Glenn Clark: Are The 2017 Orioles Actually Better Than They Were In 2016?

[PaulFolk]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

Those numbers set the bar low, shouldn't be that difficult to improve upon them.

You would think, but we've heard this tune before. The O's rotation had a 4.53 ERA in 2015, second-worst in the AL, and I'm sure people were saying it wouldn't be that hard to improve in 2016. And yet they got worse -- a 4.72 ERA in 2016.

That doesn't mean the O's rotation will continue to get worse, but it's not as easy as saying, "They were bad last year, so they're bound to improve this year." They might, but I wouldn't bet the house on it. On paper, right now, Gausman is the only starter I have real confidence in. Tillman's hurt, Bundy is still an unknown quality in terms of both health and effectiveness, and Ubaldo and Miley could either be solid or be terrible.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

 Tillman will have to show no ill effects of the shoulder or it's likely his days as an Oriole are numbered.

Thus the importance of him having a good year in spite of his current injury.   He was 16-6 last year.   If he is all of a sudden on the DL for a good part of the year, its a lot for other less accomplished starters to make up.

Right now there is not reason to believe that Gausman, Bundy. Miley and Jimenez are injured.   That is the separating factor that makes what happens to Tillman so important.

[PaulFolk]

35 minutes ago, thezeroes said:

Betts had two months of off the wall stats that carried his year (July/August).

Bogaerts had two months (May/June) of off the wall stats and the league adjusted to make him .863 OPS first half/.729 OPS second half.

Bradley had two excellent months (May and July) and basically was below replacement offensively three of the last four months.

The trio have shown flashes but not exactly consistent in there respective career years.  Could go either way as far as the career trend. IMO

Betts put up an MVP-type performance at the age of 23, and all three of his seasons in the majors have been well above average. To suggest he could "go either way" as far as his career trend seems off-base. Unless by "either way" you mean he'll be either very good or ridiculously good.

Bogaerts has put together two very strong seasons in a row at ages 22 and 23. If you want to say he's had an inconsistent career because he wasn't a star in his age 20 and 21 seasons, that seems a bit harsh to me. I'd be surprised if he didn't have another strong year this season, barring injury, and he hasn't reached his prime yet.

As for Bradley, I don't know where you're getting that he was below replacement offensively three of the last four months. His only truly bad month offensively was August, and don't forget that he plays a Gold Glove-caliber center field. He's had two very good seasons in a row.

I think you're grasping at straws here. I hate to admit it as an Orioles fan, but the Red Sox have three excellent young players in their lineup (not to mention Benintendi, the #1 prospect in baseball) who don't figure to regress anytime soon.

[Il BuonO]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

Thus the importance of him having a good year in spite of his current injury.   He was 16-6 last year.   If he is all of a sudden on the DL for a good part of the year, its a lot for other less accomplished starters to make up.

Right now there is not reason to believe that Gausman, Bundy. Miley and Jimenez are injured.   That is the separating factor that makes what happens to Tillman so important.

Any idea what his record (not the best barometer) was or how he performed after coming back from the DL?

[Il BuonO]

6 hours ago, PaulFolk said:

Betts put up an MVP-type performance at the age of 23, and all three of his seasons in the majors have been well above average. To suggest he could "go either way" as far as his career trend seems off-base. Unless by "either way" you mean he'll be either very good or ridiculously good.

Bogaerts has put together two very strong seasons in a row at ages 22 and 23. If you want to say he's had an inconsistent career because he wasn't a star in his age 20 and 21 seasons, that seems a bit harsh to me. I'd be surprised if he didn't have another strong year this season, barring injury, and he hasn't reached his prime yet.

As for Bradley, I don't know where you're getting that he was below replacement offensively three of the last four months. His only truly bad month offensively was August, and don't forget that he plays a Gold Glove-caliber center field. He's had two very good seasons in a row.

I think you're grasping at straws here. I hate to admit it as an Orioles fan, but the Red Sox have three excellent young players in their lineup (not to mention Benintendi, the #1 prospect in baseball) who don't figure to regress anytime soon.

Agree, their young guys make me envious.

[Norfolk orioles]

And now they get to throw Chris Sale out there.

 

Ugh.

[ArtVanDelay]

22 hours ago, wildcard said:

 

I think this is a 92-93 win team if Tillman stays healthy.   If he goes down early they could be a 82-83 wins.

 

 

So you think Tillman is worth 10 wins?

[ArtVanDelay]

On 2/19/2017 at 11:35 PM, FanSince88 said:

Good assessment.  

I doubt AJ will get better, sadly.  Love the guy, but his defense is declining and his bat could take another small dip this year.  Hate to say it but we could be looking at a .260 AVG for AJ in 2017.  Which still isn't terrible but we may need to lower our expectations a little.  

