6 ways the O's are likely to pursue the 4 starting pitchers they need

[wildbillhiccup]

16 minutes ago, 24fps said:

I'd be fine with them moving a Machado-type for a couple of good young pitchers in return.  

I think trading Machado is a completely different conversation. If the commit to making that move that should take the best deal they can get, regardless of whether it's hitting or pitching prospects. 

[esmd]

1 hour ago, 24fps said:

I'd be fine with them moving a Machado-type for a couple of good young pitchers in return.  

I wanted them to do this at the deadline last year and try and get 4-5 prospects back, including a couple of pitching prospects.  Now we'll watch him leave as a FA for virtually nothing.  Maybe if we're hopelessly out of it they move him in late July, but my guess is they'll be close enough to convince themselves to keep him and go for it.  Just a piss poor use of his value, IMO, but the ship has seemingly sailed.

[24fps]

2 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I think trading Machado is a completely different conversation. If the commit to making that move that should take the best deal they can get, regardless of whether it's hitting or pitching prospects. 

The Orioles' most compelling need is for starting pitching and I don't believe that can be fully resolved through trading organizational assets and spending in Free Agency.  Heck, we're already hearing Tillman and Miley from DD and the World Series isn't even over.  Talk about managing expectations....

All the ramifications of trading Manny this offseason probably is a topic larger than this thread, but it is very much relevant to this conversation too.  It's time to get real about what it's going to take for the O's to fix things to the degree necessary.

[wildcard]

9 hours ago, Lucky_13 said:

Looks like they might be going this route. Tillman more likely apparently...Great

MLBTR points out something that is disturbing.

"MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko has recently reported that Miley would prefer a return to the National League, and Encina implies as much as well, calling a reunion with Tillman more likely than one with Miley. That said, it still strikes me as perhaps unlikely that Tillman would return on a deal with a “low base salary,” as Encina hears the Orioles have suggested. Though Tillman’s 2017 results were unsightly, last winter’s market saw names like Derek Holland and Tyson Ross — the latter of whom made just one appearance in 2016 — sign for $6MM bases"

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/orioles-rumors-chris-tillman-wade-miley-resign.html

If the O's have to give Tillman a 6m base to sign him that would cause some long hard thinking.  The O's know Tillman physical  condition and may know what he has to do be get back to his former self.  But from the outside looking in neither Ross nor Holland was worth 6m last year.   Tillman's risk is probably that high.

 

[Why Not?]

Time to do something funky like Bill James' 3-3-3 rotation or a platoon system. 

Duquette has been skillful in finding bullpen arms in trades and off the scrap heap.  Commit to that strength. Each guy gets a trip through the lineup before you call in a fresh arm. Screw it, can't be any worse than 2017's staff. Viva La Revolucion!!

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Why Not? said:

Time to do something funky like Bill James' 3-3-3 rotation or a platoon system. 

Duquette has been skillful in finding bullpen arms in trades and off the scrap heap.  Commit to that strength. Each guy gets a trip through the lineup before you call in a fresh arm. Screw it, can't be any worse than 2017's staff. Viva La Revolucion!!

Duquette needs to work some magic like he did in 2012.  Are there any Wei Yin Chen like pitchers ready to come over to MLB from Japan or South Korea?  Castro needs every chance possible to earn a starting rotation spot.  Find one more pitcher and you have your 5 man rotation.  

Then find someone (can be within the organization) who will be the emergency spot starter/long man.

This is going to be no easy task and if DD succeeds he'll deserve the 2018 GM of the year award.  

[weams]

 

[Frobby]

Let me fix Tanaka’s statement:

”I have decided to stay with the Yankees for the next three seasons.   It was a simple decision for me as I have an elbow ligament that’s hanging by a thread and don’t want to risk that I couldn’t pass a physical if I opted for free agency.    At least this way I know I’ll make $67.5 mm the next three years even if I spend half that time recuperating from TJ surgery and am not that good when I return.”

