Tropical Storm Hermine

[Crazysilver03]

Most tropical storms are fast moving. At worst, you might have one rainout.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSEastern/status/771096698647154688/photo/1

Literally takes 2 days for it to make it from VA/NC border to Long Island.

[BradyBunch]

I wonder how much this will affect other teams. And travel. Has the potential to cause lots of headaches.

For east coast teams, it's gonna be a nightmare. Nats are in NY over weekend and then back in DC on Monday. Braves are in Philly and then DC. Jays have to play in Tampa and then NYC.. that's gonna be a travel nightmare. Only winners is Boston who are on west coast trip. Would be surprised if Boston catches up to Blue Jays over the next 7 days.

[scOtt]

We shall see.

The Virginia beaches would deal with similar impacts Friday night to midday Saturday, while the Delmarva catches the brunt of the storm during the day Saturday, possibly continuing Saturday night or even into Sunday morning.

In this scenario, coastal flooding could close roads, and travel to/from the beaches, at least for a time, may be discouraged or impossible.

Areas as far west as the Interstate-95 corridor (Richmond, Washington, Baltimore) and even to the Interstate-81 corridor could have a period of moderate to heavy rain and some strong winds mostly during the day Saturday. Some models suggest the storm could stall close to the area, keeping rain around into Sunday.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/31/increasing-chances-for-tropical-storm-conditions-in-the-mid-atlantic-this-weekend/

Oh goodie! :sigh:

Oh well, we can use the rain.

[scOtt]

This has the feel of Agnes all over again.

Hush your mouth! I remember Agnes. It rained hard and steady for 3 or 4 days. And nights...

[Going Underground]

The latest models have it off the coast somewhat. They really don't know. looks like for Baltimore some rain late Saturday into Sunday morning. Could miss us altogether. They could always move Saturday's game up to 1 or something. They have done it before with a TD coming. Could be sunny all weekend. Get her done.

Potentially heavy rains from the system could total several inches but with recent track shifts farther to the east that looks more likely for the beaches rather than the immediate metro area. If the track shifts any further east, the weekend outlook could improve rather significantly for areas inland. Daytime highs are in the 70s and are unlikely to fall much overnight. Confidence: Low

Again this is a tricky forecast to say the least, but for now, windy and showery conditions are still possible to start the day Sunday. The storm looks like it has a hard time pushing north and this could keep showers, albeit lessening in intensity, through the afternoon. But if the storm takes a more easterly track, the day could end up quite nice. Temperatures remain in the 70s. Showers are currently expected to taper off overnight and winds gradually subside with lows in the 60s. Confidence: Low

[Can_of_corn]

Still clear here.

Most of the water from yesterday has drained off the roads so hopefully the relatively dry night helps with any flooding today.

Looks like we got 15 hours of rain coming up starting in about an hour.

Not sure if this is going to end up as bad as last year was.

Glad the tree that got struck by lightning a couple weeks ago is gone, I wouldn't want to see what sustained 40 mph winds might do to it.

[Going Underground]

Still clear here.

Most of the water from yesterday has drained off the roads so hopefully the relatively dry night helps with any flooding today.

Looks like we got 15 hours of rain coming up starting in about an hour.

Not sure if this is going to end up as bad as last year was.

Glad the tree that got struck by lightning a couple weeks ago is gone, I wouldn't want to see what sustained 40 mph winds might do to it.

Good luck and stay safe.

[Can_of_corn]

Good luck and stay safe.

Thanks, not particularly worried. Thankfully this isn't a big one.

[bobmc]

Thanks, not particularly worried. Thankfully this isn't a big one.

Two different pictures of FL Water Management:

Panhandle:

According the the National Weather Service?s latest forecast, Hermine will likely make landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast armpit connecting Florida?s panhandle to its dangling peninsula. This is in Suwannee River Water Management District?s jurisdiction. It is about the same size as New Jersey, and its biggest city is Lake City, population 12,046. ?We do not have flood control structures, not dams or canals,? says Abby Johnson, the water district spokesperson. Rain falling here trickles into rivers, and then to sea. Rather than control the flow, the district?s hydrologists watch inundation levels, and issue warnings?or evacuations?as needed.

South FL:

"Florida is relatively flat. Even so, the South Florida WMD?s drainage?which runs from west to east?is powered by gravity. Unless the ocean won?t let it. Typically, the district will simply close the flood gates. These are steel structures about 25 to 30 feet tall that span the breadth of each canal?s ocean outflow. But if inland rainfall gets to be too much, and threatens to overflow the canal?s banks, the water managers start turning on the pumps. The agency owns 70 diesel powered impellers, some strong enough to discharge up to 3 inches worth of rainfall in an hour."

http://www.wired.com/2016/09/floridas-flood-control-says-not-today-hermine/?mbid=social_twitter

[Can_of_corn]

Pinellas county got 10 inches of rain yesterday (one county south of where I am).

Not what you want to see with a tropical storm coming in.

[Can_of_corn]

Just starting to rain now.

No real wind yet.

[Going Underground]

Up in Maryland,anyone's guess.The

forecast leans heavily toward continuity for Sunday. Funny.

Attention then turns to what is currently Tropical Storm Hermine.

Yesterday`s noticeable westward shift in guidance has ended and

overnight runs of most guidance have shifted back eastward a bit

along with an increase in forward speed, at least in the short

term periods. See latest National Hurricane Center Advisory for

complete track details. Main idea however is that slightly faster

forward speed and eastward shift in near/short term track will

allow for a later and further northeast phase with upper level

energy. However, outcome/details are still fluid.

For now, greatest impacts look to be across southern Maryland,

with gusty winds and potential for heavy rain Saturday and into

Saturday night.

High temperatures Saturday dependent on cloud cover associated with

Hermine. Blended guidance currently gives mid/upper 70s, so will

not stray far from this for now with track discrepancies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Still a high degree of uncertainty regarding the potential impacts

from Hermine. Hermine is expected to slowly shift east off the

Mid-Atlantic Coast Sunday and it may become stationary just off

the coast during the early portion of next week. Please refer to

the National Hurricane Center for the latest regarding the

forecast with Hermine.

Latest 00z Guidance along with the 00z GEFS mean has trended a

bit further east with the track. Given the significant trends in

guidance over the last 24 hours along with the fact that there are

many players that will impact the track of this system...the

forecast leans heavily toward continuity for Sunday. Will continue

with the chance for rain mainly across the eastern areas during

this time. Any slight change in the track will have a significant

impact on the forecast so please stay tuned for the latest

updates.

[Orioles0615]

[bpilktree]

That would be unusual.

tell that to the Carolinas just last year if a cold front comes and blocks the tropic storm it has no where to go. That is South Carolina got well over 10 inches and just 30 miles north we got a few drops.

[Can_of_corn]

tell that to the Carolinas just last year if a cold front comes and blocks the tropic storm it has no where to go. That is South Carolina got well over 10 inches and just 30 miles north we got a few drops.

Like I said, the County south of mine got 10 inches yesterday and it was just a rainy day.

Was going moderately hard there for a bit. Pretty much stopped again now. Might go check the mail.