Time to start talking the f word

[eddie83]

29 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Agreed, and you are correct in that instance - but on the whole, I think it's clear that they don't value draft picks the way that many (myself included) think they should.  Giving up a pick to sign Gallardo was just awful.

I look at things differently than some people. DD takes over after 2011. A solid core is in place. To his credit he added both Chen and Miguel Gonzalez. Two cheap but above average pitchers the Orioles had through 2015. Chen was good the whole time and Miguel was until mid 2015. In 2012 by the end of the year and in early 2013 both Chris Davis and Manny pop.

Hammel another good acquisition in 2012 isn't as good in 13, Chen has an oblique injury and Arrieta is awful. The core group of players is ready to win. Dan trades Arrieta and Strop for Feldman and Hader and a pick for 2.5 years of Norris. In 14 he adds Ubaldo and in 16 it is Gallardo. 

The entire time he has been here Dan has been chasing pitching. The fact is he hit early on with Chen and Gonzalez and has whiffed since. I have no issue giving up picks and prospects with a team that has a good core. The issue is Dan acquired the wrong guys. 

A couple of days ago I looked at the top 20 in pitching WAR in the NL and AL. There were 11 total pitchers who were with the team that drafted them. This idea that everyone but the Orioles is hitting on their pitching prospects is a bunch of nonsense. 

The top FA pitchers like Scherzer and Greinke are not coming here. The owner doesn't invest in the International market. Any GM here has very little margin for error in building a staff.

[24fps]

11 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Agreed, and you are correct in that instance - but on the whole, I think it's clear that they don't value draft picks the way that many (myself included) think they should.  Giving up a pick to sign Gallardo was just awful.

Draft picks and minor leaguers are valued differently (or ought to be) by teams that consider themselves contenders compared to teams that are moving in that direction but not yet there.  It's clear to me that the Orioles management, including ownership, decided that the core young team beginning sometime in 2012 deserved that consideration and changed strategy accordingly.

Personally, I think the whole notion of "windows" is suspect - too likely to become a self-fulfilling prophecy and I think it's likely we'll see an example of that with the Orioles fairly soon.  I find it more difficult to fault Duquette for adopting the philosophy that his job is to give the fans the best team possible and choosing to measure success season-by-season, which I think is the case here.  

I agree about the Gallardo signing, and the Parra trade was no prize either.  My main criticism of Duquette is always talking about the need for better starting pitching and ultimately doing little to address it.  That has been tempered by the fact that it's been at least three years since I've seen the phrase "once proud franchise" printed or spoken about the Orioles.  Worth a couple of draft pick to me any day.

[glenn__davis]

Just now, 24fps said:

Draft picks and minor leaguers are valued differently (or ought to be) by teams that consider themselves contenders compared to teams that are moving in that direction but not yet there.  It's clear to me that the Orioles management, including ownership, decided that the core young team beginning sometime in 2012 deserved that consideration and changed strategy accordingly.

Personally, I think the whole notion of "windows" is suspect - too likely to become a self-fulfilling prophecy and I think it's likely we'll see an example of that with the Orioles fairly soon.  I find it more difficult to fault Duquette for adopting the philosophy that his job is to give the fans the best team possible and choosing to measure success season-by-season, which I think is the case here.  

I agree about the Gallardo signing, and the Parra trade was no prize either.  My main criticism of Duquette is always talking about the need for better starting pitching and ultimately doing little to address it.  That has been tempered by the fact that it's been at least three years since I've seen the phrase "once proud franchise" printed or spoken about the Orioles.  Worth a couple of draft pick to me any day.

I agree with most of this as well.

Really, my point was just a rebuttal to John's post that the scouting department has been terrible.  I just don't believe that's the case.  Give them those 3-4 additional picks they surrendered, and this system probably looks better and deeper.  I think they've done a decent job with what they've been given.

[sportsfan8703]

4 hours ago, FlipTheBird said:

Part of the reason for that was that we also signed Cruz, who was paramount to the club's success that year. No one ever likes to mention that.

The only mistake with Cruz was not maximizing what we gave up and signing him LT.  Same with Miller.  

Instead we're locked into LT deals with Trumbo and O'day.  

DD made those deals and gave out those contracts.  This and signing Ubaldo/Gallardo, losing 1st rd picks for them. is why he should be fired.  

[spiritof66]

7 hours ago, JohnD said:

I don't know how to be more blunt: right now you can't argue the scouting department has done a terrible job of replenishing the farm system through the draft.  Lots of other teams find talent outside the top 5.  Why don't the Orioles?  Everyone in the minors who is playing well still have enormous question marks attached.  Maybe it's the minor league coaching, either way, whats happening right now should give everyone pause that this organization is capable of leading a rebuild that even I agree is probably coming due.

