Which Prospect(s) Would You Be Excited To Take At Pick #4?

[Greg Pappas]

Hosmer -- Due to $; if his bat doesn't reach his ceiling, you're giving an insane bonus for good defense at 1b; T-Beckham is giving you five tools that project -- Hosmer is giving you two.

I hate debating with you yet again, but seriously?

TBeck=5 Tools.

Hosmer=2 Tools?

The five tools are:

1. RUNNING SPEED. Speed is the most "innate" (genetically predisposed) of the 5 Tools. It is possible to enhance a ballplayer's speed, but substantial gains are dependent upon the athlete himself. Players with speed are

counted on to make things happen and are catalysts both offensively and defensively in the game of baseball. Scouts look at speed, and know that if a player has it he is well on the way to becoming a 5 Tool player. iPB instructors work to improve running speed by improving form, efficiency of movement and first-step quickness.

2. ARM STRENGTH. Arm strength is often rated as the "least important" of the 5 Tools, but arm strength can be a lethal weapon in any defensive position. Along with arm strength, muscle endurance is an often overlooked area for baseball players. Pitchers realize the importance of muscle endurance - being able to throw hundreds of pitches weekly - but what about the shortstop who needs to make plays day in and day out, or the outfielder looking to gun down a baserunner at the plate? Arm strength AND endurance are two critical areas emphasized by iPB instructors.

3. HITTING FOR AVERAGE. Lets face it, to score runs you need baserunners. Good hitters hit for average first and power second. Hitting for average requires the ability to hit to all fields and assess defensive situations - knowing when to hit to the right side, when to bunt, or being able to make contact when the hit and run is on. Hitting for average requires good decision-making ability and good pitch selection at the plate, foundational skills that are highly emphasized by iPB instructors.

4. HITTING FOR POWER. The most obvious benefit of this Tool is that extra base hits increase a team's chances of scoring. Power hitters also add an intimidation factor. Barry Bonds drew a record 198 walks in 2002, taking his on-base percentage to over 500. Power hitters have recently emerged because athletes recognize the importance of strength and conditioning programs, and the fact that power hitters generally demand the best contracts. Home runs and doubles off the wall are a fan, and scout, favorite. iPB instructors work to refine the athlete's swing and maximize his physical abilities to hit the long ball.

5. FIELDING. Scouts will often say a player has "good hands." In reality, good hands - or good fielding position - is the result of a number of factors working together that make difficult plays look simple. Middle infielders, catchers, and outfielders must have the defensive skills required to take away base hits, know how to "read" a hitter, and know how to react and position themselves for the best chance for success. iPB's fielding instructors start with the basics and work to develop a functional approach to fielding fundamentals at all positions.

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Hosmer lacks only in speed, and has the better bat than TBeck. Hosmer is an excellent defender with a very good arm. He has big power and is among the better HS bats in years.

Beckham's power is projection-based, but even so, most scouts would see him as a 15-20 guy now. Hosmer's is 30+. My point is it seems a bit one-sided to categorize Hosmer as a 2-tool player.

[Stotle]

I hate debating with you yet again, but seriously?

TBeck=5 Tools.

Hosmer=2 Tools?

The five tools are:

1. RUNNING SPEED. Speed is the most "innate" (genetically predisposed) of the 5 Tools. It is possible to enhance a ballplayer's speed, but substantial gains are dependent upon the athlete himself. Players with speed are

counted on to make things happen and are catalysts both offensively and defensively in the game of baseball. Scouts look at speed, and know that if a player has it he is well on the way to becoming a 5 Tool player. iPB instructors work to improve running speed by improving form, efficiency of movement and first-step quickness.

2. ARM STRENGTH. Arm strength is often rated as the "least important" of the 5 Tools, but arm strength can be a lethal weapon in any defensive position. Along with arm strength, muscle endurance is an often overlooked area for baseball players. Pitchers realize the importance of muscle endurance - being able to throw hundreds of pitches weekly - but what about the shortstop who needs to make plays day in and day out, or the outfielder looking to gun down a baserunner at the plate? Arm strength AND endurance are two critical areas emphasized by iPB instructors.

