Which Prospect(s) Would You Be Excited To Take At Pick #4?

[markpolis]

To be fair to me, 1) I said it may have been a hypothetical, and 2) it wasn't necessarily clear you were separating Hosmer from the hypothetical.

Ex. G-Bex has a long swing. If a player were to have a long swing, I could see him dropping despite putting up very good numbers in college.

I think it was clear to everyone but you. Your implying I said Hosmer was a plus, plus defender, which couldn't be farther from the truth. If I were stating Hosmer was a plus, plus defender I would have said "Hosmer" instead of saying "player". I stated Hosmer was a "solid" four tool player. How do you take that and conclude Hosmer is a plus, plus defender. "Solid" is clearly different than "plus, plus". That much should be very clear.

[crawdad]

Stotle, I said "If those 4 tools are rated plus, plus tools then I could see a team selecting that player over a 5 tool SS or CF." I never said Hosmer was a plus, plus defender. "If" usually describes something in a hypothetical setting. IMO, Hosmer has one plus tool and it's his power.

Crawdad, very good stuff. Also, I like your blog. Very good insight.

I wonder if Bill James analysis includes balls thrown to the first basemen. I would think on a game to game basis, a first basemen touches the ball much more often than a RF'er. How many extra outs does a gold glove first basemen save you during a game by picking throws out of the dirt or catching errand throws?

If all else were equal, I don't know that I would take a Gold Glove RF'er over a Gold Glove first basemen.

Thanks on the good word.

Yeah, the numbers I used do not include touches thrown to the bag. I assume there cannot be much of a difference between a guy who can dig and one who cannot. But, yes, that is a spot those numbers do not cover.

This might help:

http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2008/02/first-basemen-and-saving-errors.html

He pegs Helton's career as being worth about 5.7 wins. So . . . I guess add to my total about half a win . . . maybe a little more. That comes to about 8 plays a year.

[Stotle]

I think it was clear to everyone but you. Your implying I said Hosmer was a plus, plus defender, which couldn't be farther from the truth. If I were stating Hosmer was a plus, plus defender I would have said "Hosmer" instead of saying "player". I stated Hosmer was a "solid" four tool player. How do you take that and conclude Hosmer is a plus, plus defender. "Solid" is clearly different than "plus, plus". That much should be very clear.

Relax; no harm intended, and as I said twice already I acknowledged your initial statement may have been a hypothetical. Not sure why you are making this an issue?????

I said I am flipping quickly back and forth from my work, so I may not be getting everything. Regardless, my point remains that 1) Hosmer's defense is either being wasted, or it is not so good as to warrant heavy weight in ranking him against other prospects, and 2) Hosmer will succeed or fail based on his bat -- not necessarily true for other top talents in the draft.

I think you are taking this discussion too seriously...maybe a warm milk or tea?

[allstar1579]

Man, why do you guys have to get into the really fun argument the ONE day I have stuff to do?

Ok so random comments in no order on things I flipped through. 5-tool 1B: Derek Lee, Connor Jackson and C. Kotchman might be the next 2 closest thing.

5-tool catcher: Russ Martin is the closest I can think of, but that is a bit of a stretch.

Ok, so why it is so interesting...I played college and a year of pro, as a 1B and my forte' was my defense. I was a right handed 1B which is a strike against you out of the gate, but extremely good with the glove, and yes there is a huge difference between 5 tools at one position versus another. At 1B fielding is much more important than arm strength, although if you have a weak-armed CF or RF in your lineup it becomes more important to have a strong armed 1B as they are the ones making any cut offs to the plate. Digs are immensely important at 1B though because of the number of chances they get and each one is the difference between an out and an error or a hit, so the impact on ERA is pretty impressive Not to mention the psychological difference of the INF knowing they can turn it loose and throw to you without worrying if you are going to drop it or miss it. When they start playing tentative, they stop making plays that you need to make.

Yes a 5-tool CF is more important than a 5-tool 1B but of the tools but that is what we should come up with. A rating scale that weights the 5-tools per position with say, more weight on fielding and power at 1B versus more for speed and average for say 2B or CF. The problem with that is there are people like Utley who break the mold for that position as a hitter (until he eventually gets moved to 3B). We can name it the OH-Scale

[ChaosLex]

I'm surprised you guys don't have Crow ranked higher. I thought he was the best pitching prospect in the draft.

Is it because he's right-handed?

[baltosravns2110]

Of course he does...his name is an anagram of "homers," for Pete's sake.

I know and Justin Smoak just sounds like a power hitter.

Can't you hear the announcers now, That ball was SMOKED to deep left field, Gone!!!

[Stotle]

I'm surprised you guys don't have Crow ranked higher. I thought he was the best pitching prospect in the draft.

Is it because he's right-handed?

Hasn't been as dominant as of late. Stock is falling a bit.

[Stotle]

Man, why do you guys have to get into the really fun argument the ONE day I have stuff to do?

Ok so random comments in no order on things I flipped through. 5-tool 1B: Derek Lee, Connor Jackson and C. Kotchman might be the next 2 closest thing.

5-tool catcher: Russ Martin is the closest I can think of, but that is a bit of a stretch.

Ok, so why it is so interesting...I played college and a year of pro, as a 1B and my forte' was my defense. I was a right handed 1B which is a strike against you out of the gate, but extremely good with the glove, and yes there is a huge difference between 5 tools at one position versus another. At 1B fielding is much more important than arm strength, although if you have a weak-armed CF or RF in your lineup it becomes more important to have a strong armed 1B as they are the ones making any cut offs to the plate. Digs are immensely important at 1B though because of the number of chances they get and each one is the difference between an out and an error or a hit, so the impact on ERA is pretty impressive Not to mention the psychological difference of the INF knowing they can turn it loose and throw to you without worrying if you are going to drop it or miss it. When they start playing tentative, they stop making plays that you need to make.

