Brian Roberts trade rumors back on!

[Sports Guy]

You are stripping all of these moves from organizational context. Or, your strategy is just to tire people out.

If you want me to, I can retype everything I have typed in this thread.

No...I am just merely showing that Melvin highly values the back end of the pen..That was my point..If you disagree with that, fine but you have zero evidence to support yourself and I have a lot of evidence to support myself.

[Sports Guy]

What does that even mean? Value Gb/FB ratio over Saves and ERA? Thats a meaningless statement.

GMs will have a very good idea of what to expect from somebody. They'll look at current raw production, the major stats like ERA and Saves. They'll also look at the other stuff, the periferal stuff and sabermetric stuff and have a good idea of what to expect. They'll know the risks of taking someone who's raw numbers are better than his predictive stats would think they'd be.

To think that you and I know things and care about smaller stats that GMs don't know about is beyond ridiculous. GMs never ignore things like that. If they trade for a guy who has bad periferals, they are knowingly rolling the dice. Its not a mystery to them when someone with bad periferals all of a suddens starts declining.

Your man crush for LaPorta in this thread has you to flustered.

My only point is and was(in regards to Sherrill) that a GM may look at his GB/FB ratio but that saves and ERA are going to be way more important.

No where have I said they don't know it, recognize it or anything else but if they want Sherrill, they aren't paying less because of it if he keeps up this pace that he is setting right now.

[davearm]

Oh, they look at it...But no way do most of them value that over saves and ERA.

If we were talking about an established, household-name closer, that'd be one thing. With a Billy Wagner or a Joe Nathan type, then sure, check the basic stats and send a scout out to confirm that his velocity's normal, and you're all set to make a deal. With those guys you know what you're getting because they've been around and productive for a long time.

Sherrill, there's still nothing close to a consensus about what you're getting. The guy's been everything from an Indy league pitcher to a LOOGY to a closer in the last few years. And the NL has had virtually no exposure to him. You can be pretty certain that any NL club looking to acquire him would do a good amount of digging first.

[crawdad]

No...I am just merely showing that Melvin highly values the back end of the pen..That was my point..If you disagree with that, fine but you have zero evidence to support yourself and I have a lot of evidence to support myself.

Try reading my entries sometimes. If you want to have a conversation about this topic fine. If you want to ignore other viewpoints and take into consideration that you may not know everything that is fine too.

And, yeah, way to misuse the GB/FB line. Look into the data a bit harder and don't be satisfied when something appears to support your own thesis. You wind up writing things that look like 10th grade english term papers.

[Mackus]

Your man crush for LaPorta in this thread has you to flustered.

My only point is and was(in regards to Sherrill) that a GM may look at his GB/FB ratio but that saves and ERA are going to be way more important.

No where have I said they don't know it, recognize it or anything else but if they want Sherrill, they aren't paying less because of it if he keeps up this pace that he is setting right now.

Of course Saves and ERA are going to be more important. Its because they are more important. What do you think is a better indicator of future success, GB%, Save%, or ERA?

Obviously a GM isn't going to look at only one of these things. They are gonna look at the whole picture. Each aspect gets weighted and then he applies a value to the guy. He then decides if the guy he's giving up is worth that value.

I don't see the problem here, really.

[tywright]

Any idea where LaPorta is going to play in our lineup?

[davearm]

And Linebrink doesn't have the value of Sherrill either and everyone universally said the Brewers paid a lot to get Linebrink.

The point is that you made the point that Melvin isn't one of these GMs that will value these things...it is obvious he does...He has targeted Cordero, Gagne and Linebrink in the last few years...He also paid a lot to Riske and of coruse, gave a good deal to Turnbow after his very good year.

He obviously values a BP very highly and has and will continue to pay a lot to get it right.

You really painted yourself into a corner by bringing up that Linebrink trade.

What the O's could get for Sherrill is a lot closer to what the Pads got for Linebrink than any of your hopeful notions about Matt LaPorta.

One good/very good prospect and two other Joes seems about right. And you can't give back the two Joes to upgrade from good/very good to top-25 in baseball.

