Do We Sell?

[sportsfan8703]

I could see us doing a mini rebuild:

Brach, Castillo, Seth Smith, Miley would be dealt.  

Tillman, Ubaldo, Kim and Hardy would just play out the year because nobody would take their salaries.  Or performance. haha.  

2018:

SP- Bundy, Gausman, ?, ?, ?

BP- Britton, Givens, O'day, Scott, Asher, Wright, Long

C- Sisco

1B- Davis

2B- Schoop

SS- Manny

3B- ?

LF- Mancini

CF- Jones

RF- Mullins

DH- Trumbo

Bench:

Joseph

Util IF- ?

Santander

Rickard

Wouldn't be that much different from this year's team.  It would give us room to re-sign Manny and would hopefully bring back some SP options and a young SS or 3B.  

[Ruzious]

If we do - foolishly imo - buy, who's a likely target?  I'll tell ya one.  Jaime Garcia.  He's 2-5 despite a 3.15ish ERA and has been a very consistent veteran lefty throughout his career.  Braves aren't going anywhere with him and are always looking for young talent.  If the O's can get a little closer to a wildcard, it wouldn't surprise me if they'd trade Mullens or Hays or Mountcastle for a guy like Garcia.  

[DirtyBird]

Just now, Ruzious said:

If we do - foolishly imo - buy, who's a likely target?  I'll tell ya one.  Jaime Garcia.  He's 2-5 despite a 3.15ish ERA and has been a very consistent veteran lefty throughout his career.  Braves aren't going anywhere with him and are always looking for young talent.  If the O's can get a little closer to a wildcard, it wouldn't surprise me if they'd trade Mullens or Hays or Mountcastle for a guy like Garcia.  

 

That would be historically stupid.

[esmd]

If we buy this year instead of sell.....wow.  To say the least, I'll be profoundly disappointed.  The clear route to them being a WS contender in the coming seasons is to sell....at least IMO.

[SteveA]

If I was in charge, I would look at July 5 as a key point in the buy/sell discussion.

We are playing awful, 9-20 in our last 29.   No doubt about it, the pitching has been pathetic, the hitting hasn't been good enough.   Don't need to tell anyone on this board how terrible it has been.

But saying that, it WAS a tough stretch.   We played the best team in baseball 3 times, the hottest team in baseball 6 times, the first place Nats twice, the first place Twins 3 times, and the team picked to win our division before the season 4 times.   And I simply don't believe the Yankee hitting can sustain what it is doing right now.   I have to believe we got them at the worst time, I don't think Gardner can continue his HR pace, I don't think Hicks can continue his OPS pace, I don't think Gregorius and Castro can continue playing as well.

Now in our next 23 games, we play 13 games against teams with losing records, and the other 10 against teams that are each just two games over .500.   And those happen to be the two teams that are each a half game ahead of us for the last wild card spot.

If we don't do well in that stretch...say 14-9 or better, I would think that the writing would be on the wall.   That would be proof to me that we aren't capable of competing this year.   And the 23 game run ends July 5, which is still plenty early to plan and execute a fire sale if that is the way to go.

If we do well in that stretch... we would likely at least be in position for a wild card (since 10 of the 23  games are against the teams that are just ahead of us for the WC, and several more are against Toronto who is a couple games behind us).   And we would probably be just getting Britton back.

So that's how I see it:

   -- 14-9 or better in that stretch and we are still in contention, and will have righted the ship somewhat after the horrible month, we would be at least 6 games over .500, almost certainly in wild card position, on pace for a 87 win season or better,and maybe even ahead of Boston for the #1 wild card as we are only 2 games back of them now

   -- 11-12 or worse in that stretch and we don't have a winning record, we would have just completed a fairly easy stretch of schedule and be moving into a tougher one, we would probably be at least a few games off the wild card.   Seems like the obvious decision is to go for a fire sale.  

   -- 12-11 or 13-10...those are the borderline cases.   We'd be over .500, probably a game up a game back or tied for the #2 wild card.   Would the "ship have been righted"?   Not really.  12 or 13 out of 23 vs a weak schedule is nothing to write home about.   At that point I would have to try to make some qualitative assessments.   How has the pitching had looked in the past 3 weeks?   Has Gausman improved?   Is O'Day back?   Is Britton close?   Have we found a semi-reliable guy or two from the Norfolk shuttle?   Which direction has Miley gone since June 12?   Has Tillman shown any signs of life or is he a lost cause?   Do we have any other key injuries?   Are we still one of the four best teams in MLB at home?    Based on the answer to those questions, I would make the decision to punt or not to punt.