Batting average tells you nothing though. He hit .269 in 2015 and was a 3 win player.  He hit .265 last year and was a 1 win player. 

[25 Nuggets]

The Red Sox are maybe better than last year.  I have them about even, a 95-ish win team.  That pretty much amounts to them losing David Ortiz and picking up Chris Sale.  The loss of Ortiz will have an effect up-and-down the lineup.  They are not scoring 101 runs more than any other team in the AL again.  In fact I think Cleveland scores the most runs in the AL this year.  On the other hand, with Sale, their rotation matches up with anyone and with Moreland kicking Han-Ram to DH, their defense is elite everywhere except SS/3B.

i don't see how the Yankees are appreciably better, yet.  I think in a couple years they will resume their place as kings of the AL East.  Not now.  They are however probably the best 4th place team on paper in baseball.  Depends on how Arizona rebounds from a miserable underachievement in 2016.  They'll be sort of in the Wild Card hunt just like last year..

The Orioles are about the same too in my opinion.

The one team in the AL East that I think is worse is Toronto.  Kendrys Morales is a step down from Edwin Encarnacion, period.  Ezequiel Carrera and/or Melvin Upton are a step down from Michael Saunders.  Bautista is a year older and his defense in RF is out the door.  Josh Donaldson is already dinged up and they cannot afford him to remain that way through the season or else they will have trouble scoring runs.

So, from what I see, the AL East looks like Boston-Baltimore-Toronto-New York-Tampa.  Baltimore, Toronto and New York are in the Wild Card mix again with Baltimore taking a spot - and they play Detroit or an AL West team in the play in game.  The Orioles need to win that game this time.  Using Zach Britton may help.

[ExileAngelos]

On 2/19/2017 at 7:02 PM, Frobby said:

I'm pretty sure Britton's hit his ceiling.    

Britton didn't just hit his ceiling.   He hit THE ceiling. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, ExileAngelos said:

Britton didn't just hit his ceiling.   He hit THE ceiling. 

Sure is hard to improve on not blowing a save all year as a closer. I guess did lose that one game and allowed four earned runs, so i guess in theory he could be even better. lol

[FanSince88]

8 hours ago, ArtVanDelay said:

So you think Tillman is worth 10 wins?

He's overestimating the amount of wins Tillman gives us.  I say we're an 87-89 win team with Tillman, 82-84 win team without.  

[Frobby]

Just now, FanSince88 said:

He's overestimating the amount of wins Tillman gives us.  I say we're an 87-89 win team with Tillman, 82-84 win team without.  

The big issue is, how does Tillman's replacement do?     Last year the O's won 22 of Tillman's 30 starts.     Is it far fetched to think a replacement might generate only 12 team wins?    Depends how bad the replacement does.

[FlipTheBird]

18 hours ago, PaulFolk said:

Betts put up an MVP-type performance at the age of 23, and all three of his seasons in the majors have been well above average. To suggest he could "go either way" as far as his career trend seems off-base. Unless by "either way" you mean he'll be either very good or ridiculously good.

Bogaerts has put together two very strong seasons in a row at ages 22 and 23. If you want to say he's had an inconsistent career because he wasn't a star in his age 20 and 21 seasons, that seems a bit harsh to me. I'd be surprised if he didn't have another strong year this season, barring injury, and he hasn't reached his prime yet.

As for Bradley, I don't know where you're getting that he was below replacement offensively three of the last four months. His only truly bad month offensively was August, and don't forget that he plays a Gold Glove-caliber center field. He's had two very good seasons in a row.

I think you're grasping at straws here. I hate to admit it as an Orioles fan, but the Red Sox have three excellent young players in their lineup (not to mention Benintendi, the #1 prospect in baseball) who don't figure to regress anytime soon.

Oh yeah. The Sox are in great shape. Their farm system is still churning out talent and they effectively have no real budget. It sucks having to share a division with them and the Yankees both.

About the only thing thezeroes implied that I'll agree with is that the Red Sox had an awful lot go right last year, and the law of averages says they might slow a bit in 2017. That said, I think they'll still win the division. I just don't expect them to be the juggernaut they were the first half of 2016.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Oh yeah. The Sox are in great shape. Their farm system is still churning out talent and they effectively have no real budget. It sucks having to share a division with them and the Yankees both.

About the only thing thezeroes implied that I'll agree with is that the Red Sox had an awful lot go right last year, and the law of averages says they might slow a bit in 2017. That said, I think they'll still win the division. I just don't expect them to be the juggernaut they were the first half of 2016.

They were better in the second half.