When Dan says, "To me he's a closer"...

[Orange]

...what he's really saying is that we're going to trade him before it comes time to negotiate with him.  Because that mess comes back to haunt you and even though DD looks and talks kinda dopey, he's extraordinarily sharp.  My guess is that you'll see a pretty decent prospect (or two) kicked into the Granderson-Brach deal.  And maybe 20% of Granderson's contract in cash.

Or maybe another RF... but Brach for a RF is gonna happen. 

[Moondoggie]

I think it's a marketing ploy. Dan probably thinks if he can frame Brach as a closer he might squeeze more out of somebody for him. I'm not seeing it though. Brach is a good setup guy, but he was actually rather mediocre in the second half last season (3.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over his last 31 games). Other clubs know this. They saw him when he was terrific before the All-Star break and when he wasn't afterward. Dan (like a lot of O's fans) overrates Brach. We'll see if he can get something that satisfies him in return.

[ExileAngelos]

13 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

I think it's a marketing ploy. Dan probably thinks if he can frame Brach as a closer he might squeeze more out of somebody for him. I'm not seeing it though. Brach is a good setup guy, but he was actually rather mediocre in the second half last season (3.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over his last 31 games). Other clubs know this. They saw him when he was terrific before the All-Star break and when he wasn't afterward. Dan (like a lot of O's fans) overrates Brach. We'll see if he can get something that satisfies him in return.

Brach isn't overrated.   He was excellent prior to last year as well.  He was overused last season when O'Day went down.  Brach has nasty stuff and I expect him to returning to dominate form.   If clubs think he is overrated then will gladly keep him here.

[Number5]

20 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

I think it's a marketing ploy. Dan probably thinks if he can frame Brach as a closer he might squeeze more out of somebody for him. I'm not seeing it though. Brach is a good setup guy, but he was actually rather mediocre in the second half last season (3.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over his last 31 games). Other clubs know this. They saw him when he was terrific before the All-Star break and when he wasn't afterward. Dan (like a lot of O's fans) overrates Brach. We'll see if he can get something that satisfies him in return.

Yeah, I think you are mistaken if you don't believe Brach is sought after by many MLB teams.  It is you that is being fooled by a SSS fluke (one game on Oct. 1 when the third out was missed on an obviously blown strike three call before any of the four runs were scored), not other posters, not the Orioles, and not other teams.  Four of his total of 18 earned runs were scored because of that one blown call.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Yeah, I think you are mistaken if you don't believe Brach is sought after by many MLB teams.  It is you that is being fooled by a SSS fluke (one game on Oct. 1 when the third out was missed on an obviously blown strike three call before any of the four runs were scored), not other posters, not the Orioles, and not other teams.  Four of his total of 18 earned runs were scored because of that one blown call.

I seem to recall a number of tightrope acts that probably should have resulted in runs scored as well.

My guess is they kinda even out.

[Moondoggie]

17 minutes ago, ExileAngelos said:

Brach isn't overrated.   He was excellent prior to last year as well.  He was overused last season when O'Day went down.  Brach has nasty stuff and I expect him to returning to dominate form.   If clubs think he is overrated then will gladly keep him here.

Clubs who scout him see him for what he is -- a good setup guy. But when fans start talking about dealing him straight up for Carlos Gonzalez or when Dan asks for more than teams are willing to give up for him (see the Mallex Smith thread), then he's being overrated. And if he's going to be a closer, he needs to get used to being used a lot.

[Number5]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I seem to recall a number of tightrope acts that probably should have resulted in runs scored as well.

My guess is they kinda even out.

No, they really don't for late inning guys.  One crazy game like that takes a month or two to overcome.  You got a guy wit a 2 ERA.  4 runs in a third of an inning.  How many one-inning appearances does it take to make up for that?

[Number5]

5 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

Clubs who scout him see him for what he is -- a good setup guy. But when fans start talking about dealing him straight up for Carlos Gonzalez or when Dan asks for more than teams are willing to give up for him (see the Mallex Smith thread), then he's being overrated. And if he's going to be a closer, he needs to get used to being used a lot.

Please understand that contract status matters.  This isn't a redrft fantasy league we are talking about.  Brach is more valuable in real-life MLB than Carlos Gonzales right now by a wide margin.  Gonzales is owed $20 million this year and then walks.  You chose a very bad example to attempt to make your point with. 

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Number5 said:

No, they really don't for late inning guys.  One crazy game like that takes a month or two to overcome.  You got a guy wit a 2 ERA.  4 runs in a third of an inning.  How many one-inning appearances does it take to make up for that?

