Trade Kim and replace him with Mancini

[DJHJR86]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

The same way pitchers and defenses adjusted to Kim in the 2nd half last year?

.353 OBP says otherwise.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Most of us realized you are too smart to actually have meant it.

I do agree with you that it remains to be seen whether Kim will maintain his 2016 OBP (.382) or slide to the level he was at in the second half (.353).     I just don't feel as strongly as you that it's likely to be the latter.    We'll see.

[bobmc]

44 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That may be true.  I think Kim was a little over his head last year.  But I'm not convinced Mancini is the former hitter, either.  And I'm not at all convinced Mancini can play a passable LF.

As CLB often misspelled, " B E L E I V E ! ".  

[DJHJR86]

Just now, RZNJ said:

.329 Average  .410 OBP  .454 SLG in the first half.

.275 Average  .353 OBP  .386 SLG in the 2nd half.

 

If that doesn't at least have you question if the league was catching up to him, then there's no sense discussing it with you.    The 2nd half numbers aren't terrible by any means.   However, when you factor in his defense, I think we can do better or at least try to do better.

Why are you making these comparisons 7 games into the season?!  League caught up to Kim or his production came back down to Earth.  Who knows?  I'm baffled why you don't think the same is possible for Mancini.  Mancini could conceivably go into an awful, extended slump at any time.  I'm not ready to anoint him yet.  Your exact quote, "the Orioles don't need him [Kim]" is ridiculous.  

[DJHJR86]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

I'm making theses  comparisons because someone started a thread about Kim and Mancini and we are discussing both players.   If that was my exact quote could you at least quote it and quote it in context?

I apologize, I thought you started the thread.  

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Joey got hurt. Bourn other than last year hasn't hit lefties well. At some point they will have to make a decision on Gentry but it is way too early for that. 

I am a little floored about the Mancini story. I get the fact he has hit at all his minor league stops and been productive with the Orioles. It is certainly conceivable that he is a starting corner OF player next year. It is great seeing someone from the system being productive. 

All that said let's slow down. In order to be an everyday player you need to hit RHP as well, not minor leaguers, big league pitchers. You also have to be pretty productive if you have a below average glove. Buck is doing is what Weaver and Altobelli did in the early 80's with the OF. When the rosters expanded in September last year and this year with the off days and starting pitcher issues they have been able to juggle the roster as well. You could carry a ton of bench players in the early 80's when teams didn't carry 12 pitchers. Jim Dwyer didn't get 500 at bats a year, he got 200-300. Ayala didn't get 500 at bats a year he had 100-200. Just because those players fit well in a limited role doesn't mean they were cut out to be everyday players. Mancini is facing favorable matchups and to his credit is getting the job done. You don't ditch a Kim to see if he can do that here when you are a contending team. 

Not sure if folks remember McLouth being great as a platoon bat vs. RHP.  Folks were lobbying hard to have him play everyday.  When Reimold went down and there weren't many other options, he played everyday, inlcuding against LHP.  Needless to say, his overall numbers dipped.  Sometimes players with limited roles are performing so well due to the limited role that makes the most of their strengths and protects their weaknesses.

[El Gordo]

Threads like these are such a joke. We hear people screaming all the time about how Homer Happy we are and how badly we need guy who can get on base and hit situationally . As soon as we get one, people want to trade him to make roon for another HR hitter. Even with his second half numers Kim would still be our best OBP guy.

[Moondoggie]

31 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I think you are misinformed on Mancini's minor league career.   He's not an all or nothing hitter.    Yes, contact is in question but you have a player who the scouting report says can hitting breaking pitches because his short swing and bat speed allow him to wait on the ball.   He also hits to all fields.   

Mancini may not be an outfielder but I doubt he's any slower than Kim.  He might actually be faster.

Here's what John Sickels wrote about Mancini in his Orioles Top 20 Prospects profile this spring:

Quote

Age 24, eighth round pick in 2013 from Notre Dame; hit .282/.357/.458 with 20 homers, 58 walks, 140 strikeouts in 546 at-bats between Double-A and Triple-A; went 5-for-14 with three homers in the majors; can have issues with contact but hammers mistake pitches and unafraid to work counts to find them; not a bad first baseman but limited to that position; upside: .270ish hitter with 20-25 homers in a full season; downside: contact problems drop him into the .230s with less consistent power. ETA 2017.

