When Dan says, "To me he's a closer"...

[sportsfan8703]

People forget in the offseason how valuable Brach is.  But during the season when we're up 5-4 after 5, everyone is sitting there like "Ok, let's go Brach/Givens/O'day/Britton and finish this W out".  Just think, as bad as our SP was last year, it was supported with a great bullpen behind it.  You take an integral piece of that great bullpen away and you're now asking the rotation to pitch a little extra.  

Everyone loves Givens now after the WC game.  Which is fine.  But do you trust Givens vs. LH's?  Remember, Brach was essentially our go to reliever vs. LH's 3/4ths of the season.  Brach's numbers are laughable.  

2016 vs RH's 166 PA's .399 OPS(LOL, "he's just another guy overrated by O's fans")

vs LH's 145 PA's 784 OPS

Givens vs RH's 215 PA's .504 OPS

vs LH's 98 PA's 1.025 OPS ("Future closer, better than Brach")

 

You guys crack me up.  Brach wasn't babied like Givens.  He wasn't "matched up".  He pitched whenever we needed him, vs whatever batter, and went as long as we needed him.  But yeah, he's overrated and we should eat 15-20 million in salary for 1 year of an overpriced COF.  LOL

Glad this argument is meaningless because our GM feels the same way.  Who btw is one of the worst in baseball.  HAHA

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Use might have been a factor, but closers tend to be put into situations where they might have to deal with fatigue (three in a row for example).

If fatigue was a factor it would in itself lower his value somewhat.

Britton pitched 67 innings, Brach pitched 79.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Britton pitched 67 innings, Brach pitched 79.  

Hence me specifically mentioning the three consecutive games scenario.

My point however remains the same, a perceived lack of endurance could hurt his value.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not sure I agree with that math.    I bet if you looked at most good relief pitchers, they had a few appearances that "skewed" their performance the rest of the time.

Here are some relievers who had ERA's within .10 of Brach's:

Addison Reed - 0.1 IP, 3 ER

Raisel Iglesias - 1.0 IP, 4 ER

Dan Jennings - 0.1 IP, 3 ER

Mike Montgomery - 0.1 IP, 3 ER

Tyler Thornburg - 0.2 IP, 4 ER

There were two other pitchers in the group that never allowed 3 ER in an appearance.   So, bottom line, most relievers of Brach's quality had one meltdown during the course of the season that skewed their ERA.  

[Number5]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I didn't explain it well enough for you?

 

Surprising.

 

I will go with the definition I am already using, I consider it lucky if I thought, watching the appearance, he should have given up one or more runs.

 

 

So, once again, you expect that we at all times know what you are thinking - and agree with it.  You can't even share with us what about these three appearances cause you to say that Brach escaped due to luck?  I'm saying point blank what happened in that one appearance.  I am also challenging the idea that escaping a jam always means that a pitcher was lucky.  Good pitchers get out of jams.  Often.  It is too much to ask that you tell us why he was lucky, in your opinion?  He just was because you say so?  And I'm off base for even asking you because I should know that if you said he was lucky, well, that should be the end of it?  You sarcastically ask if you explained it enough -- you didn't explain it at all.  Surprising.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Number5 said:

So, once again, you expect that we at all times know what you are thinking - and agree with it.  You can't even share with us what about these three appearances cause you to say that Brach escaped due to luck?  I'm saying point blank what happened in that one appearance.  I am also challenging the idea that escaping a jam always means that a pitcher was lucky.  Good pitchers get out of jams.  Often.  It is too much to ask that you tell us why he was lucky, in your opinion?  He just was because you say so?  And I'm off base for even asking you because I should know that if you said he was lucky, well, that should be the end of it?  You sarcastically ask if you explained it enough -- you didn't explain it at all.  Surprising.

I never said that escaping a jam always means that a pitcher was lucky.

Where did I say that?

Back in 2015 O'Day backed himself into a couple bases loaded 0 out situations and proceeded to throw absolute filth to get out of it.  I don't consider that lucky.

And yes I refuse to go back over game logs to try and figure out what appearnces I thought Brach should have given up runs in.

Are you trying to say that, aside from that one appearance, that Brach looked like an elite guy in the second half to you?

Because the folks in the game threads last fall wouldn't have agreed with you.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Number5 said:

So, once again, you expect that we at all times know what you are thinking - and agree with it.  You can't even share with us what about these three appearances cause you to say that Brach escaped due to luck?  I'm saying point blank what happened in that one appearance.  I am also challenging the idea that escaping a jam always means that a pitcher was lucky.  Good pitchers get out of jams.  Often.  It is too much to ask that you tell us why he was lucky, in your opinion?  He just was because you say so?  And I'm off base for even asking you because I should know that if you said he was lucky, well, that should be the end of it?  You sarcastically ask if you explained it enough -- you didn't explain it at all.  Surprising.

Oh and if you don't care for my homespun definition of a lucky appearance we can use FIP.  

That is what it is for after all.

[sportsfan8703]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Britton pitched 67 innings, Brach pitched 79.  

Britton is rarely asked to come into a game that isn't a clean start to the inning.  Which again is fine, but Brach comes in during the middle of innings all the time.  I'd argue that Brach is in a more valuable role than Britton in being the teams "firestopper", rather than starting clean innings as the "closer".  We've debated this topic for years on here.  Now we have a throwback "firestopper" in Brach and we are "underrating" him.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Britton is rarely asked to come into a game that isn't a clean start to the inning.  Which again is fine, but Brach comes in during the middle of innings all the time.  I'd argue that Brach is in a more valuable role than Britton in being the teams "firestopper", rather than starting clean innings as the "closer".  We've debated this topic for years on here.  Now we have a throwback "firestopper" in Brach and we are "underrating" him.  