If he "lucked" out of allowing two runs in one appearance and one run in another than yea it "kinda evened out".

Brach looked like a guy in the second half and his stats reflect that.  He had a bad break in that one appearance and some good breaks in others.

[Moondoggie]

7 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Yeah, I think you are mistaken if you don't believe Brach is sought after by many MLB teams.  It is you that is being fooled by a SSS fluke (one game on Oct. 1 when the third out was missed on an obviously blown strike three call before any of the four runs were scored), not other posters, not the Orioles, and not other teams.  Four of his total of 18 earned runs were scored because of that one blown call.

I didn't say he wasn't sought after. I said other clubs aren't particularly looking at him as a closer. And you can pull a game out of almost any pitcher's stats and make him look a lot better. The fact is that his ERA at the All-Star break was 0.93. Heading into that Oct. 1 game it had risen to 1.60 -- two thirds of a run. In fact, his earned run average in August was 5.06 (worse than the Sept./Oct. number that includes your cherry picking). His WHIP was 1.50 that month and his SO/BB ration had dropped to 2.60. So it wasn't just that one game. It was all of August and September.

If Brach is such a world class stud, why didn't the Braves trade Mallex Smith and another prospect for him? Why didn't the Orioles get a deal done with the Mets? Brach is a good relief pitcher. He's not a stud relief pitcher. Sure, he has some great stuff. So do relief pitchers in every bullpen in the majors.  

[Number5]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he "lucked" out of allowing two runs in one appearance and one run in another than yea it "kinda evened out".

Brach looked like a guy in the second half and his stats reflect that.  He had a bad break in that one appearance and some good breaks in others.

The effect of that one appearance upon his whole season's stats is quite obvious, whether you wish to say otherwise or not.

[Spy Fox]

1 minute ago, Number5 said:

The effect of that one appearance upon his whole season's stats is quite obvious, whether you wish to say otherwise or not.

Yes, appearances where pitchers give up lots of runs can be obvious. I think what Can of Corn is saying is that there are probably other appearances where Brach was lucky instead of unlucky and that  those appearances are less obvious, but still have an effect on Brach's overall stats. 

[Number5]

2 minutes ago, Moondoggie said:

I didn't say he wasn't sought after. I said other clubs aren't particularly looking at him as a closer. And you can pull a game out of almost any pitcher's stats and make him look a lot better. The fact is that his ERA at the All-Star break was 0.93. Heading into that Oct. 1 game it had risen to 1.60 -- two thirds of a run. In fact, his earned run average in August was 5.06 (worse than the Sept./Oct. number that includes your cherry picking). His WHIP was 1.50 that month and his SO/BB ration had dropped to 2.60. So it wasn't just that one game. It was all of August and September.

If Brach is such a world class stud, why didn't the Braves trade Mallex Smith and another prospect for him? Why didn't the Orioles get a deal done with the Mets? Brach is a good relief pitcher. He's not a stud relief pitcher. Sure, he has some great stuff. So do relief pitchers in every bullpen in the majors.  

If you wish to imagine that the Braves and Mets have no interest in Brach, be my guest.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Number5 said:

The effect of that one appearance upon his whole season's stats is quite obvious, whether you wish to say otherwise or not.

Shocking you once again can not divine my meaning.

 

I am not saying that one appearance wasn't impactfull.

 

I am saying that whatever "bad luck" he had in that one appearance canceled out "good luck" he had enjoyed when he escaped without allowing runs in appearances that he did not look good in.

 

Do you think, overall, that Brach looked like a "closer type" in the second half?

 

I think his ERA and WHIP ended up right about where his talent level was in the second half.

[Moondoggie]

8 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Please understand that contract status matters.  This isn't a redrft fantasy league we are talking about.  Brach is more valuable in real-life MLB than Carlos Gonzales right now by a wide margin.  Gonzales is owed $20 million this year and then walks.  You chose a very bad example to attempt to make your point with. 

So you're saying Brach is worth more than Kevin Gausman then? Because that's who the Rockies ask for every time they talk to the Orioles. They don't ask for Brach. Also, while the top relief pitchers are getting paid, there are a lot of guys out there like Brach. And you do realize, don't you, that Brach has only two years left. If you think that two years of a setup guy is worth more than one year of Carlos Gonzalez to a club that's trying to win, then I don't even know what else to say to you because that's completely unreasonable. Let's put it this way. When Gonzalez's contract runs out, he'll get a qualifying offer. Do you really think anybody is going to offer Brad Brach a chance to make $17 million for one season?