So let's check back on July 5 and see what happened.

[I will note that even if we decide not to have a fire sale, I don't think we should be trading significant minor league assets for ANY rental type player.   No, I'm not going to be a fanatic about it (sorry CofC, if we trade this year's Jonah Heim for a bit player, or trade competitive balance money that we probably wouldn't use anyway,  I'll still sleep calmly at night).   But I don't want to see is trade anyone who is realistically one of our top 20 prospects unless we are getting someone who can be a positive under-team-control contributor beyond 2017].

[Yossarian]

The Orioles should entertain offers for anyone and everyone.  If they are going to sell, they need to go all in and sell.  This will be a painful, 5-year process to restore a weak farm system and re-build a team that can contend.  I say clean house, even managment.  This team needs new life and a new attitude - they are stagnant right now and that NYY series seemed to complete take the will to win out of them.  The O's owe it to Adam Jones to let him decide whether he wants to stick around through a re-building process or go play for a contender.  Other than that, everybody is on the trade block - even if it is for promising AA players.  I would much rather watch young guys that are hungry come in and play hard than watch the middle of the line-up (3-4-5 hitters) hit a combined 0.230 and strike out 6 times per game between the three of them.

[maybenxtyr]

It's going to be a tough year for selling. KC, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore should be open for business. That's not counting teams like Atlanta, San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland, Texas, and Miami that may have some available players. Definitely could be a buyers market.

[jjnono]

The only sound louder than the crack of the opposing team's bats is the sound of our window slamming shut.  The pitching isn't good enough and it isn't going to be.  That's been predicted for the last couple of years, but it's a reality right now.  Either you think it can get better, or you sell.  The hitting has also proven suspect, and I think we will rue the Davis contract for years to come.  There is NO point in signing Manny.  Time to retool, rebuild, whatever you want to call it.  But this team is flat out embarrassing right now, and I can't see it getting much better this season.

[Camden_yardbird]

9 hours ago, maybenxtyr said:

It's going to be a tough year for selling. KC, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore should be open for business. That's not counting teams like Atlanta, San Diego, San Francisco, Oakland, Texas, and Miami that may have some available players. Definitely could be a buyers market.

Pittsburgh leadership has said it won't be selling that much.  They envision this year as a down year.  That said, they tried to move Cutch and Harrison this offseason

[esmd]

On 6/11/2017 at 2:13 PM, TradeAngelos said:

And all you people advocating trading Manny will never get it. You trade all the garbage around him and pay him, because if he goes the entire organizational stability for the next 10 years goes right with him. Yeah that is a great plan, trade one of the best players on baseball who could be here for the next 10-12 years as the face of the franchise. Genius move right there.

Sorry friend, it's you that don't get it.  Manny will not be an Orioles in 2019.  Count on that.  And if we don't deal him and replentish the farm system, and allow him to leave as a FA and get nothing, then we will have lost the entire organizational stability that you referenced.  It will set this franchise back for a decade to let him leave as a FA.  You have to deal him. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, esmd said:

Sorry friend, it's you that don't get it.  Manny will not be an Orioles in 2019.  Count on that.  And if we don't deal him and replentish the farm system, and allow him to leave as a FA and get nothing, then we will have lost the entire organizational stability that you referenced.  It will set this franchise back for a decade to let him leave as a FA.  You have to deal him. 

Some folks think that throwing money at a player until he says yes is the way to go.  I mean if the O's offer enough at some point he says yes right?  And it isn't our money.

[TouchemAll]

15 hours ago, SteveA said:

If I was in charge, I would look at July 5 as a key point in the buy/sell discussion.

We are playing awful, 9-20 in our last 29.   No doubt about it, the pitching has been pathetic, the hitting hasn't been good enough.   Don't need to tell anyone on this board how terrible it has been.

But saying that, it WAS a tough stretch.   We played the best team in baseball 3 times, the hottest team in baseball 6 times, the first place Nats twice, the first place Twins 3 times, and the team picked to win our division before the season 4 times.   And I simply don't believe the Yankee hitting can sustain what it is doing right now.   I have to believe we got them at the worst time, I don't think Gardner can continue his HR pace, I don't think Hicks can continue his OPS pace, I don't think Gregorius and Castro can continue playing as well.

Now in our next 23 games, we play 13 games against teams with losing records, and the other 10 against teams that are each just two games over .500.   And those happen to be the two teams that are each a half game ahead of us for the last wild card spot.