3. HITTING FOR AVERAGE. Lets face it, to score runs you need baserunners. Good hitters hit for average first and power second. Hitting for average requires the ability to hit to all fields and assess defensive situations - knowing when to hit to the right side, when to bunt, or being able to make contact when the hit and run is on. Hitting for average requires good decision-making ability and good pitch selection at the plate, foundational skills that are highly emphasized by iPB instructors.

4. HITTING FOR POWER. The most obvious benefit of this Tool is that extra base hits increase a team's chances of scoring. Power hitters also add an intimidation factor. Barry Bonds drew a record 198 walks in 2002, taking his on-base percentage to over 500. Power hitters have recently emerged because athletes recognize the importance of strength and conditioning programs, and the fact that power hitters generally demand the best contracts. Home runs and doubles off the wall are a fan, and scout, favorite. iPB instructors work to refine the athlete's swing and maximize his physical abilities to hit the long ball.

5. FIELDING. Scouts will often say a player has "good hands." In reality, good hands - or good fielding position - is the result of a number of factors working together that make difficult plays look simple. Middle infielders, catchers, and outfielders must have the defensive skills required to take away base hits, know how to "read" a hitter, and know how to react and position themselves for the best chance for success. iPB's fielding instructors start with the basics and work to develop a functional approach to fielding fundamentals at all positions.

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Hosmer lacks only in speed, and has the better bat than TBeck. Hosmer is an excellent defender with a very good arm. He has big power and is among the better HS bats in years.

Beckham's power is projection-based, but even so, most scouts would see him as a 15-20 guy now. Hosmer's is 30+. My point is it seems a bit one-sided to categorize Hosmer as a 2-tool player.

Thanks for the summary of the five tools. As you can tell from my posting, I am not familiar with the specifics of scouting...

Respectfully, Hosmer has a great glove "for a 1b" and a great arm "for a 1b". By "2-tool" I obviously meant 2 plus-tools. We all know he can be very good defensively at 1b and has the arm to be an ML player. I'm not sure you get extra points for that when you're talking about distinguishing between the top talents. You're comfortable ranking a HS 1b this highly -- that's fine. I don't find great defense and a solid arm at 1b to be worth $5mio if his bat falls through. That's the real issue. Beckham doesn't need to be an all-star hitter to warrant a big bonus -- Hosmer better be a game changer if the only other items he's bringing to the table is a good glove at 1b and the ability to start a 3-6-1 double play with a strong throw.

You can make a case that a speedy, slick fielding SS with a cannon will still be above-average at the ML-level without doing much more than .275/12HR. Not sure the same can be said for a slick fielding 1b...

[Greg Pappas]

Thanks for the summary of the five tools. As you can tell from my posting, I am not familiar with the specifics of scouting...

Respectfully, Hosmer has a great glove "for a 1b" and a great arm "for a 1b". By "2-tool" I obviously meant 2 plus-tools. We all know he can be very good defensively at 1b and has the arm to be an ML player. I'm not sure you get extra points for that when you're talking about distinguishing between the top talents. You're comfortable ranking a HS 1b this highly -- that's fine. I don't find great defense and a solid arm at 1b to be worth $5mio if his bat falls through. That's the real issue. Beckham doesn't need to be an all-star hitter to warrant a big bonus -- Hosmer better be a game changer if the only other items he's bringing to the table is a good glove at 1b and the ability to start a 3-6-1 double play with a strong throw.

You can make a case that a speedy, slick fielding SS with a cannon will still be above-average at the ML-level without doing much more than .275/12HR. Not sure the same can be said for a slick fielding 1b...

I wasn't debating the differences between SS and 1B, but rather was saying that your analogy that Hosmer was a two tool player- was flawed. I think that Hosmer has an arm good enough for any position, and not just 'for a 1B'. Regardless, if Hosmer doesn't hit he will not be a ML... that's certainly true.

I think you judge a player's value as a prospect and take the best available, regardless of $ concerns. But sadly I am not in charge.

[crawdad]

I wasn't debating the differences between SS and 1B, but rather was saying that your analogy that Hosmer was a two tool player- was flawed. I think that Hosmer has an arm good enough for any position, and not just 'for a 1B'. Regardless, if Hosmer doesn't hit he will not be a ML... that's certainly true.

I think you judge a player's value as a prospect and take the best available, regardless of $ concerns. But sadly I am not in charge.

I think I would question whether a 1B can actually have 5 tools. Hosmer may be able to be a corner outfielder, but I'm not completely sold on that. Just as I am not completely sold that Smoak can play LF well.

