Rosenthal: Orioles Uequivocally Plan to be Buyers

[weams]

86 years old. Buy Sell? Happy July Fourth.  

[weams]

9 minutes ago, SteveA said:

And it's by a guy who is known to hate Angelos.

If he can write an article with some innuendo (i.e. "it's obvious the Orioles should sell but rumor has it Angelos wants them to be buyers"), he will write that article based on the thinnest whisp of talk from a one of his "sources".

I'm sticking by what I wrote the day after the Yankee series.   We were beginning a 23 game stretch vs teams that were under .500 or just barely above it, including teams that were in tight contention for us for the wild card spots.   That stretch ends July 5.

I said if we went 14-9 or better...  stay the course.   That would put us a decent bit over .500 and probably in the 2nd wild card spot.   Britton would be close to coming back.   We would be contenders, for better or worse.

I said if we went 11-10 or worse... it was time to start thinking about selling.   We would be .500 or worse and trailing a lot of teams for the wild card, and we would have just played a 23 game stretch vs mediocre competition and not showed we could make much noise.

The middle ground was 12-11 or 13-10.   A tough call.   I said in that case I would look at subjective indicators.   Were guys like Gausman and Manny turning around their seasons in ways we would hope?   Have we found someone from the Norfolk shuttle to stabilize the #5 starter and/or long relief spots.   Is it looking like Britton will be back really soon?   Etc.

Well, so far we are 3-5.   I'm going to stick it out and wait until July 5 to evaluate, like I said I would.   But so far it's not looking pretty.

I also think that you don't have to create a dichotomy between every deal being "buying" or "selling" and judge the deals accordingly, or create some sort of narrative that you have to sell every possible asset or you are somehow faililng.    If we trade Britton for Joe Ross, I guess that is a "selling" deal because we are trading a veteran star reliever for a young, somewhat unproven starting pitcher.   But that deal might actually IMPROVE the 2017 Orioles.   If we trade Manny for Bregman and two more top prospects, obviously that's a sell, but how much of a dropoff would it be to put Bregman (.725 OPS this year) in for Manny (.706 this year) into the lineup?

July 5th! The day after his birthday!

[El Gordo]

Things should be clear after the ASB. Not much to sell really except for Manny and Brach. Would we get more for them at the TD or off season?

[jtschrei]

No surprise here. Dan and Buck are here for 1 more year. The clock is ticking on Machado. The clock is ticking on Jones. It's now or never with this core. I'm surprised we haven't made a trade already. Other teams are waiting longer to become sellers with the second wild-card. As long as you're around .500, you can be a buyer. 

 

[FlipTheBird]

2 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

I take this report more at face value than posturing, and think those hoping for a sell are wishcasting.

For better or worse, we are in on this core, and we are not far from the Feldman calendar date.  Moreover, we desperately need Feldman type rotation fodder, and a few extra starts of "anyone but who we've been pitching lately" could be significant in the messy scrum to ~85 wins and a road date at Fenway or Yankee Stadium in early October.

Fangraphs surveyed the market yesterday and identified nine teams likely open to selling now.  Their Feldmans:

OAK - Gray is too good for us

MIA - Volquez feels like our style, Koehler has one arb year to go

PIT - Cole is too good, Nova is too new, everyone else is too young

SF - Cueto has some poison pills for his acquirer, might give us a chance to shock the world.  Moore probably more our type.

ATL - Dickey and Colon could easily be moved aside

CWS - Big Game James is back.  Derek Holland is making good on his make good contract and might have a little more value than the White Sox figured he would.

CIN - their Feldman is, literally, Scott Feldman.  He has gravitas in our clubhouse.

SD - Richard and Chacin are on twin 1 year, $1.75M contracts so the price couldn't be any more nice.

PHI - Hellickson should have virtually zero acquisition cost talent wise as the Phillies foolishly QO'd him, as long as his acquirer has the payroll room to fit.

Of all the teams in the scrum, the Orioles probably have the intensest short term need, and the expiring Manny window.  It's fluff too, but as beaten down as they've been the past month, an early move probably helps the team's psyche.  I believe Duquette will execute something in the next week or two if he can, just as in past offseasons he's snagged Trumbo early to avoid a Davis barrel (not that we avoided it) and Castillo early to avoid a Wieters one.

I'm not saying the Orioles should try to acquire any of these guys, but I feel like the valuations are kind of off.

Gerrit Cole is in a league of his own (at least within the realm of this list) because of his age and upside.

Johnny Cueto is likewise kind of off on his own, because he does have a very strong track record.

Everyone else is just meat for the grinder. Sonny Gray's value has plummeted. Dickey and Colon shouldn't even be pitching in the NL. And so on.

[FlipTheBird]

5 hours ago, pastorfan said:

The starting pitching is woeful. There simply is no chance with such starting pitching.....but I think you need to field offers and trade guys in close proximity. I say this because if you trade off a piece now, then it becomes obvious you are sellers and it may hurt your bargaining with other teams. Best case scenario, Zach returns better than ever and Manny gets red-hot. Of course, then we would probably be winning just enough to keep them from trading.

So you want to take bad contracts off the books and replace them with more bad contracts.

[webbrick2010]

What are they going to buy?

They need 5 starting pitchers... good luck with that

[SomethingMagicHappens]

If?  When?   Britton & O'Day come back, the pen can get back to some semblance of reliable.  At that point, we have Brach, O'Day, Britton for 7-8-9.  If a starter can go 6, I like our chances against anyone.  If they go 5, we have to roll the dice on someone to get 3 outs without VidalNuno-ing it.  

Are the starters putting too much pressure on themselves, feeling like they have to be perfect, b/c the pen is a mess?  What psychological impact will a strong pen have on the starters.  Half of the game is 90% mental......

 

[Ohfan67]

5 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Oh they will learn.  Unfortunately the fan base will be paying part of the price for the lesson.

I think they know exactly what they are doing...it's just that the owner, GM, and manager really don't care about three years from now because of their own situations and expectations of the future (or lack there-of for Angelos...not trying to be morbid, but he's ancient). 

[Ohfan67]

11 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

What are they going to buy?

They need 5 starting pitchers... good luck with that

And what are they going to use to get players? They have so, so few trade chips in the minors. I think the best they could get back is a Miley-Norris kind of pitcher with a small chance of moving the needle. Maybe Gausman for an expensive pitcher headed to FA but that would be incredibly expensive for the O's. I hope the front office is just talking and maybe even hoping that the team hears these things so they won't give up on the season (and maybe hoping fans won't totally give up either?).  

[Can_of_corn]

Don't they know it is only June?  You can't be buying and selling in June!

[webbrick2010]

We'd be really stupid (really DD) if we weren't talking with the Nationals about moving Givens, Brach, and/or Britton

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

We'd be really stupid (really DD) if we weren't talking with the Nationals about moving Givens, Brach, and/or Britton

Be prepared for it to happen.  The O's won't commit to a sell off and the Nats (the contender in most need of help) doesn't have any reason to wait on them.

[Finisher]

Could totally see us trading for RA Dickey and acting like we fixed our pitching problems.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Finisher said:

Could totally see us trading for RA Dickey and acting like we fixed our pitching problems.

I'm sure Colon is available.  Maybe Rich Hill.