Building the 2018 team

[esmd]

They've got to trade Manny if they want to compete in the next 2-3 years.  Otherwise we'll see a similar team next year to what we see now, and then we lose him for nothing as a FA, which will be crippling.

[Ohfan67]

As many have pointed out in other threads, the Orioles have some serious cash coming off the books next year. If they have the same amount of cash to spend next year, then they could shock folks and sign a good starting pitcher (and yes, it would be a shock  ). A shock...but very possible. 

[wildcard]

The first question is who is managing the team?    Buck will be extended for 3 years this off season as manager.    I am not sure if Dan is extended but he will be with the O's at least through October of 2018 because Peter does not let managers out of contracts.   Whether McDowell is back will depend on whether Gausman has a good 2nd half.

 

1B - Davis 23m

2B - Schoop - 8m  = 31m

SS - Hardy or some other no hit SS.   - 6m = 37m.   O's do not pick up Hardy's option, let him go FA, check the market for someone better but may come back to Hardy

3B - Manny - 2018 salary 20m = 57m.  Everyday he slumps his  price drops.   There is no more talk of a 400m contract now.  Its as fallen to 10/300m and it could drop further.  Oh he will get paid but now the amount may be in the O's range.  Extended 10/300m with an 5m year opt out.  O's make an exception for Manny.

C - Joseph - 3M = 60m

DH - Trumbo - 12.5m = 72.5m

LF - Mancini - .545m = 73,045m

CF - Hays - .535m = 73.58m   O's need the speed.  They need to move Jones out for center where he dives and injuries himself too much.   2018 is the last year of his contract.   They need to see if a less stressful position and more rest can boost his 724-746 OPS.

RF - Jones - 17m = 90.58m

BC - Sisco or Wynns .535m   = 91.135m    Sisco if he improves his throwing.  If he doesn't it will be Wynns.   Sisco can not control the running game in the majors with what he has shown so far.  Wynn is a defense first catcher that can hit some.

OF - Mullins - .535m - 91.67m    Mullins will provide speed, defensive, baselrunning,  the ability to rest Jones in right and keep the O's from needing to play Hays too much in his rookie year.  He keeps Trumbo out of the outfield. Rickard  optioned to AAA.

UIF -  ?   -1m  +  92.67 Flaherty may not be bad next year.  He will go FA,  O's will look around.   Someone who can play SS.

UIF - Wilkerson - .535m  =  93. 205m  With Mancini, Hays, Jones and Mullins in the outfield and Trumbo who can play there if needed the O's will carry a 2nd UIF.

SP1 Bundy -  1.8m  =  95.005M   O's will carefully give Bundy inning this year to get him to about  160-170.   He will be stronger next year and be able to keep his command better with more arm strength.

SP2 Gausman - 6m = 101.005m.   Gausman has a good 2nd half.

SP3  O's will go to Japan or Korea for a SP - 6m = 107.005m

SP4  Young starter that O's get in the Britton trade. .535m  = 107.54m

SP5 Tillman or Aquino.   1m = 108.54m O's let Tillman go FA were there will be no demand for a SP with an 8.00 ERA.   But O's will not give up on him.   He is only 30.  They will rehab him this winter.  Sign him to a 1m contract  with incentive for 5, 10, 15  etc starts.  That way they can cut him at any time or send him the minors if he pitches poorly by DFAing him.   If he make all incentive he will make 6m. We will see if Aquino is a 5th starter the 2nd half.

Note Dan will add 5 AAA SP pitchers this off season hoping that one becomes major leaguer.  

RP1 Brach 6m = 114.54m   O's extend Brach this off season.  3/25

RP2 O'Day 9m = 123.54m

RP3  Givens .56m = 124.1m

RP4 Hart  .55m = 124.65m

RP5 Castro  .54m = 125.19m

RP6  Bleier .54m = 125.73m

RP7 Long .535m = 126.265m Long man and spot starter

O's trade Britton for two high round starters including one that will be ready for the majors next year plus two other players.  Castillo is also traded.  

