Collapse of the Rotation By the Numbers

[Uli2001]

Just now, TonySoprano said:

Gausman's "improvement" is 0.06 ERA (6.57 v 6.63), 1 less ER in 1 less IP.  He has 2 QS in 15 GS.  If you want to look for improvement in his game, his IP per start is up slightly, but that's a very generous observation.  The rest of your analysis about the pitching is correct.

I think you missed the sarcasm in the all caps...

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, TonySoprano said:

Tomorrow, I'm going to the pre-game Media Night and Duquette will be there.  I expect an interesting Q&A session with the fans about the last month and a half, although more punches will be pulled than you find on sports radio.  What would you ask him?
 

 

 

I can't remember where, but I saw a DD quote recently that really surprised me. He said something to the effect that Tillman and Gausman were projected to be the #1 and #2 and have not pitched as expected. I understand his point - if those guys perform to their norms, we would be in a much different situation. Still, I interpreted the quote as really throwing them under the bus and blaming the players for his decisions, at least to some extent.

[TonySoprano]

17 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I can't remember where, but I saw a DD quote recently that really surprised me. He said something to the effect that Tillman and Gausman were projected to be the #1 and #2 and have not pitched as expected. I understand his point - if those guys perform to their norms, we would be in a much different situation. Still, I interpreted the quote as really throwing them under the bus and blaming the players for his decisions, at least to some extent.

The Orioles have had a "grow the arms" philosophy that goes back at least to Beattie and Flanagan.   From 2014-16, Gausman had the potential to be the first pitcher that we drafted and developed since Mussina to be a success.  If anyone would have predicted that Gausman's 2017 ERA would go up 2.99 and Tillman's more than double with a 4.30 increase then raise your hand.  Now put it down.... liar.  Otherwise, please share what numbers to play the next Powerball. 

In 2014, with 3/5 of the rotation that we started with in 2017, they had an ERA of 3.61 (12th).  As I noted before, it went bad in 2015 and 2016 and has collapsed to date.  The 2017 staff is performing like the 2008-09 teams.

[Norfolk orioles]

2 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I'm just doubting that Duquette is interested in selling.  I don't think he will care what the O's organization looks like a day after he leaves. 

We need to sell Duquette first.

 

He's overseen a total collapse by trading away 1st round picks for the like of Ubaldo and Gallardo and making worse trades and FA signings.

 

No more excuses for him, we are in a collapse with no end in sight and the only way to prevent another "dark ages" scenario is to trade everyone.

 

Dan and Buck most likely have no interest in this so they need to go too.

 

Its for the good of the franchise that the really hard decisions must be made.

If Angelos refuses to do this because he wants to see a winner before he passes then it really will be his legacy that he was the worst thing to ever happen to Baltimore in franchise history.

[LookitsPuck]

1 hour ago, TonySoprano said:

The Orioles have had a "grow the arms" philosophy that goes back at least to Beattie and Flanagan.   From 2014-16, Gausman had the potential to be the first pitcher that we drafted and developed since Mussina to be a success.  If anyone would have predicted that Gausman's 2017 ERA would go up 2.99 and Tillman's more than double with a 4.30 increase then raise your hand.  Now put it down.... liar.  Otherwise, please share what numbers to play the next Powerball. 

In 2014, with 3/5 of the rotation that we started with in 2017, they had an ERA of 3.61 (12th).  As I noted before, it went bad in 2015 and 2016 and has collapsed to date.  The 2017 staff is performing like the 2008-09 teams.

Granted I don't think anybody thought Gausman would turn into a pumpkin, but quite a few people were worried about Tillman due to his injury. Which made it all the worse that Duquette did nothing but sign a bunch of AAAA talent.

[Norfolk orioles]

5 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Granted I don't think anybody thought Gausman would turn into a pumpkin, but quite a few people were worried about Tillman due to his injury. Which made it all the worse that Duquette did nothing but sign a bunch of AAAA talent.

Calling them AAAA talent may be giving this group of jokers too much credit.

[Going Underground]

I don't see a sell. Orioles can stay around for the second WC. I think Red Sox,Indians, Astros will win their divisions. Yankees as first WC. Then who knows. Twins pitching is bad and i think they will fade out. i think the second WC will be between the Rangers,Mariners,Rays,Jays and Orioles. None are that good. Jays may make a rush if they stay healthy. The Royals would be in the mix but they are supposed to sell off the guys who are close to free agency. 

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

Gausman's "improvement" is 0.06 ERA (6.57 v 6.63), 1 less ER in 1 less IP.  He has 2 QS in 15 GS.  If you want to look for improvement in his game, his IP per start is up slightly, but that's a very generous observation.  The rest of your analysis about the pitching is correct.

Even the IP per start  improvement is a mirage if you account for the fact that Gausman was ejected after 1.0 innings in the Boston game.    Omit that game and his IP/start are identical.    

[wildcard]

You guys give up too easy. 

O's may be putting together a solid pen.  That has been the backbone of the team for years.   If a starter goes 5 innings and gives up 3 runs that is a 5.40 ERA.   But if the pen shuts them down and the offense scores  4 or 5, that is a win.

It has been the O's formula for a while.

I am watching Aquino and Long to see if they can help.

 

[interloper]

44 minutes ago, wildcard said:

You guys give up too easy. 

O's may be putting together a solid pen.  That has been the backbone of the team for years.   If a starter goes 5 innings and gives up 3 runs that is a 5.40 ERA.   But if the pen shuts them down and the offense scores  4 or 5, that is a win.

It has been the O's formula for a while.

I am watching Aquino and Long to see if they can help.

 

The O's have given up 5 or more runs in 10 straight games. A record that has not been set for over 100 years. It's time to give up.

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

The O's have given up 5 or more runs in 10 straight games. A record that has not been set for over 100 years. It's time to give up.

Actually they have given up 5 or more runs in 16 straight games.  And they are still only 5 games out of first on June 20th.  There is a lot of baseball yet to be played.   

[interloper]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Actually they have given up 5 or more runs in 16 straight games.  And they are still only 5 games out of first on June 20th.  There is a lot of baseball yet to be played.   

Ah, you are correct, my bad. There's a lot left to be played, but basically zero reason to believe the rotation will suddenly improve. Especially with Bundy clearly out of gas and his fly balls turning into home runs. 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

Ah, you are correct, my bad. There's a lot left to be played, but basically zero reason to believe the rotation will suddenly improve. Especially with Bundy clearly out of gas and his fly balls turning into home runs. 

I believe the rotation will probably improve, for the simple reason that it's practically impossible to do worse than they've done over the last five weeks.    Whether they'll improve enough to matter remains to be seen.    But I just don't see the point in going into full doom and gloom mode when the team is still close to the playoff cutoff line, no matter what the recent trend is.    They have a month to right the ship, and maybe they will.    I don't really like their chances, but I've seen too many drastic changes of fortune for teams over the years to make any assumptions.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I believe the rotation will probably improve, for the simple reason that it's practically impossible to do worse than they've done over the last five weeks.    Whether they'll improve enough to matter remains to be seen.    But I just don't see the point in going into full doom and gloom mode when the team is still close to the playoff cutoff line, no matter what the recent trend is.    They have a month to right the ship, and maybe they will.    I don't really like their chances, but I've seen too many drastic changes of fortune for teams over the years to make any assumptions.

When Dan is telling other teams he's buying, it's time for full doom and gloom mode.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

When Dan is telling other teams he's buying, it's time for full doom and gloom mode.

See my comment in your other thread about the O's being buyers.