If This Is It-2017 Offseason

[Frobby]

There is only one contract that has hit 300m and it was for 13 years. It averaged 25m per year. Though Manny will get a lot I don't think he averages 30m per year for 10 years.

I think you are living in a dream world. Because Manny is going to be so young when he hits free agency, $300 mm for 10 years is going to look like a bargain.

[Aristotelian]

I hate Trumbo's defense but I have a hard time seeing him as a 1.1 WAR player. I've been very happy with his season. He's on pace for 46 HR and 117 RBI. I'll take that any day.

He's at 1.2 WAR now, but WAR is an accumulative stat, so he is on pace for more like 1.5 to 1.6. That doesn't seem too far off factoring his defense.

Still, l understand that playing both Pedro and Trumbo may be best for the team, but having Trumbo in the field really undercuts his value. If he didn't have to play defense, he would be worth more like 2.5 WAR. As much as I like Pedro'

s bat too, it seems the two together are not the best combination to maximize their value.

[crawjo]

Sisco isn't ready to catch at the ML level. Who are you upgrading with at C, DH, and RF ?

Wieters is barely above a replacement level player. I take my chances with Sisco at catcher. I would consider making a run at Brandon Moss in the offseason. For RF I would look for a strong defensive player with good OBP. It would probably be a trade, and would depend on who was available.

I'd also check in on Edwin Encarnacion, though the price is probably too high given his age.

[FlipTheBird]

He's at 1.2 WAR now, but WAR is an accumulative stat, so he is on pace for more like 1.5 to 1.6. That doesn't seem too far off factoring his defense.

Still, l understand that playing both Pedro and Trumbo may be best for the team, but having Trumbo in the field really undercuts his value. If he didn't have to play defense, he would be worth more like 2.5 WAR. As much as I like Pedro'

s bat too, it seems the two together are not the best combination to maximize their value.

Which is why they were never supposed to be teammates. Stupid Dex Fowler.

[Ruzious]

We can make trades like the Bedard trade and I'd agree that it was a fantastic move. However, the Bedard trade resulted in an uptick in salary for us as we had to pony up to keep Jones. At the time, he was the most expensive player in team history.

Gotta put it on the table to keep someone like Manny or else he's gonna go to NY or Boston. You're telling me that the Nats shouldn't sign Harper long term? Angels shouldn't try to keep Trout?

Paralysis by analysis and the fear of what might happen won't improve this team, either. Ideally this team would be good enough to have guys waiting in the wings to replace what we have but we don't.

This is a really difficult choice to make. When comparing our situation to the Nats with Harper, I think the level of talent projected to surround the players has to be factored in. The Nats continue to have a very solid system that provides talent year in and year out. With Harper, they're almost certainly going to be a playoff contender - at the least - every year.

The O's system lacks that kind of talent, and there are only a few young players that are set here for the period that Manny's contract will go. The O's won't have the money to buy a team to put around Manny. We could get a small fortune for Manny - since he'll be controlled for 2017 and 2018. But the longer we wait, the less control there is, and we have to face the fact that he might not want to return. For that reason, I would strongly consider trading him in the offseason.

[Ruzious]

Why now? We still have him through 2018 and he will still get a very high return in January or July of 2018. We actually do not have a very deep bullpen as we are seeing right now with Brach struggling and O'Day injured.

Because his value is never going to be as high as it is now (meaning the offseason). Realistically, the O's won't be a playoff team next year, and getting a couple of very good young players can help the team a lot more in the long run. In the meantime, Givens is someone they can groom to be a closer - assuming he can get lefties out.

[LookitsPuck]

Which is why they were never supposed to be teammates. Stupid Dex Fowler.

It's why you shouldn't wait until the last possible second to assemble your team. Then you get injured starters and scenarios where Duquette folds his arms and doesn't budge because of opt outs.

[El Gordo]

There is only one contract that has hit 300m and it was for 13 years. It averaged 25m per year. Though Manny will get a lot I don't think he averages 30m per year for 10 years.

If you don't begin the conversation there, there will be no further conversation. BOS and MFY will need a SS/3B.