Jimenez, Miley, Smith, Kim. Tejada. Jansh all go FA and do not return.

Verrett, Wright, Wilson, Nuno, Ynoa are all out of options and gone next year

Crichton, Yacabonis, Asher, Lee, and Faulkner have options and stay.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

As many have pointed out in other threads, the Orioles have some serious cash coming off the books next year. If they have the same amount of cash to spend next year, then they could shock folks and sign a good starting pitcher (and yes, it would be a shock  ). A shock...but very possible. 

Problem is, they need three starting pitchers.    

[Frobby]

I don't think the O's should plan on either Hays or Mullins in the OF next year.     I'm not a big fan of skipping AAA, especially since neither player will have a full year of AA under his belt.     Now, that doesn't mean they can't come to spring training and win a job.   I'm just saying that shouldn't be Plan A.

[Ohfan67]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Problem is, they need three starting pitchers.    

They could sign two good starting pitchers if they used rookies to replace the departing outfielders and a cheap option for SS. I don't think they will sign say Darvish and a second good pitcher, but they could make the money work if they really wanted to focus on starting pitching. Two good starters would make a world of difference. I'm not saying this is likely to happen or even advocating it, but there may be significant salary available to DD or whoever is running the show this offseason. Enough money to move the needle a bit if you they really wanted to do it. 

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don't think the O's should plan on either Hays or Mullins in the OF next year.     I'm not a big fan of skipping AAA, especially since neither player will have a full year of AA under his belt.     Now, that doesn't mean they can't come to spring training and win a job.   I'm just saying that shouldn't be Plan A.

Why would the O's send a young hitter to play in Harbor Park?  Its demoralizing.  In most cases just makes the hitter form bad habits to overcome the elements in Harbor Park.    Skipping AAA is the best option for Hays,  Mullins.and Wynns    Buck has recently said that the gap in talent between AA and AAA has narrowed.   I would have all three players in the majors this September to get their feet wet.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

They could sign two good starting pitchers if they used rookies to replace the departing outfielders and a cheap option for SS. I don't think they will sign say Darvish and a second good pitcher, but they could make the money work if they really wanted to focus on starting pitching. Two good starters would make a world of difference. I'm not saying this is likely to happen or even advocating it, but there may be significant salary available to DD or whoever is running the show this offseason. Enough money to move the needle a bit if you they really wanted to do it. 

FA starting pitchers do not sign to play in Camden Yards.   Good ones do not have to and the O's will not overpay to entice them.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Why would the O's send a young hitter to play in Harbor Park?  Its demoralizing.  In most cases just makes the hitter form bad habits to overcome the elements in Harbor Park.    Skipping AAA is the best option for Hays,  Mullins.and Wynns    Buck has recently said that the gap in talent between AA and AAA has narrowed.   I would have all three players in the majors this September to get their feet wet.

I personally feel the players become better by facing the challenge of Harbor Park, and they learn from facing pitchers who are better and more experienced than in AA.      Just look at Mancini -- his stats suffered in Norfolk, but when he got to Baltimore, he was ready.    

[Orioles0615]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Starting Pitching: (My Arbitration predictions)

1. Bundy

2. Gausman (5 million)

3. ?????????? (Aquino)-out of options, has to be on MLB roster all next year or DFA

4.  ????????? (Ynoa)-out of options, has to be on MLB roster all next year or DFA

5.  ????????? (Wright-)out of options, has to be on MLB roster all next year or DFA

This is what the rest of the season should be about to me.  We need to go to a 6 man rotation, open things up competition wise, rest Bundy, and try and find at least one SP for next year.  

