Is now a good time to extend Gausman?

[Frobby]

Kevin Gausman's arbitration hearing is scheduled for Monday.   He's at $3.55 mm, and the O's are at $3.15 mm.   Based on the comps I listed in another thread, I see this one as a toss-up.

Gausman is a Super-2, under team control the next four seasons.    Is it worth it to try to sign him to a long term deal now?   How about:

$3.35 mm

$5.5 mm

$9 mm

$11.5 mm

$13 mm

$15 mm (team option, $2 mm buyout)

$16 mm (team option, $2 mm buyout)

That's 5/$43.85 guaranteed, possibly going to 7/$72.85 if the options are exercised.   Gives Gausman good long-term security 4 years from FA, probably saves the O's $15-20 mm if Gausman stays healthy and pitches well.

Thoughts?

[Tx Oriole]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Kevin Gausman's arbitration hearing is scheduled for Monday.   He's at $3.55 mm, and the O's are at $3.15 mm.   Based on the comps I listed in another thread, I see this one as a toss-up.

Gausman is a Super-2, under team control the next four seasons.    Is it worth it to try to sign him to a long term deal now?   How about:

$3.35 mm

$5.5 mm

$9 mm

$11.5 mm

$13 mm

$15 mm (team option, $2 mm buyout)

$16 mm (team option, $2 mm buyout)

That's 5/$43.85 guaranteed, possibly going to 7/$62.85 if the options are exercised.   Gives Gausman good long-term security 4 years from FA, probably saves the O's $15-20 mm if Gausman stays healthy and pitches well.

Thoughts?

I don't know what to think about that. 

[Aristotelian]

He's a good pitcher. Just guarantee him the 7 years. He won't be worse than Gallardo. It will be an Adam Jones type of deal. I would much rather extend Gausman than Tillman.

[clapdiddy]

We should be looking to get him into the same style deal that St. Louis just did with Carlos Martinez.   It's a 5/51 deal with two team options.  

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

We should be looking to get him into the same style deal that St. Louis just did with Carlos Martinez.   It's a 5/51 deal with two team options.  

Good comp.    The big difference is that Martinez is only under team control for 3 more years, Gausman 4.    And, Martinez has been a bit better.    Still, I think the deal I suggested is very similar.

[Spy Fox]

I think it's a great idea but we've never seen the Orioles do anything quite like it this far from free agency, have we?

[clapdiddy]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Good comp.    The big difference is that Martinez is only under team control for 3 more years, Gausman 4.    And, Martinez has been a bit better.    Still, I think the deal I suggested is very similar.

Yeah...I'd be fine with the deal you outlined.   Shame we didn't do something sooner with Manny.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I think it's a great idea but we've never seen the Orioles do anything quite like it this far from free agency, have we?

Nope.    Frankly I'd be shocked if they did anything like it, given PA's aversion to long-term deals with pitchers.     But I'm still curious about opinions here.   

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I think it's a great idea but we've never seen the Orioles do anything quite like it this far from free agency, have we?

They have extended guys that have started the arbitration process, but not any pitchers I can think of off the top of my head.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Yeah...I'd be fine with the deal you outlined.   Shame we didn't do something sooner with Manny.

They needed to call him when he was loopy on the anesthesia.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Nope.    Frankly I'd be shocked if they did anything like it, given PA's aversion to long-term deals with pitchers.     But I'm still curious about opinions here.   

I'd do it.  No idea if Gausman would agree.  It's pretty impossible to forecast which players are willing to extend at a reasonable rate.

[Frobby]

I made a math mistake in the OP, which I've corrected.   If the options are exercised it's 7/$72.85 mm, not $62.85 mm.    The Martinez deal is 7/$86 mm if the options are exercised.    That includes one more year of free agent eligibility than my Gausman proposal, even though the deals are the same length.   

[Spy Fox]

If Gausman is open to it I hope we jump on it though I agree it's unlikely given PA's history. 

Drastic injury is the only way I see a deal like that backfiring. I don't know the more formal scouts' take but from we've seen at the MLB level it seems like Gausman has a pretty high floor. I'd bank on him having a solid career as at least a #3 type with the potential for a few more ace-like seasons. 

[tntoriole]

I would do it too.  And I think there is a good chance Gausman would too. 

[wildcard]

It's unOriole.   Can't see the O's doing it. When was the last time the O's even went 5 years with a pitcher?  Erickson?