[mdbdotcom]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let me fix Tanaka’s statement:

”I have decided to stay with the Yankees for the next three seasons.   It was a simple decision for me as I have an elbow ligament that’s hanging by a thread and don’t want to risk that I couldn’t pass a physical if I opted for free agency.    At least this way I know I’ll make $67.5 mm the next three years even if I spend half that time recuperating from TJ surgery and am not that good when I return.”

That seems fair enough. He made the right decision!

[Tx Oriole]

On 10/30/2017 at 3:33 PM, esmd said:

I wanted them to do this at the deadline last year and try and get 4-5 prospects back, including a couple of pitching prospects.  Now we'll watch him leave as a FA for virtually nothing.  Maybe if we're hopelessly out of it they move him in late July, but my guess is they'll be close enough to convince themselves to keep him and go for it.  Just a piss poor use of his value, IMO, but the ship has seemingly sailed.

I agree with you. 

[bobmc]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let me fix Tanaka’s statement:

”I have decided to stay with the Yankees for the next three seasons.   It was a simple decision for me as I have an elbow ligament that’s hanging by a thread and don’t want to risk that I couldn’t pass a physical if I opted for free agency.    At least this way I know I’ll make $67.5 mm the next three years even if I spend half that time recuperating from TJ surgery and am not that good when I return.”

This sounds ominously like uber schadenfreude....

[Roll Tide]

I'm thinking the Orioles would be much improved with Cashner and Chatwood and they shouldn't break the bank.

Chatwood has a mid 3 era outside of Coors, and Cashner is a good player. Team them with Bundy and Gausman and then find a fifth with Tillman and the slew of other 5th starter guys around.

[Number5]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I'm thinking the Orioles would be much improved with Cashner and Chatwood and they shouldn't break the bank.

Chatwood has a mid 3 era outside of Coors, and Cashner is a good player. Team them with Bundy and Gausman and then find a fifth with Tillman and the slew of other 5th starter guys around.

I disagree on Chatwood.  I think it would be a mistake to completely discount the 6 ERA he put up at Coors and put all of our eggs in his numbers when pitching against no DH in pitchers' parks.  Let's face it, pitching in the AL in Camden Yards is probably closer to pitching in Colorado than it is to pitching in San Diego or San Francisco.  He also walks too many and strikes out too few to make him a guy I want to go after.  He just doesn't seem to be much of an upgrade from what we've had here to me.  Seems like we could do at least as well, and probably better, for less than it would cost to sign Chatwood.  Just my opinion.

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, Number5 said:

I disagree on Chatwood.  I think it would be a mistake to completely discount the 6 ERA he put up at Coors and put all of our eggs in his numbers when pitching against no DH in pitchers' parks.  Let's face it, pitching in the AL in Camden Yards is probably closer to pitching in Colorado than it is to pitching in San Diego or San Francisco.  He also walks too many and strikes out too few to make him a guy I want to go after.  He just doesn't seem to be much of an upgrade from what we've had here to me.  Seems like we could do at least as well, and probably better, for less than it would cost to sign Chatwood.  Just my opinion.

There is nothing anywhere that is similar to pitching in Colorado.   Orioles pitchers had a road ERA that was 0.78 worse than at OPACY.   Rockies pitchers had a road ERA that was 0.84 runs/game better than at Coors.

That said, I don’t think Chatwood’s home ERA should be entirely disregarded.    Rather, it should be adjusted.    Chatwood’s overall ERA+ was 107 this year, 125 last year     That indicates he’s a pretty good pitcher.    But I wonder if the Orioles would ever sign a pitcher who’s had two TJ surgeries to a multi-year deal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mdbdotcom]

I would like to see us put the money it would  take to sign two Level 3 pitchers toward signing one Level 2 pitcher like Lynn or Cobb. With those guys you know you're going to get 30+ starts a season and a competitive effort every time.