and the same goes for Tillman and you think we just need a few guys? This team

needs a lot more than a few guys and the only way to fix this, especially after trading most of our farm and draft picks away, is to trade our most valuable players for a boatload of youth and go from there. The Bedard

trade is a perfect example of what the Orioles need to do x3 and we have more than enough to trade for an entirely new team and significantly improved farm system of top and above average prospects. Without a

farm system, the Orioles are always a poorly placed injury away from being at the bottom of the division again.

The Orioles would recover a lot faster that way than they will if they act like they're collecting baseball cards and refuse to trade their favorites. The bigger picture is in jeopardy here and another 10 years of losing will

happen if the Orioles can't make the tough decisions. Extending Manny does not make the Orioles better. It doesn't fix the farm, it doesn't give payroll flexibility, it doesn't fix the pitching or really anything else. If trading

one guy can essentially get you a new starting rotation or a new outfield, infield etc, you'd be NUTS to not do that especially for a team like the Orioles.

Bundy may not stay healthy and Gausman's recurrent shoulder problems early in the season could become something more. Gausman is not a legitimate TOR starter. Bundy could be, but he's nowhere near that yet. You're

making a lot of leaps here just as people are doing with Mancini who hasn't had a single AB in the majors yet, but is being crowned our new DH next season. Really? Who replaces Trumbo's production? I don't even think

Trumbo can replace Trumbo's production. You want to put all your faith in two "TOR" starters that haven't proven they can be that yet. One injury and then what? Who do we call up from Norfolk? Tyler Wilson? The

Orioles will lose a lot more if they try to hold on to everyone. This team, as presently constructed from top to bottom, cannot win a championship and does not have the means to acquire the players needed to do so

without some big trades and hard decisions. If you want to twist the knife, then go for "a little destruction" and prolong the inevitable and extend the time needed to recover from what's coming.

This is not "dealing with pain", it's common sense and looking at the big picture ahead and what moves are most likely to keep this team in contention for years to come. Sinking a third of the payroll into one player when

the team needs a lot of work is counterproductive to that goal, period. Besides, why would Manny want to stay on a sinking ship when any contender in baseball could probably pay him more and give him a better chance

to win a championship?

I think I will wait until the season is over to judge whether a rebuild needs to be seriously considered. Last offseason, I said I would consider a sell-off if we were not in contention at the

trade deadline. Well, we were in contention at the trade deadline, and in fact, we are in contention today. The team has not played particularly well since the end of June, but it is not as if they've fallen off the face

of the earth. You may think they are "collapsing," but I think that remains to be seen. They might recover and play well the rest of the way, they might hover around .500 ball the rest of the way, or they might really

take a serious tumble. I'm not going to pre-judge the outcome.

Fair enough, but even if the Orioles make the playoffs, does that really change anything? I don't think so. If anything, it just gives the FO more of a reason to think the organization is good enough now top to bottom to

win a championship when it's obviously not. It may be the worst possible outcome to the season. The Orioles have the trade value to build a new team and farm system that it would otherwise take another decade to

achieve in a single offseason. How do you not take that? The longer the wait, the more value those players lose (perhaps a great deal more if not all in the case of an injury) and the longer it will take to rebuild the

organization when everyone is gone. Making the post season wouldn't change anything about the situation in Baltimore except make it look like a rebuild isn't necessary when it clearly is.

[El Gordo]

If we don't make the playoffs, and I'm not saying we won't, we aren't likely to improve the club significantly with the FA next year. I'd explore trading Manny and Britton.

[wildcard]

If we don't make the playoffs, and I'm not saying we won't, we aren't likely to improve the club significantly with the FA next year. I'd explore trading Manny and Britton.

The team will be improved next year just by having Bundy start all year.

[Creamsicle]

If we don't make the playoffs, and I'm not saying we won't, we aren't likely to improve the club significantly with the FA next year. I'd explore trading Manny and Britton.

Ouch. I mean, yeah, but, Ouch.

[El Gordo]

The team will be improved next year just by having Bundy start all year.

Not by itself. We wont have Trumbo, Alvarez, or Wieters. No guarantee they'll be replaced with upgrades. I'd wait and see with Bundy as well he's looked shaky his last two outings.

[El Gordo]

Ouch. I mean, yeah, but, Ouch.

I just see our chances of making the playoffs diminishing each of Manny's remaining years and I don't see PAS shelling out to extend him. Might as well get as much as we can for him.

[jamalshw]

Whether or not we make the playoffs doesn't change my valuation of the team moving forward (nor does how deep we go in the playoffs make a difference in that regard).

With that said, here's what I'd look to do (in this order):

1. Extend Manny. This is priority #1. If we do nothing else of substance, but this is finalized, the offseason will at least be adequate.

2. Extend Tillman.

3. Explore a trade or Zach Britton. Provided O'Day is healthy I think he and Brach (yes, I know he's struggled some lately) can hold down the fort in the back end and I think there's depth in the pen. With his amazing season and the Cy Young talk, he could command a huge return. Obviously, I don't move him unless the return is massive, but it's worth exploring.

4. Try to sign (or trade for) a quality RF who can hit atop the order. The offense has been too dependent on the long ball and i'd love to go 1-2 with a new RF and Kim as OBP options atop the order with Manny, Jones and Davis behind them. I think that helps. I'd love to explore Fowler again, but I think that ship has sailed and will be too pricey this time around anyway.