Total- 7 million

Bullpen:

1.  Britton (14 million)

2.  Brach (5 million)

3.  Givens

4.  O'day- 9 million

5.  Castro-out of options, has to be on MLB roster all next year or DFA

6.  Bleier

7.  Asher- but could be a guy that will be out of options.  Wilson, Wright, Ynoa, Aquino, Verrett, Nuno.

Total- 30 million

The bullpen is pretty set and should be near the top of the league.  The recipe to win is there.  We just need to score some runs and get some some decent SP.  We have the pen to shorten the game.  Especially with guys like Scott, Long and Liranzo in the mix.  

Lineup

C: Joseph (1.2 million)

1B: Davis 23 million

2B: Schoop (6 million)

3B: Machado (16 million)

SS: ???????????

LF: Mancini

CF: Jones 17.33 million

RF: ?????????? (Hays, Mullins)

DH: Trumbo 12.5 million

Total- 77 million

We need to find a SS or 3B.  I think Hays and Mullins could battle it out in ST for RF.  Probably a vet in the mix too.  We can't get rid of Trumbo or Davis, so Mancini is the LF.  

Bench:

C: Pena

RH OF: Rickard

Util: ?????????

5th OF: Santander

Total- 2 million

Not much of a bench, but when do we ever have one?  It's looking like Santander is going to have to fulfill at least part of his rule 5 obligations next season.  That might be something we want to get out of the way this year with the season in the tank.  

Total Payroll- 116 million 

So we're looking at 116 with still needing 3 SP's, SS/3B, and a COF.  See how this gets expensive.  The rest of the season needs to be sorting through the arms and trying to find a SP out of 6 guys that don't have options next year.  

I would bet Tillman is brought back on a prove it deal 

[Ohfan67]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

FA starting pitchers do not sign to play in Camden Yards.   Good ones do not have to and the O's will not overpay to entice them.

I don't disagree with your statement, I was just saying that the O's will have some cash and could move the needle if whoever called the shots decided to do it. The idea that the O's will invest in high priced starters is about as realistic as most of the other ideas to immediately improve the team.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

As many have pointed out in other threads, the Orioles have some serious cash coming off the books next year. If they have the same amount of cash to spend next year, then they could shock folks and sign a good starting pitcher (and yes, it would be a shock  ). A shock...but very possible. 

So who are they going to sign? Arrieta and Darvish  will be the top names on the market in the offseason. Cueto and Tanaka have opt out clauses so they "might" be a possibility and then you drop down to the Pineda, Cobb, Hellickson, Ross, Lackey, Liriano tier. 

[wildcard]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I personally feel the players become better by facing the challenge of Harbor Park, and they learn from facing pitchers who are better and more experienced than in AA.      Just look at Mancini -- his stats suffered in Norfolk, but when he got to Baltimore, he was ready.    

For all we know Mancini was ready when he was finished playing at AA.

[wildcard]

30 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

I don't disagree with your statement, I was just saying that the O's will have some cash and could move the needle if whoever called the shots decided to do it. The idea that the O's will invest in high priced starters is about as realistic as most of the other ideas to immediately improve the team.

Its history.  Name a good FA starter the O's have signed.

[panick]

16 hours ago, eddie83 said:

You certainly can fill some holes even if they aren't ready.  

They had to have some plan in place for next year. They knew 3 starters were FA's.  

I don' think Duquette has ever had a plan for a future year. He's about winning now, and that's why he has traded away Rodriguez and Davies. That in turn has led him to sign mediocre(at best) pitchers that have cost draft choices, and go through with his annual dumpster diving signings.

Since he is most likely at the end of his tenure with the O's, I don't think he really cares about the future with the team.

I think there should be a total rebuild started, which involves trading Jones, Machado, Britton and Brach, hopefully before this year's trading deadline. While I have no confidence that Duquette could maximize the return for those players, it's more likely that any return would be better this year rather waiting until the offseason or next year's deadline.

It seems like the recommendations in this thread have been about getting the team good enough for a wild-card slot next year. So what about the years after that????