If we don't do well in that stretch...say 14-9 or better, I would think that the writing would be on the wall.   That would be proof to me that we aren't capable of competing this year.   And the 23 game run ends July 5, which is still plenty early to plan and execute a fire sale if that is the way to go.

If we do well in that stretch... we would likely at least be in position for a wild card (since 10 of the 23  games are against the teams that are just ahead of us for the WC, and several more are against Toronto who is a couple games behind us).   And we would probably be just getting Britton back.

So that's how I see it:

   -- 14-9 or better in that stretch and we are still in contention, and will have righted the ship somewhat after the horrible month, we would be at least 6 games over .500, almost certainly in wild card position, on pace for a 87 win season or better,and maybe even ahead of Boston for the #1 wild card as we are only 2 games back of them now

   -- 11-12 or worse in that stretch and we don't have a winning record, we would have just completed a fairly easy stretch of schedule and be moving into a tougher one, we would probably be at least a few games off the wild card.   Seems like the obvious decision is to go for a fire sale.  

   -- 12-11 or 13-10...those are the borderline cases.   We'd be over .500, probably a game up a game back or tied for the #2 wild card.   Would the "ship have been righted"?   Not really.  12 or 13 out of 23 vs a weak schedule is nothing to write home about.   At that point I would have to try to make some qualitative assessments.   How has the pitching had looked in the past 3 weeks?   Has Gausman improved?   Is O'Day back?   Is Britton close?   Have we found a semi-reliable guy or two from the Norfolk shuttle?   Which direction has Miley gone since June 12?   Has Tillman shown any signs of life or is he a lost cause?   Do we have any other key injuries?   Are we still one of the four best teams in MLB at home?    Based on the answer to those questions, I would make the decision to punt or not to punt.

So let's check back on July 5 and see what happened.

[I will note that even if we decide not to have a fire sale, I don't think we should be trading significant minor league assets for ANY rental type player.   No, I'm not going to be a fanatic about it (sorry CofC, if we trade this year's Jonah Heim for a bit player, or trade competitive balance money that we probably wouldn't use anyway,  I'll still sleep calmly at night).   But I don't want to see is trade anyone who is realistically one of our top 20 prospects unless we are getting someone who can be a positive under-team-control contributor beyond 2017].

If we lose this Chicago series I have my punter standing right beside me.

[esmd]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Some folks think that throwing money at a player until he says yes is the way to go.  I mean if the O's offer enough at some point he says yes right?  And it isn't our money.

And doing that will set us back a decade, because for the entirely of the 10/350 (or higher) deal, they'll be handicapped by not being able to afford 24 other players to field a quality team.  It'll be A-Rod in Texas all over again.

[wildcard]

Before determining if the O's are sellers the O's have to determine if they can fix the starting pitching.  Everything else will follow that.

Bundy, Gausman  and for now Asher probably stay in the rotation.   McDowell's job is riding on him turning Gausman around.  

Miley is still in the rotation but he has to stop blowing games or he will  lose his rotation spot.  Tillman is pitching this Thursday to stay off the DL.

Candidates to start:  Bleier who has a history of success starting in the minors.   Wright who was pitching well in his last 5 starts at Norfolk and Long who is pitching well at AAA.  Long may be promoted to the majors to start or relieve.   Is it risky to jump him to the majors?  Yes but the O's have done  it before with Givens and Hart and there is a need so it might happen.

This happens to the O's almost annually.   Last year the O's replaced Wilson and Wright with Bundy and Miley in the rotation.  I don't think the O's give up trying.  They will see where they are around July 15th and make the decision to add or subtract at that point.

 

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Mike Wright sucks as a starter and he's having trouble even as a reliever.  Leave him in the bullpen and find out what you've got there.   I think we all know that rotation is not his future.

You want to throw stuff against the wall with Bleier and Long?   No problem.   They can't do any worse than the current crew but I wouldn't expect much.   Bleier was mediocre in AAA (4.06 ERA in 10 starts) at age 29.    Long has started a a total of 3  games at the AA level.    

Your ideas seem desperate but these are desperate times!

 

I don't see the O's giving up on Wright just yet.  He is similar  to Tillman at this point.   In Tillman 's first three years in the majors he was 7-15 with at 5.58 ERA.   Then he gave the O's years on good pitching as a starter.   

Wright is out of options  next year.   The O's probably try hard the rest of the year to see if he can stick.