[Stotle]

I wasn't debating the differences between SS and 1B, but rather was saying that your analogy that Hosmer was a two tool player- was flawed. I think that Hosmer has an arm good enough for any position, and not just 'for a 1B'. Regardless, if Hosmer doesn't hit he will not be a ML... that's certainly true.

I think you judge a player's value as a prospect and take the best available, regardless of $ concerns. But sadly I am not in charge.

If you want to claim that Hosmer has a 60 arm, that's fine. I'm not sure what a 60 arm gets you at 1b, but you can up it to 3 plus tools if you'd like. Doesn't it stand to reason, however, that if Hosmer was really a plus defender and had a plus arm he'd be logging time somewhere other than 1b? Seems like a pretty huge waste if this plus-armed defensive stud is stuck at 1b where he has little, if any, defensive impact...RF would seem like the logical choice, no?

Maybe I'm crazy, but (like Craw said) I don't see how any 1b could be 5-tool, and how any HS 1b should rate higher than a five-tool SS, CF or C...

[Greg Pappas]

If you want to claim that Hosmer has a 60 arm, that's fine. I'm not sure what a 60 arm gets you at 1b, but you can up it to 3 plus tools if you'd like. Doesn't it stand to reason, however, that if Hosmer was really a plus defender and had a plus arm he'd be logging time somewhere other than 1b? Seems like a pretty huge waste if this plus-armed defensive stud is stuck at 1b where he has little, if any, defensive impact...RF would seem like the logical choice, no?

Maybe I'm crazy, but (like Craw said) I don't see how any 1b could be 5-tool, and how any HS 1b should rate higher than a five-tool SS, CF or C...

A couple of things... I never claimed Hosmer had a 60 arm. He tops out at 98 mph from the mound and has a very strong arm. I am not a scout, but that seems better than average for any position. Also... I never said anything about Hosmer or any other 1B'man being a 5 tool player. Why this is being mentioned makes no sense to me. BTW... 5-tool catcher?

Players are rated at the positions they play. I never claimed that a 1B has as much defensive impact as a SS or other positions on the field.

You said "Doesn't it stand to reason, however, that if Hosmer was really a plus defender and had a plus arm he'd be logging time somewhere other than 1b? Seems like a pretty huge waste if this plus-armed defensive stud is stuck at 1b where he has little, if any, defensive impact...RF would seem like the logical choice, no?

He is a below average runner, a clogger actually... hence his position of 1B. Hosmer is not the athlete that many of the better HS position players are, and while he may be able to handle a corner OF position, he is so good defensively at 1B... why move him?

Why are you so dead set to dismiss the skillset that a plus armed, plus defensive 1B'man brings to the table? You don't think that defense matters much at 1B?

You... Crazy? Nahhh. Just looking at things in a different way than me I guess.

[markpolis]

If you want to claim that Hosmer has a 60 arm, that's fine. I'm not sure what a 60 arm gets you at 1b, but you can up it to 3 plus tools if you'd like. Doesn't it stand to reason, however, that if Hosmer was really a plus defender and had a plus arm he'd be logging time somewhere other than 1b? Seems like a pretty huge waste if this plus-armed defensive stud is stuck at 1b where he has little, if any, defensive impact...RF would seem like the logical choice, no?

Maybe I'm crazy, but (like Craw said) I don't see how any 1b could be 5-tool, and how any HS 1b should rate higher than a five-tool SS, CF or C...

Derrick Lee comes to mind as a 5 tool first basemen. I would say Hosmer is a very solid 4 tool player. If those 4 tools are rated plus, plus tools then I could see a team selecting that player over a 5 tool SS or CF.

Offhand, I can't really remember any 5 tool catchers either.

Also, I question why you don't think a gold glove caliber first basemen isn't as important as a gold glove RF'er? I would think a gold glove 1B would save you more runs than a gold glove RF'er.

To say a "defensive stud 1B has little, if any, defensive impact" is big time erroneous.

[crawdad]

I guess my words are being misunderstood. What I am saying is this:

A 1B cannot effectively be a 5 tool players because skills such as arm strength and defense are not put to effective use at that position. What I am saying is not that you cannot have 5 tools and be a 1B, but that if you do have 5 tools and play 1B . . . you effectively do not have 5 tools.