5. Sign a left-handed reliever. (Assuming we don't trade for a solid one that has control beyond this year before the end of the month).

6. Dump Jimenez. I'd look to deal him eating as much as necessary to get it done. If you can get out from under even $1-2M, you do it. Otherwise, release him unless he shows up and dominates in Spring Training.

After that, I'd look at depth options and value plays, but those are the top things to address in my mind. Obviously, I'd love a TOR starter (#1 or #2) to go along with that, but I just don't see that happening. There's too much money tied up on dead weight at the bottom of the rotation to dish out much more in the starting five. I think we go into next year with Tillman, Bundy, Gausman, Miley and Gallardo.

As for the QO, I'd offer one to Trumbo. I only offer one to Wieters IF he has a good final month and a half.

I'd like to see Mancini and Cisco (platooning with Joseph) at DH/1B and C next year. For Sisco, we may start with others Joseph/Pena, etc for the first month or two if Sisco needs a bit more time in the minors. If Wieters doesn't get what he's expecting in FA, I'd be open to another one year deal. A Hundley reunion or Jason Castro on a small one-year deal wouldn't be bad if Sisco isn't deemed ready (or close enough).

[Stotle]

If the playoffs are not achieved' date=' what would YOUR offseason look like? Here's mine in a nutshell:

QO to Winters and Trumbo, they probably walk

Let Alvarez and Pearce walk

Extend Manny and Tillman

Mancini comes up to DH and Cisco to catch, maybe behind Joseph

Use the money on a pitcher and RF[/quote']

Would be a minor miracle for Cisco to step in and handle a big league rotation in 2017. Slightly less likely, I think, would be Manny extending with no idea what direction the organization is heading and likely requiring over $300MM to get his attention.

[Stotle]

The team will be improved next year just by having Bundy start all year.

It's a pretty big assumption that he can even shoulder a full year's worth of starts. We haven't seen him capable of shouldering two months worth of regular starter load.

[Camden_yardbird]

Why now? We still have him through 2018 and he will still get a very high return in January or July of 2018. We actually do not have a very deep bullpen as we are seeing right now with Brach struggling and O'Day injured.

You do it now so you can readjust. If you get to July 2018 and are in the race, you can't trade him and you let him walk for a pick (if they even still give comp picks in 2018). That's a failure of epic proportions given the deals closers are netting.

[Camden_yardbird]

Would be a minor miracle for Cisco to step in and handle a big league rotation in 2017. Slightly less likely, I think, would be Manny extending with no idea what direction the organization is heading and likely requiring over $300MM to get his attention.

What is your thought on Mancini and the likelihood he could step in a be a productive every day DH. That's the one that drives me crazy. Obviously easier than catcher, but in my opinion still next to nil.

[Frobby]

Fair enough, but even if the Orioles make the playoffs, does that really change anything? I don't think so. If anything, it just gives the FO more of a reason to think the organization is good enough now top to bottom to

win a championship when it's obviously not. It may be the worst possible outcome to the season. The Orioles have the trade value to build a new team and farm system that it would otherwise take another decade to

achieve in a single offseason. How do you not take that? The longer the wait, the more value those players lose (perhaps a great deal more if not all in the case of an injury) and the longer it will take to rebuild the

organization when everyone is gone. Making the post season wouldn't change anything about the situation in Baltimore except make it look like a rebuild isn't necessary when it clearly is.

I am of the philosophy that any team that is good enough to make the playoffs has a shot to win the championship, and I am not willing to break up a team that makes the playoffs to start a rebuild, even though I concede that the Orioles are not the best-constructed team in baseball and may not be in the top 5.

Frankly, our farm system is so weak right now that even if you traded off a bunch of veterans for minor league talent, at best we would have a slightly above average minor league system to go along with a really bad major league team. So I only want to go that direction if I think the major league team is only a longshot to even make the playoffs.

We all know that it took the Orioles too long back in 1998-2000 to recognize that they were a mediocre team, and that set them back in their rebuild. But the circumstances of those teams are not the same as the current one. When they start losing, I'll be quick to advocate rebuilding, but until then I want to keep winning as long as we can.

[El Gordo]

Would be a minor miracle for Cisco to step in and handle a big league rotation in 2017. Slightly less likely, I think, would be Manny extending with no idea what direction the organization is heading and likely requiring over $300MM to get his attention.

Without building around him it would be like the Votto contract.

[Stotle]

What is your thought on Mancini and the likelihood he could step in a be a productive every day DH. That's the one that drives me crazy. Obviously easier than catcher, but in my opinion still next to nil.

I think there's a chance he's a serviceable DH -- less so that he steps in and is a quality producer from day 1. With Davis at 1B Mancini doesn't really serve any other purpose on the roster, so the question is whether or not Baltimore wants to deal with the potential growing pains. Do you use the roster spot on a part-time DH?

[Stotle]

Without building around him it would be like the Votto contract.

Yeah. With Machado so close to FA and a number of deep pockets waiting in the wings it's tough for me to envision him extending with Baltimore on the promise Duquette will figure something out with the rest of the roster.

I mean, not to get depressing, but look at the young talent the Yankees have debuting this year and next. It's what Jason Heyward was looking at when deciding to sign with the Cubs (though the Cubs maybe wish that hadn't happened, haha).