[mallison]

Any idea where LaPorta is going to play in our lineup?

hahahaha... love it :-p

[elsid]

You really painted yourself into a corner by bringing up that Linebrink trade.

What the O's could get for Sherrill is a lot closer to what the Pads got for Linebrink than any of your hopeful notions about Matt LaPorta.

One good/very good prospect and two other Joes seems about right. And you can't give back the two Joes to upgrade from good/very good to top-25 in baseball.

Even I think that one good/very good prospect and two joes might be too much. I don't they will pull more than two people, with only one being a moderately high prospect.

[wickedwitch]

He gave up the package for Linebrink knowing he would have compensation picks in the draft.

But I don't think the value of those draft picks adds much to the package.

[LookinUp]

You really painted yourself into a corner by bringing up that Linebrink trade.

What the O's could get for Sherrill is a lot closer to what the Pads got for Linebrink than any of your hopeful notions about Matt LaPorta.

One good/very good prospect and two other Joes seems about right. And you can't give back the two Joes to upgrade from good/very good to top-25 in baseball.

It should be somewhere in between. Of course I don't think SG ever said Sherrill for LaPorta so it's a moot point. However, if anyone on this board is denying that Sherrill have very high value at this point, they're fooling themselves.

My only point, to everyone not just SG, was that LaPorta is extremely unlikely to be traded. This is a blue-chip prospect who likely isn't even eligible to be traded until August. Teams don't trade young cheap guys like that away in almost any circumstance...and we're not offering any single player (like Tex, Bedard last year) worthy of giving up that talent.

The only way we could get a LaPorta (and this might be worth a shot) is to consider a trade like Sherrill, Bradford, Roberts, D. Hernandez and P. Beato for LaPorta, Weeks and another. However, I don't think giving up young pitching is in McPhail's vocabulary.

[Stotle]

But I don't think the value of those draft picks adds much to the package.

Really? Picks 35 and 53 in this year's draft don't add value?

[bluehens45]

It should be somewhere in between. Of course I don't think SG ever said Sherrill for LaPorta so it's a moot point. However, if anyone on this board is denying that Sherrill have very high value at this point, they're fooling themselves.

My only point, to everyone not just SG, was that LaPorta is extremely unlikely to be traded. This is a blue-chip prospect who likely isn't even eligible to be traded until August. Teams don't trade young cheap guys like that away in almost any circumstance...and we're not offering any single player (like Tex, Bedard last year) worthy of giving up that talent.

The only way we could get a LaPorta (and this might be worth a shot) is to consider a trade like Sherrill, Bradford, Roberts, D. Hernandez and P. Beato for LaPorta, Weeks and another. However, I don't think giving up young pitching is in McPhail's vocabulary.

So you dont think DCab, Sherrill, and Roberts could net Escobar, Gamel, Laporta, and maybe Weeks and a low level prospect? What if we added a prospect and took on Hall? If the Brewers would do DCab, Sherrill, and Roberts for LaPorta, Gamel, and Escobar i would do that in a second.

[Richmond Bird 9]

Milwaukee and arbitration, this is one item that I have not seen mentioned. I would start with some kind of package of: Hall/Weeks/Escobar/Parra/Riske for Roberts/Sherill/Penn/Baez. I think the following players are in the arbitration years (Bush/Capaano/Fielder/Hardy/Weeks/Hart). A good reason to move/dump Hall.

[elsid]

So you dont think DCab, Sherrill, and Roberts could net Escobar, Gamel, Laporta, and maybe Weeks and a low level prospect? What if we added a prospect and took on Hall? If the Brewers would do DCab, Sherrill, and Roberts for LaPorta, Gamel, and Escobar i would do that in a second.

I think part of the whole issue that hasn't been mentioned is salary. I don't know off the top of my head what Roberts is due this year, however that is one reason why the original preposition of Roberts for Weeks might not even work, as the O's would have to throw in something else.

Now that Weeks is on the DL, that could change things a little. If the Orioles eat all of Roberts salary, then they might get more in the deal. However, on talent alone, I really don't think you get much more. Roberts is being way over valued with some people on here, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it could make things a little out of perspective.