[Stotle]

Derrick Lee comes to mind as a 5 tool first basemen. I would say Hosmer is a very solid 4 tool player. If those 4 tools are rated plus, plus tools then I could see a team selecting that player over a 5 tool SS or CF.

My point is, if a player were plus-plus defensively, and couldn't play another IF position due to being LH, it would stand to reason the plus-plus defender would not be at the position on the field that requires the least amount of skill (1b, according to the defensive hierarchy devised by Bill James in the 80s -- C, SS, 2b, CF, 3b, RF, LF, 1b). It is easier to find someone to play 1b than RF. You'd think the plus-plus arm and plus-plus defense you describe would be better suited for the highest skill position he can play -- in this case, RF.

Offhand, I can't really remember any 5 tool catchers either.

Nor I. The point being, there is no reason why there couldn't be a 5-tool catcher. We've seen catchers that can run. Catcher is the most difficult skill position to play, so it stands to reason a plus-defender/plus-arm would fit well there. Since 1b requires the least amount of skill out of the 8 non-pitcher positions, it doesn't make sense that a true plus-plus defender would spend his time manning the 3. Does that follow? I think it does, but maybe I'm missing something.

Also, I question why you don't think a gold glove caliber first basemen isn't as important as a gold glove RF'er? I would think a gold glove 1B would save you more runs than a gold glove RF'er.

To say a "defensive stud 1B has little, if any, defensive impact" is big time erroneous.

Well, Craw is probably more well equipped to explain why this might be the case (I don't know how to compute runs saved per position) -- I'm essentially saying there is evidence that 1b is the easiest position to play. It follows, then, that more people should be able to play 1b than any other position. RF looks like the most difficult position a slow LH can play. A truly gifted defensive player would be better used in RF. If not RF, then LF. If not a COF, then 1b.

I think this is a big dilemma in relying solely on writings of scouts. You have to take what they say in context. It matters that Hosmer is playing 1b when they say he is great with the glove, or great defensively. Using terms like "plus" and "plus-plus" have specific meanings and are meant to compare players across all positions. By you or Greg saying Hosmer has a plus-plus arm and plus-plus defense, you are giving him a 70 on the 80 point scale. For all intents and purposes (since 80s are so incredibly rare) you are saying Hosmer is among the elite of the elite, defensively. If that's your feeling, fine -- but I think certain terms are being thrown around that aren't really meant.

The profile for 1b is big power, big bat, slow, solid defense, solid arm. I'd expect an elite 1b prospect to rate 60, 60, 40, 50, 50. That's plus bat, plus power, below-average speed, solid defense, solid arm. That is really 2 above-average tools, which is all I was getting at. If those two tools (which may be projected to be 70/65 down the lie) do not pan out, you are left with a very ordinary player.

Putting my personal feeling aside, the most recent scouting write-up I've seen on T-Beckham scores him 60/60/70/60 (as of the beginning of this season) on hitting/arm/fielding/speed. My guess is his current power rating would be around 50, and his future power would be around 60. If he doesn't hit, he still has above-average speed, elite defense at the second most difficult position on the field, and an above-average arm. There is still a ton of value in a T-Bex that bats .275/12HR (though this is a very conservative estimate of the MLer he projects to be).

I've rambled on long enough, but I hope that clears up some of what I'm saying. I don't feel like going back to proof.

EDIT -- I proofed

[Stotle]

A couple of things... I never claimed Hosmer had a 60 arm. He tops out at 98 mph from the mound and has a very strong arm. I am not a scout, but that seems better than average for any position. Also... I never said anything about Hosmer or any other 1B'man being a 5 tool player. Why this is being mentioned makes no sense to me. BTW... 5-tool catcher?

Players are rated at the positions they play. I never claimed that a 1B has as much defensive impact as a SS or other positions on the field.

You said "Doesn't it stand to reason, however, that if Hosmer was really a plus defender and had a plus arm he'd be logging time somewhere other than 1b? Seems like a pretty huge waste if this plus-armed defensive stud is stuck at 1b where he has little, if any, defensive impact...RF would seem like the logical choice, no?

He is a below average runner, a clogger actually... hence his position of 1B. Hosmer is not the athlete that many of the better HS position players are, and while he may be able to handle a corner OF position, he is so good defensively at 1B... why move him?

