What are the odds of a modest Chris Davis comeback in 2018?

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

The author of that blog is a major Orioles apologist. The contract was awful at the time because of the length and amount of money for a guy who had major red flags.

No one could have predicted this kind of falloff since it's almost historical in nature, but there was little information to think that Davis was going to worth his contract but a lot of information to believe it would become a boat anchor for an organization that can't afford a boat anchor.

The author says that Buck is confident that Davis is turn is around.   I don't think Buck is confident about Davis at all.  He does what he has to with a guy with a big contract.  Sits him sometimes now.

[Tony-OH]

37 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The author says that Buck is confident that Davis is turn is around.   I don't think Buck is confident about Davis at all.  He does what he has to with a guy with a big contract.  Sits him sometimes now.

What Buck says publicly and what he most likely truly thinks is most likely two different things. Some are gullible and take what Buck says publicly as gospel. Say what you want about Buck, he's not dumb and he certainly understands where Chris Davis is truly at offensively.

Now, do I think that Buck hopes that Davis will turn it around? Certainly.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

The author of that blog is a major Orioles apologist. The contract was awful at the time because of the length and amount of money for a guy who had major red flags.

No one could have predicted this kind of falloff since it's almost historical in nature, but there was little information to think that Davis was going to worth his contract but a lot of information to believe it would become a boat anchor for an organization that can't afford a boat anchor.

2014 season should have been a warning sign, you don't sign this guy to a long term deal for a competently run organization.  

[Luke-OH]

10 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

What Buck says publicly and what he most likely truly thinks is most likely two different things. Some are gullible and take what Buck says publicly as gospel. Say what you want about Buck, he's not dumb and he certainly understands where Chris Davis is truly at offensively.

Now, do I think that Buck hopes that Davis will turn it around? Certainly.

Buck will say whatever he needs to say. The straight talker shtick is just an act. He's a cunning politician. 

[Camden_yardbird]

I think we some regression to the mean for Davis.  The data suggests that he should not be THIS bad.  And I think most of the adjustments so far have been within his current approach.  I could see someone getting through to suggest an alternative that brings about a modicum of production.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

What Buck says publicly and what he most likely truly thinks is most likely two different things. Some are gullible and take what Buck says publicly as gospel. Say what you want about Buck, he's not dumb and he certainly understands where Chris Davis is truly at offensively.

Now, do I think that Buck hopes that Davis will turn it around? Certainly.

Buck’s job as manager is to be outwardly supportive of his players and show confidence in them, regardless of what he really thinks.   

[Moose Milligan]

Over his last 17 games (arbitrary number I just picked from baseball reference) 60 at bats, 30 strikeouts, 5 walks, a batting average of precisely .100 with a .279 OPS.  

 

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

What Buck says publicly and what he most likely truly thinks is most likely two different things. Some are gullible and take what Buck says publicly as gospel. Say what you want about Buck, he's not dumb and he certainly understands where Chris Davis is truly at offensively.

Now, do I think that Buck hopes that Davis will turn it around? Certainly.

 

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Buck’s job as manager is to be outwardly supportive of his players and show confidence in them, regardless of what he really thinks.   

Both correct.  

[atomic]

4 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

2014 season should have been a warning sign, you don't sign this guy to a long term deal for a competently run organization.  

I said that at the time.  I said how horrible his 2014 season was and everyone was but WAR says he was productive that season. And I said then WAR Is wrong and people laughed at me.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

15 minutes ago, atomic said:

I said that at the time.  I said how horrible his 2014 season was and everyone was but WAR says he was productive that season. And I said then WAR Is wrong and people laughed at me.

Chris Davis was worth 1.7 WAR in 2014.  He hit .196 with 173 strikeouts in 450 at bats.

WAR is a good statistic but it isn’t perfect.

 

[JR Oriole]

The Twins just sent Miguel Sano to Single A.  Single A!!!  He his hitting .203 with an OPS of .675.  Davis: .150 with an OPS of .454....but he gets to stay in the majors.  All because of a contract that is a sunk cost anyway.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, JR Oriole said:

The Twins just sent Miguel Sano to Single A.  Single A!!!  He his hitting .203 with an OPS of .675.  Davis: .150 with an OPS of .454....but he gets to stay in the majors.  All because of a contract that is a sunk cost anyway.

Also Davis doesn't have any options, he would have to agree to an assignment in the minors.  Orioles will likely gauge Davis' willingness to accept such a demotion soon if they haven't already.  

[Frobby]

27 minutes ago, atomic said:

I said that at the time.  I said how horrible his 2014 season was and everyone was but WAR says he was productive that season. And I said then WAR Is wrong and people laughed at me.

WAR measures performance, it doesn’t predict the future.    Nobody would have wanted to sign up Chris Davis to give us 7 years like 2014.    He was “productive” that year, but undoubtedly a below average starter even as measured by WAR (1.7 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR).   What he’s doing now is far worse than being a below average starter — he’s far worse than dozens of guys you could pick up and pay the major league minimum.    Chris Parmalee, come on down!   Where’s Brandon Snyder when you really need him?

[JR Oriole]

3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Also Davis doesn't have any options, he would have to agree to an assignment in the minors.  Orioles will likely gauge Davis' willingness to accept such a demotion soon if they haven't already.  

He should be willing to clean the toilets of the clubhouse every day for the next 4 1/2 years given that he is being paid a fortune to be a horrible player.  I get pride and all and going to the minors definitely hits you there, but I don't know how he has any pride left.  He is getting national press for a team that gets zero press other than Machado.  If being the biggest contract bust in history doesn't erase all of your ego and pride, I am not sure what would.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

He should be willing to clean the toilets of the clubhouse every day for the next 4 1/2 years given that he is being paid a fortune to be a horrible player.  I get pride and all and going to the minors definitely hits you there, but I don't know how he has any pride left.  He is getting national press for a team that gets zero press other than Machado.  If being the biggest contract bust in history doesn't erase all of your ego and pride, I am not sure what would.

I'm with you on this, if it was me I would begging to go on the DL with a "bad back".

[atomic]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

WAR measures performance, it doesn’t predict the future.    Nobody would have wanted to sign up Chris Davis to give us 7 years like 2014.    He was “productive” that year, but undoubtedly a below average starter even as measured by WAR (1.7 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR).   What he’s doing now is far worse than being a below average starter — he’s far worse than dozens of guys you could pick up and pay the major league minimum.    Chris Parmalee, come on down!   Where’s Brandon Snyder when you really need him?

I don't think Chris Davis was productive in 2014.  I think WAR has a flaw if it sees that as productive.  It is better than this year but it was a terrible season nonetheless.