[El Gordo]

Wieters is barely above a replacement level player. I take my chances with Sisco at catcher. I would consider making a run at Brandon Moss in the offseason. For RF I would look for a strong defensive player with good OBP. It would probably be a trade, and would depend on who was available.

I'd also check in on Edwin Encarnacion, though the price is probably too high given his age.

Where are you playing Moss? Who are you trading for this RF? Have you looked at this falls FA list?

[WEAVERMAN]

If the playoffs are not achieved' date=' what would YOUR offseason look like? Here's mine in a nutshell:

QO to Winters and Trumbo, they probably walk

Let Alvarez and Pearce walk

Extend Manny and Tillman

Mancini comes up to DH and Cisco to catch, maybe behind Joseph

Use the money on a pitcher and RF[/quote']

Yes we need another SP to upgrade either the Miley or Gallardo spot.

[Aristotelian]

Keep in mind that Manny will have made only $6.5M in his career. I have to think that with his injury history there would be some interest in a deal for guaranteed money that sets him up for life while giving the Orioles a team friendly discount. Let's say we buy out his arb years (I am going to guess $8M and $12M) and just two years of free agency at $25M each, that guarantees him $70M. Right now he is guaranteed zero. Are you telling me he is not going to be interested? That approach buys us a couple more years to groom a SS/3B without committing us to $300M. It guarantees that Manny and his decendents are set for life, while also letting him hit free agency still in his prime at Age 28 and get that $300M deal on top of having already earned $70M. Arguably, he actually earns more by taking a short term extension.

The window where he has an incentive to accept a team friendly deal is closing fast. But if I am Manny right now, I would not need a $300M offer to start the conversation. But the closer he gets to free agency, the less incentive he has to accept any discount.

[DrungoHazewood]

...but having Trumbo in the field really undercuts his value. If he didn't have to play defense, he would be worth more like 2.5 WAR.

That's not true. With his current mix of RF and DH his positional adjustment is -7 in 119 games. If he'd been solely a DH his positional adjustment would have been about -13.

He's a -6 fielder so far. That almost exactly counteracts his positional adjustment if you zero out the -6, while subtracting 6 from his positional adjustment. So I think he's basically the same value either way.

[DrungoHazewood]

I hate Trumbo's defense but I have a hard time seeing him as a 1.1 WAR player. I've been very happy with his season. He's on pace for 46 HR and 117 RBI. I'll take that any day.

He's been a fine player, but I won't quibble with that value. He's right at league average in BA, below average in OBP, he's been a below-average fielder in RF, but with 100 points of slugging on the league. And in a hitter's park. In 2012-13 his context-adjusted production offensive was similar, his defense was a bit better, and he was a little over a 2-win player in a full season.

[Aristotelian]

That's not true. With his current mix of RF and DH his positional adjustment is -7 in 119 games. If he'd been solely a DH his positional adjustment would have been about -13.

He's a -6 fielder so far. That almost exactly counteracts his positional adjustment if you zero out the -6, while subtracting 6 from his positional adjustment. So I think he's basically the same value either way.

What is the -6 number? Not WAR. BRef has him at -1.3 dWAR. Fangraphs gives -12.3 Def runs saved. So if I understand the positional adjustment numbers, that means his defense has been about twice as bad as the positional adjustment for his offense in RF.

[sportsfan8703]

Why is there rebuild talk? "We won't resign our guys?" That's the only argument to be made why we would have to rebuild. That's some sad, beta fan thinking.

Look at our under 30 talent:

Tillman 28

Bundy 23

Gausman 25

Britton 28

Brach 30

Givens 26

Davis 30

Schoop 24

Machado 23

Jones 30

Kim 28

Rickard 25

We have one of the youngest, most talented, rosters in the league. Rebuild this offseason? Put down the prospect rankings. Stop gushing over the narrative that Brian Cashman, and espn, sold you on at the trade deadline, and enjoy the winning.

Just goes to show that a suprisingly low percentage of people on here were fans of the team 1998-2012.