Why are you so dead set to dismiss the skillset that a plus armed, plus defensive 1B'man brings to the table? You don't think that defense matters much at 1B?

You... Crazy? Nahhh. Just looking at things in a different way than me I guess.

Just a difference of opinion. I understand. I don't mean to ascribe opinions to you that are not yours. I'm just not keeping track completely of who is saying what, specifically -- flipping back-and-forth at work.

[crawdad]

Why does a 1B have reduced effectiveness with respect to defense?

Lack of opportunity.

Average Number of Balls in Zone by Position (2004-2007):

1B - 173

2B - 418

3B - 308

SS - 407

LF - 256

CF - 361

RF - 283

Now, one could argue a catcher is not helped by having great defense as compared with good defense because stolen bases are a reduced tactic in the game. So, further . . . a bad 1B converts about 70% of his chances. About 125. A great 1B converts about 90% of his chances. About 155. This is a difference of 30 plays. Each play typically results in a man reaching 1B, which taken into consideration with other scenarios (men on base, number of outs) . . . it is worth about 0.6 runs per missed play. So, 18 runs. The difference between an awful 1B and a great 1B is about 2 wins defensively.

Typically, a great 1B has an efficiency rate of about .84 to .9 . . . a bad one would range between .7 and .75.

[Greg Pappas]

By you or Greg saying Hosmer has a plus-plus arm and plus-plus defense, you are giving him a 70 on the 80 point scale.

I know you have just posted to say that you didn't intend to misrepresent my words, but again I never said 'plus-plus'.

I believe that I understand your viewpoint. Truly. I believe the terminology we are using is perhaps being interpreted differently. Regardless, as always it's good to debate these issues... as it gives us all more food for thought and likely increases our chances to better understand the skills being discussed as well as the players that use them. I know I enjoy a healthy debate.

[Stotle]

I know you have just posted to say that you didn't intend to misrepresent my words, but again I never said 'plus-plus'.

I believe that I understand your viewpoint. Truly. I believe the terminology we are using is perhaps being interpreted differently. Regardless, as always it's good to debate these issues... as it gives us all more food for thought and likely increases our chances to better understand the skills being discussed as well as the players that use them. I know I enjoy a healthy debate.

Yeah, I think Mark was saying plus-plus (and his might have been a hypothetical). I'm not sure I've seen you ascribe that grade to anyone in the draft (which is probably good, because there isn't a ton of plus-plus in this draft, anyway). Now, future plus-plus, there's a little to sprinkle around.

Just trying to make sure everyone is on the same page with some of the terminology, since an 80-point scale and "plus" rating system isn't easy to just "pick-up" without having it explained.

[markpolis]

Yeah, I think Mark was saying plus-plus (and his might have been a hypothetical). I'm not sure I've seen you ascribe that grade to anyone in the draft (which is probably good, because there isn't a ton of plus-plus in this draft, anyway). Now, future plus-plus, there's a little to sprinkle around.

Just trying to make sure everyone is on the same page with some of the terminology, since an 80-point scale and "plus" rating system isn't easy to just "pick-up" without having it explained.

Stotle, I said "If those 4 tools are rated plus, plus tools then I could see a team selecting that player over a 5 tool SS or CF." I never said Hosmer was a plus, plus defender. "If" usually describes something in a hypothetical setting. IMO, Hosmer has one plus tool and it's his power.

Crawdad, very good stuff. Also, I like your blog. Very good insight.

I wonder if Bill James analysis includes balls thrown to the first basemen. I would think on a game to game basis, a first basemen touches the ball much more often than a RF'er. How many extra outs does a gold glove first basemen save you during a game by picking throws out of the dirt or catching errand throws?

If all else were equal, I don't know that I would take a Gold Glove RF'er over a Gold Glove first basemen.

[Stotle]

Stotle, I said "If those 4 tools are rated plus, plus tools then I could see a team selecting that player over a 5 tool SS or CF." I never said Hosmer was a plus, plus defender. "If" usually describes something in a hypothetical setting. IMO, Hosmer has one plus tool and it's his power.

To be fair to me, 1) I said it may have been a hypothetical, and 2) it wasn't necessarily clear you were separating Hosmer from the hypothetical.

Ex. G-Bex has a long swing. If a player were to have a long swing, I could see him dropping despite putting up very good numbers in college.