The 95-game mark, 2013, 2015 and 2017

[Frobby]

Just thought it might be interesting to compare this team's situation with the last two times we missed the playoffs.

2017: 46-49, 3.5 games out of the 2nd wild card, 4 teams we'd have to pass, one team tied with us.

2015: 46-49, 5.5 games out of the 2nd wild card, 4 teams we'd have to pass, one team tied with us.

2013: 52-43, 2 games out of the wild card, 1 team we'd have to pass.

The 95-game mark came much earlier on the calendar in 2013 -- July 13, before the all-star break and 18 days before the trade deadline.      It came later in 2015, on July 24, only a week before the deadline     

In 2015, when we had the exact same record as now, the team won 5 of its next 6 games, prompting Duquette to make the deadline deal for Parra.    As of the deadline, the team was 51-50, 2 games out of the 2nd wild card, and only needing to pass one team.

So, for those people who are worried that the O's will go on a winning streak that may give the team false hope, there's certainly precedent in that 2015 season.    By the way, for anyone who forgot: the 2015 team had clawed its way back into 2nd wild card position as of August 17, at 61-56.   They were at 62-57 as of August 19, half a game behind the Angels for the 2nd wild card when the Twins came into town.   The Twins were reeling at the time, 9-19 in their last 28 games and coming off being swept by the Yankees.    They swept us 4 straight, we lost 12 of 13 games, and the season was effectively over.

Baseball's an unpredictable game.

[sportsfan8703]

Good post. Thanks for the perspective. 

We really don't like odd numbered years. Look at how baseball has changed. We had to trade Davies to get Parra. The Diamondbacks gave up less to get JD Martinez. Nobody, as far as I've seen, has dealt a 22-23 yr old SP that was having a big AAA season. 

[Aristotelian]

Thanks Frobby, I was going to look up the situation at this time 2015. This team feels a lot like that team. I definitely do not see trading Manny at this point, and the odds of moving Britton/Brach seem to be declining by the day. They could still get return for those players in August or the offseason if a playoff run doesn't work out. But they went for it (sort of) in 2015. I am inclined to think they will do so again, although they could still trade the most expendable pieces, namely Smith. 

[Frobby]

There are two big differences between this team and 2015's, cutting in opposite directions:

1.    In 2015, the schedule we had played through 95 games was much easier compared to the 67 games we had in front of us.   Tony made that point vehemently in arguing against the Parra deal, and he was right.    But this year, the remaining schedule is arguably easier over the final 67 games than it has been to date.

2.    On the other hand, we have many key players who (1) are two years older than in 2015, and past their prime in varying degrees, and/or (2) will be free agents this year or next, and will lose trade value if we continue to hold on to them.    That was much less of a concern in 2015.

[LookitsPuck]

And just like in 2015, Parra is on fire. lol

[Spy Fox]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There are two big differences between this team and 2015's, cutting in opposite directions:

1.    In 2015, the schedule we had played through 95 games was much easier compared to the 67 games we had in front of us.   Tony made that point vehemently in arguing against the Parra deal, and he was right.    But this year, the remaining schedule is arguably easier over the final 67 games than it has been to date.

2.    On the other hand, we have many key players who (1) are two years older than in 2015, and past their prime in varying degrees, and/or (2) will be free agents this year or next, and will lose trade value if we continue to hold on to them.    That was much less of a concern in 2015.

This 2017 team also has more of a fatal, glaring weakness than that 2015 team did-- the starting rotation. 

When they were 46-49 in 2015 they had Chen at a 2.86 ERA (!), Jimenez at a 3.81 ERA (!), and Gonzalez doing serviceably at 4.21. Tillman was at struggling 4.71, Norris had been removed from the rotation after a very bad first half, and Guasman had just reentered the rotation in late June. So it wasn't a terrific SP situation, but it was a whole lot better than they've got right now with one starter over 5.50, another over 6.00, and two more over 7.00.

But, all four of Chen, Jimenez, Tillman, and Gonzalez performed worse that year from Game 96 on than they had before. (Chen 4.08, Jimenez 4.52, Tillman 5.43, and Gonzalez 6.41.) So if a couple of our struggling SPs manage to pitch well in August and September, maybe we can reverse that 2015 trend and not suffer the same fate. It's possible but they've all looked so bad so often this year that I'll believe it when I see it.

[Aristotelian]

37 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There are two big differences between this team and 2015's, cutting in opposite directions:

1.    In 2015, the schedule we had played through 95 games was much easier compared to the 67 games we had in front of us.   Tony made that point vehemently in arguing against the Parra deal, and he was right.    But this year, the remaining schedule is arguably easier over the final 67 games than it has been to date.

2.    On the other hand, we have many key players who (1) are two years older than in 2015, and past their prime in varying degrees, and/or (2) will be free agents this year or next, and will lose trade value if we continue to hold on to them.    That was much less of a concern in 2015.

But Schoop, Manny, and Gausman are in their peak years (although only Schoop is performing like it). Objectively, the team is just as good (but also just as bad) as 2015 with about the same chance to make the playoffs. The people who wanted to sell in 2015 were probably right but the organization did not see it that way.

[webbrick2010]

The Rangers are a very bad team, I hope the Astros convince the FO that we are out of it.

Even if we lose 3 games by 30-3, I still see the FO only making fringe moves and starting to hype keeping the core together in 2018 for one more run. Hey 2018 is an even year!