I don't think we are underrating him.  He had a fabulous first half, just amazing.

But his second half was mundane and I think it hurts his value going forward.

[Number5]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I never said that escaping a jam always means that a pitcher was lucky.

Where did I say that?

Back in 2015 O'Day backed himself into a couple bases loaded 0 out situations and proceeded to throw absolute filth to get out of it.  I don't consider that lucky.

And yes I refuse to go back over game logs to try and figure out what appearnces I thought Brach should have given up runs in.

Are you trying to say that, aside from that one appearance, that Brach looked like an elite guy in the second half to you?

Because the folks in the game threads last fall wouldn't have agreed with you.

You said that you distinctly remember three games that Brach escaped without giving up a run due to luck.  I simply asked what was lucky about them.  You still haven't answered.  In fact you now seem to be saying that you don't remember them at all and you don't have time to go back thru the game logs.  I didn't say that you said escaping a jam was lucky, I said that the mere fact that a pitcher escapes a jam does not mean he was lucky.  In other words, in asking you to share with us why Brach escaped jams due to luck, the mere fact that he escaped the jam is not, in and of itself, reason to claim it was due to luck.  Glad to hear that you agree with me on that point.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

People forget in the offseason how valuable Brach is.  But during the season when we're up 5-4 after 5, everyone is sitting there like "Ok, let's go Brach/Givens/O'day/Britton and finish this W out".  Just think, as bad as our SP was last year, it was supported with a great bullpen behind it.  You take an integral piece of that great bullpen away and you're now asking the rotation to pitch a little extra.  

Everyone loves Givens now after the WC game.  Which is fine.  But do you trust Givens vs. LH's?  Remember, Brach was essentially our go to reliever vs. LH's 3/4ths of the season.  Brach's numbers are laughable.  

2016 vs RH's 166 PA's .399 OPS(LOL, "he's just another guy overrated by O's fans")

vs LH's 145 PA's 784 OPS

Givens vs RH's 215 PA's .504 OPS

vs LH's 98 PA's 1.025 OPS ("Future closer, better than Brach")

 

You guys crack me up.  Brach wasn't babied like Givens.  He wasn't "matched up".  He pitched whenever we needed him, vs whatever batter, and went as long as we needed him.  But yeah, he's overrated and we should eat 15-20 million in salary for 1 year of an overpriced COF.  LOL

 

I can't really disagree with this, except to say that I think Givens showed flashes of improvement vs. LHB's in the second half and he was good against them in 2015, so I have some optimism that he'll be better against them in the future than he was in 2016.    Given the choice, with lefties coming up I'd rather have Brach than Britton.

[Justinlstn]

Brach is valuable in his ability to excel at his role, but he does not have the value as a proven closer. Some guys cannot handle the stress. I don't know if Brach can but he hasn't proven he can.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Number5 said:

You said that you distinctly remember three games that Brach escaped without giving up a run due to luck.  I simply asked what was lucky about them.  You still haven't answered.  In fact you now seem to be saying that you don't remember them at all and you don't have time to go back thru the game logs.  I didn't say that you said escaping a jam was lucky, I said that the mere fact that a pitcher escapes a jam does not mean he was lucky.  In other words, in asking you to share with us why Brach escaped jams due to luck, the mere fact that he escaped the jam is not, in and of itself, reason to claim it was due to luck.  Glad to hear that you agree with me on that point.

I never said "distinctly".

I already set my criteria for "lucky".  I kindly offered to use FIP instead.

You never replied when I asked if you thought Brach looked like an elite guy to you in the second half.

With or without the one appearance you like to blame things on Brach didn't have a good second half.

 

[Number5]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I never said "distinctly".

I already set my criteria for "lucky".  I kindly offered to use FIP instead.

You never replied when I asked if you thought Brach looked like an elite guy to you in the second half.

With or without the one appearance you like to blame things on Brach didn't have a good second half.

 

LOL.  Leaping on one word to save you?  You said you remembered three games.  That's pretty darned distinct.  You haven't given one reason that he was lucky in any of these games.  Frankly, I think you are arguing just to argue. 

 No, you haven't shared your criteria for his being lucky, other than to say it is all in your head.  Your argument is just like the guy that argues against various metrics and statistics because of his "eye test."  In fact, your criteria for what made Brach "lucky" in those games was all I asked you for and you have gone on for over an hour now without, even once, saying one thing about any of those games that can be attributed to luck.

FIP ignores pitching to defense, as you know. 

Brach was better in the first half than the second half.  Of course, most pitchers in the history of the game would have trouble matching his first half.  How was he lucky again?

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Number5 said:

So, once again, you expect that we at all times know what you are thinking - and agree with it.  You can't even share with us what about these three appearances cause you to say that Brach escaped due to luck?  I'm saying point blank what happened in that one appearance.  I am also challenging the idea that escaping a jam always means that a pitcher was lucky.  Good pitchers get out of jams.  Often.  It is too much to ask that you tell us why he was lucky, in your opinion?  He just was because you say so?  And I'm off base for even asking you because I should know that if you said he was lucky, well, that should be the end of it?  You sarcastically ask if you explained it enough -- you didn't explain it at all.  Surprising.

May 18: Brach leaves with the bases loaded and 1 out, gets bailed out.

May 29: Brach leaves with runners on 2nd and 3rd, nobody out, get bailed out.  

August 2: Brach leaves the bases loaded and 2 out, gets bailed out.

Those are three times his line could have looked a lot worse but the pitcher who followed Brach got him out of trouble.   I guess you could call that "luck."    On the year, Brach bequeathed 17 runners and only two scored, which is very fortunate for him (major league average is 31%).   At the same time, Brach inherited 27 runners in 2016, and only 3 scored, so he gave as good as he got, and probably better.