CBS predicts that Wieters "unlikely" to get a QO; Trumbo definitely gets one

[Redskins Rick]

And may never catch again.

Many folks believe he wont, and some believe if he does, it will be extremely limited role.

[Babypowder]

Sure, a 4 year guaranteed deal will easily get him $50M, and he should be seeking guaranteed money at this point in his career. Cruz got $58M two years ago after putting up very similar offensive numbers.

Similar by what measure? Cruz was a lot better.

[Redskins Rick]

Similar by what measure? Cruz was a lot better.

Cruz was better than Trumbo???????????????????????????

[MDtransplant757]

I think Trumbo would almost assuredly reject the QO. Someone will wishcast him into a 3+ win first baseman and sign him to a 4/65 deal.

But what do I know? I still think Wieters would have gotten $30M+ on the open market last year.

Wieters is poised to make more this year, as the only good catchers on the market are him and an injured Wilson Ramos

[Ohfan67]

Cruz was better than Trumbo???????????????????????????

OPS+ of 137 versus 120.

[Redskins Rick]

OPS+ of 137 versus 120.

This is what I see

Cruz in 2014 43-105, OPS of .859

Trumbo in 2016, 47-108 and OPS of .850

[DrungoHazewood]

Cruz was better than Trumbo???????????????????????????

Well, yea. Average of f/rWAR for Cruz: 4.2. Trumbo: 1.9. Cruz was twice as productive relative to replacement level.

[25 Nuggets]

This is what I see

Cruz in 2014 43-105, OPS of .859

Trumbo in 2016, 47-108 and OPS of .850

Run scoring environment way up in 2016 compared to 2014.

[BradyBunch]

And may never catch again.

Ramos turned down a 3 yr deal. Probably kicking himself now knowing he's out for most of 2017 and teams are gonna low all him.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is what I see

Cruz in 2014 43-105, OPS of .859

Trumbo in 2016, 47-108 and OPS of .850

In context Cruz was a better hitter, and a better outfielder. League OPS was .038 points higher in 2016 than 2014, so it's more like .897 vs .850 by a common baseline.

[Redskins Rick]

In context Cruz was a better hitter, and a better outfielder. League OPS was .038 points higher in 2016 than 2014, so it's more like .897 vs .850 by a common baseline.

Cruz was a tiny bit better as a fielder, -1.5 to -2.1, but Trumbo played 26 more games in the OF, than Cruz.

A.897 vs .850, is not a huge difference.

[Redskins Rick]

Id re-sign him. Im pretty sure im in the minority here, but he takes a lot of power pressure off Davis, who had a bad year last year despite some seemingly impressive numbers.

Count me in your minority.

[DrungoHazewood]

Cruz was a tiny bit better as a fielder, -1.5 to -2.1, but Trumbo played 26 more games in the OF, than Cruz.

A.897 vs .850, is not a huge difference.

Add up the runs. Trumbo was 14 runs better than an average hitter in the context of half your games in OPACY in 2016. He was about 11 runs worse than average in the field. His combination of DH and OF meant that his positional adjustment was -10. And he was a dead even, zero, baserunner. That adds up to 14-11-10+0 = seven runs below average.

Cruz was +30 on offense, +3 in the field, positional adjustment of -11, and he was a -2 baserunner. That's 30+3-11-2 = 20 runs above average, or about 27 runs better than Trumbo, which is just shy of three wins.

Now...maybe you think Cruz' defense isn't fairly represented. I think +3 is suspicious, that's his best mark since 2010. So let's say he's a -5 fielder, which makes him only 19 runs or two wins ahead of Trumbo.

I don't see how any reasonable assumptions put Trumbo within a win and a half of Cruz.

[Redskins Rick]

Add up the runs. Trumbo was 14 runs better than an average hitter in the context of half your games in OPACY in 2016. He was about 11 runs worse than average in the field. His combination of DH and OF meant that his positional adjustment was -10. And he was a dead even, zero, baserunner. That adds up to 14-11-10+0 = seven runs below average.

Cruz was +30 on offense, +3 in the field, positional adjustment of -11, and he was a -2 baserunner. That's 30+3-11-2 = 20 runs above average, or about 27 runs better than Trumbo, which is just shy of three wins.

Now...maybe you think Cruz' defense isn't fairly represented. I think +3 is suspicious, that's his best mark since 2010. So let's say he's a -5 fielder, which makes him only 19 runs or two wins ahead of Trumbo.

I don't see how any reasonable assumptions put Trumbo within a win and a half of Cruz.

Ok, I concede to the stat gurus.

[VeveJones007]

No idea until the new CBA is set. Teams may not have to give up a pick for signing a player that received the QO. If that's the case, it might make offering Wieters the QO worthwhile for the O's.