And here's what he concluded in his post-spring rookie profile on Mancini last week:

Quote

Mancini’s 2017 spring performance fits into his career narrative. The objective projection systems are in line with my winter take: Steamer projects him at .271/.323/.435, ZIPS at .263/.314/.436, PECOTA at .266/.316/.452. All are plausible, although personally I think we’ll see the increased Isolated Power projected by PECOTA.

Bottom line: Mancini isn’t Paul Goldschmidt, but he should be a useful player. He’s 25 years old, two or three years away from the classic power peak experienced by many similar players, which could push him into regular status somewhere.

And hitting minor league breaking balls does not translate into hitting major league breaking balls. There's a reason major league pitchers are major league pitchers -- secondary pitches. Whether he'll be able to hit them with any consistency in 2017 (or even beyond) remains to be seen.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

And it's silly to fall in love with one aspect of a player.   A .353 OBP or worse from a player with little power and poor defense is not good.   I'm not saying that Mancini, Rickard, Bourn, or some combination will automatically do better than Kim but it's possible.    To just pick one stat like OBP and say we have to have it and ignore everything else, is just silly.    IF Mancini can play the same type of defense as Kim, hit .280/.310/.500 and Kim puts up his 2nd half line of .275/.353/.386 you actually think Kim makes the team better?

To your point, Kim was worth -0.4 rWAR in the second half of last year.    

[OFFNY]

o

 

Kim's OBP last year was .382, not .353.

 

o

[Moondoggie]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

And here is what Baseball America said about him in this year's Handbook.

"Mancini's bat is solid and scouts believe he could hit at least 20 homers as a regular".

"He is a solid average hitter if not a tick above with a swing and bat path that help him keep his hands inside the ball, providing him with a chance to get to a good fastball but also stay on offspeed pitches."

 

 

So basically what you're saying is that Baseball America says pretty much what I've been saying all along that the scouts were projecting (someday) and what Sickels said in the thing I quoted above, which was:

Quote

upside: .270ish hitter with 20-25 homers in a full season; downside: contact problems drop him into the .230s with less consistent power.

Again, that's his projection. It's not set in stone (it could be better someday!). And it still doesn't make him an outfielder.

[OFFNY]

3 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

No one said otherwise.

 

 

 

You just did. Twice.

 

 

18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

And it's silly to fall in love with one aspect of a player.   A .353 OBP or worse from a player with little power and poor defense is not good.  I'm not saying that Mancini, Rickard, Bourn, or some combination will automatically do better than Kim but it's possible.    To just pick one stat like OBP and say we have to have it and ignore everything else, is just silly.    IF Mancini can play the same type of defense as Kim, hit .280/.310/.500 and Kim puts up his 2nd half line of .275/.353/.386 you actually think Kim makes the team better?

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

Thank you, but all anyone can see is the .353 OBP.

 

 

[El Gordo]

18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

And it's silly to fall in love with one aspect of a player.   A .353 OBP or worse from a player with little power and poor defense is not good.   I'm not saying that Mancini, Rickard, Bourn, or some combination will automatically do better than Kim but it's possible.    To just pick one stat like OBP and say we have to have it and ignore everything else, is just silly.    IF Mancini can play the same type of defense as Kim, hit .280/.310/.500 and Kim puts up his 2nd half line of .275/.353/.386 you actually think Kim makes the team better?

Yes because I don't think Mancini's defense will  be any better than Kim's and the club needs people on base more than they need HR.

[OFFNY]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

 

If you followed the conversation you would see that I was referencing his 2nd half numbers.   I've already posted his first half (.410) second half (.353) and his overall (.382) OBP numbers last year.

 

o

 

I followed the conversation.

By saying what you said without the proper context, your statements make it appear as though Kim had a .353 OBP for the season.

If you are going to cite numbers that are incomplete (partial season numbers), fine, but you need to continue to cite them in your posts when making your point. Not everybody reads all of the 100-plus posts that are in this (and many other) threads, so it is not correct to say things that are not true and simply assume that everybody knows what you are talking about.

 

o

 

[Moondoggie]

1 minute ago, RZNJ said:

Baseball America called him a solid average hitter maybe plus.   Not sure how you equate that with a .230 hitter but go ahead if you want to.

Can you read? It said .270ish (and I've said in many posts that he's projected to be a .260 to .270 hitter). That's solid average. The .230 was his downside if he has a lot of trouble with contact at the major league level.

And by the way, he struck out 123 times in 483 at bats at Norfolk last year, so I wouldn't exactly call him a contact hitter. 

And nowhere in what you quoted from Baseball America did it say anything about "plus." Even his power only grades at 55 by most scouts and that's above average, but not plus.