Yes a 5-tool CF is more important than a 5-tool 1B but of the tools but that is what we should come up with. A rating scale that weights the 5-tools per position with say, more weight on fielding and power at 1B versus more for speed and average for say 2B or CF. The problem with that is there are people like Utley who break the mold for that position as a hitter (until he eventually gets moved to 3B). We can name it the OH-Scale

Nice post. Thanks for your insights.

[allstar1579]

Nice post. Thanks for your insights.

Thanks buddy, you know I had to chime in on any convo in this Forum

[markpolis]

Man, why do you guys have to get into the really fun argument the ONE day I have stuff to do?

Ok so random comments in no order on things I flipped through. 5-tool 1B: Derek Lee, Connor Jackson and C. Kotchman might be the next 2 closest thing.

5-tool catcher: Russ Martin is the closest I can think of, but that is a bit of a stretch.

Ok, so why it is so interesting...I played college and a year of pro, as a 1B and my forte' was my defense. I was a right handed 1B which is a strike against you out of the gate, but extremely good with the glove, and yes there is a huge difference between 5 tools at one position versus another. At 1B fielding is much more important than arm strength, although if you have a weak-armed CF or RF in your lineup it becomes more important to have a strong armed 1B as they are the ones making any cut offs to the plate. Digs are immensely important at 1B though because of the number of chances they get and each one is the difference between an out and an error or a hit, so the impact on ERA is pretty impressive Not to mention the psychological difference of the INF knowing they can turn it loose and throw to you without worrying if you are going to drop it or miss it. When they start playing tentative, they stop making plays that you need to make.

Yes a 5-tool CF is more important than a 5-tool 1B but of the tools but that is what we should come up with. A rating scale that weights the 5-tools per position with say, more weight on fielding and power at 1B versus more for speed and average for say 2B or CF. The problem with that is there are people like Utley who break the mold for that position as a hitter (until he eventually gets moved to 3B). We can name it the OH-Scale

Kotchman and Jackson have no speed whatsoever, same with Russell Martin.

Cliff Floyd is the only other 5-tool first basemen I can think of.

Still struggling to find a 5 tool catcher. The one's with speed lack in the power department. (Biggio and Kendell)

[McNulty]

Kotchman and Jackson have no speed whatsoever, same with Russell Martin.

Cliff Floyd is the only other 5-tool first basemen I can think of.

Still struggling to find a 5 tool catcher. The one's with speed lack in the power department. (Biggio and Kendell)

Are you really claiming that Cliff Floyd has speed and Russell Martin doesn't?

[allstar1579]

Kotchman and Jackson have no speed whatsoever, same with Russell Martin.

Cliff Floyd is the only other 5-tool first basemen I can think of.

Still struggling to find a 5 tool catcher. The one's with speed lack in the power department. (Biggio and Kendell)

The same where there is no separate cat. for digs and fielding with 1B, there is no separate cat. for speed versus good baserunning. While Martin might not be Carlos Gomez, he still ends up with 15-20 steals per year. So like I was saying, when you have to put weight to the tools categories, a 15SB catcher should rate close to a 60 for the position, whereas a 15SB CF wouldn't be that impressive.

For what the term "5-tool" has turned to in the mainstream, it really is referencing talents spread out among the categories, speed, avg, arm, defense, and power. In the mainstream if a player shows a bit in all of them, they get labeled as a 5-tool guy, even though to really be considered that you would have to be a plus in each cat.

[Stotle]

The same where there is no separate cat. for digs and fielding with 1B, there is no separate cat. for speed versus good baserunning. While Martin might not be Carlos Gomez, he still ends up with 15-20 steals per year. So like I was saying, when you have to put weight to the tools categories, a 15SB catcher should rate close to a 60 for the position, whereas a 15SB CF wouldn't be that impressive.

For what the term "5-tool" has turned to in the mainstream, it really is referencing talents spread out among the categories, speed, avg, arm, defense, and power. In the mainstream if a player shows a bit in all of them, they get labeled as a 5-tool guy, even though to really be considered that you would have to be a plus in each cat.

I agree, to an extent. You really need the scale to be across all positions, though, as you want the scouting card to tell you a story about the player in compariswon to everyone else. You want to know what other positions that player may be able to hold down (70 fielding, 60 arm, 60 speed could likely be tried anywhere, for example). I think once you get to the ML level, you could break down per position, but there is so much shifting at the HS/college/MiL level I'd think you don't necessarily want to tie a players ratings to his position at the time.

I could obviously be way off -- maybe these aren't real concerns. It's just my take.

[allstar1579]

I agree, to an extent. You really need the scale to be across all positions, though, as you want the scouting card to tell you a story about the player in compariswon to everyone else. You want to know what other positions that player may be able to hold down (70 fielding, 60 arm, 60 speed could likely be tried anywhere, for example). I think once you get to the ML level, you could break down per position, but there is so much shifting at the HS/college/MiL level I'd think you don't necessarily want to tie a players ratings to his position at the time.

I could obviously be way off -- maybe these aren't real concerns. It's just my take.

No, not at all, which is why I can't figure out exactly how to make it work. It's like you have to have a different projection scale for each position you want to project them at. A lot more work than it is really worth it, but it would eliminate a lot of the shifting, trial and error, and taking players with the thought of moving them, and then not being able to afterwards. It is probably much more applicable to current minor leaguers than draft prospects.

[ChaosLex]

Hasn't been as dominant as of late. Stock is falling a bit.

Thanks bud. I appreciate it.