I think part of the explanation is the glaring deficiency, relative to other ML franchises, in Latin American scouting and signings. That, I believe without having studied it, is an important source of depth and undrafted nuggets for many organizations that find talent outside their high draft choices. (Some of this applies to Cuban players, but differently, and that's a very different sitauation.)

It's my understanding that the decision not to spend on Latin American infrastructure and signings is one of the factors that has enabled the Orioles to maintain a payroll that is disproportionately high relative to their revenues. To the extent that's true, that decision leads you to spend, relative to most other teams with comparable resources, more on a few high-priced veterans (you know who they are) and less on low-priced prospects to fill your farm system.

When you skimp on a source of young talent in this way, as the Orioles have, you are likely to have fewer backup options if some of those high-priced guys get hurt or don't perform well. When you couple that with the Orioles' apparent inability to develop ML-quality starters and position players, you have shallow depth.

You ask an important question. (It must be because I've asked it myself.) I would think a rebuild would bring maybe three or four very good, "can't-miss" prospects (who can miss, of course, as we've seen over and over), some or all of whom aren't ML-ready, and six to ten more who may turn out to be helpful. Even if the numbers can go a bit higher than that, will this organization be able turn that group, plus the Orioles' own minor leaguers and the next couple of year's draft picks, into a contender?

And if not, who can build an organization that can, and how?

 

[Frobby]

23 hours ago, JohnD said:

To a certain extent teams are always rebuilding and replenishing talent.  That's why there is a 50 round draft.  

Not anymore, there isn't.   It's been only 40 rounds for a few years now.   

But in any event, many contending teams trade away prospects for veterans or sign free agents that cost picks, and thus don't replenish their talent as well as other teams.    When you look at the O's, they've been a net exporter of young talent during Duquette's run, after being a net importer during MacPhail's.   

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Not anymore, there isn't.   It's been only 40 rounds for a few years now.   

But in any event, many contending teams trade away prospects for veterans or sign free agents that cost picks, and thus don't replenish their talent as well as other teams.    When you look at the O's, they've been a net exporter of young talent and picks during Duquette's run, after being a net importer during MacPhail's.     And, they haven't done that well with their picks, as has been well documented.

 

[sportsfan8703]

I think the Miguel Sano saga soured PA on spending in Latin America.  As far as resources, we don't know if Ownership views The Orioles and MASN all as one business enterprise.  

[FanSince88]

22 hours ago, 24fps said:

Perhaps Davis was looking at a rapidly aging owner with more money than good sense.

Yeah, Trumbo and Davis signed with us because we offered more money than anyone ever would have.  Full stop.  They're getting theirs whether we win or not.

[LookitsPuck]

If anybody thinks this team is a contender, they're delusional. This team is pre-2012 Orioles bad. It's the kind of bad that gets GMs fired mid-season.

[Cumberbundy]

Problem is DD, a fire sale relies on his judgement. It's really hard to build a team that loses as badly as this one has recently. We appear a long way from being competitive with money locked up in first basemen who can't hit and nothing on the mound now or in the future that isn't Bundy. Maybe we will give Ben Sheets or Rich Harden a try out. 

[Uli2001]

50 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

If anybody thinks this team is a contender, they're delusional. This team is pre-2012 Orioles bad. It's the kind of bad that gets GMs fired mid-season.

They are not as bad as they look right now (I am pretty sure their season-ending ERA will be below 10) but a turnaround big enough to put them in contention does seem far-fetched.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Cumberbundy said:

Problem is DD, a fire sale relies on his judgement. It's really hard to build a team that loses as badly as this one has recently. We appear a long way from being competitive with money locked up in first basemen who can't hit and nothing on the mound now or in the future that isn't Bundy. Maybe we will give Ben Sheets or Rich Harden a try out. 

In the event of a fire sale (unlikely) DD wouldn't be head arsonist.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, 24fps said:

In the event of a fire sale (unlikely) DD wouldn't be head arsonist.

I agree.  Realistically we're going to see this team ride it out till the end of the year and then try and make a few changes.  Almost like in 2013 and 2015.  This team isn't rebuilding unless DD is fired.  

[pastorfan]

12 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

If anybody thinks this team is a contender, they're delusional. This team is pre-2012 Orioles bad. It's the kind of bad that gets GMs fired mid-season.

Are the Blue Jays still hiring?