What are the odds of a modest Chris Davis comeback in 2018?

[interloper]

Davis was quoted as saying he was going to work on some mechanical things this off-season. I forget the actual quote but it sounded like he was going to reassess his whole approach mechanically. We'll see.

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, interloper said:

Davis was quoted as saying he was going to work on some mechanical things this off-season. I forget the actual quote but it sounded like he was going to reassess his whole approach mechanically. We'll see.

Yep.  He said time to make some changes.  He and Scott Coolbaugh are probably working on it as we speak.

[maybenxtyr]

I don't think he can comeback enough in any season remaining on his contract where he has the stats to equal his salary. Mike Napoli will potentially sign for a few million this year. Davis has the edge in power, but overall they are fairly similar statistically.

[backwardsk]

16 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I don't think he can comeback enough in any season remaining on his contract where he has the stats to equal his salary. Mike Napoli will potentially sign for a few million this year. Davis has the edge in power, but overall they are fairly similar statistically.

Napoli was a combined 0.6 rWAR player over the past two seasons.  Davis was 2.9.

[Redskins Rick]

17 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

I remember this too on ESPN broadcast(s). He definitely had the highest tracked speed during that game and the highest speed ESPN had tracked that year. Now who knows if that estimate was good, how many players had been tracked via Sunday night baseball coverage, etc. But Redskin Rick’s memory is dead on. 

Whew, had me questioning my sanity there.

 

[LookitsPuck]

Here's something interesting to take away from 2017 vs. career norms re: pitches seen:

Career:

• Fastballs: 55.4%
• Sliders: 13.5%
• Cutters: 4.8%
• Curveballs: 11.8%
• Changeups: 11.2%
• Splits: 2.4%
• Knuckleballs: 0.8%

2017:

• Fastballs: 53.6%
• Sliders: 16.3%
• Cutters: 3.7%
• Curveballs: 13.7%
• Changeups: 10.6%
• Splits: 1.7%
• Knuckleballs: 0.3%

What immediately stands out to me is it looks like the league was throwing him less fastballs/cutters/splits and more sliders and curveballs. We're talking a combined increase of sliders/curves of nearly 5%. Let's look at the changes:

2017 vs: Career:

• Fastballs: -1.8%
• Sliders: +2.8%
• Cutters: -1.1%
• Curveballs: +1.9%
• Changeups: -0.6%
• Splits: -0.7%
• Knuckleballs: 0.5%

Now, if we look at his pitch values from 2017 vs. career with the Orioles, it's also mighty telling, too:

• Career (with Orioles):
  • Fastballs: +17.45
  • Sliders: +3.3
  • Cutters: +2.6
  • Curveballs: -2.8
  • Changeups: +1.9
  • Splits: -0.1
  • Knuckleballs: +0.1
• 2017:
  • Fastballs: -2.2
  • Sliders: -2.6
  • Cutters: +3.9
  • Curveballs: -5.8
  • Changeups: +2.4
  • Splits: -0.5
  • Knuckeballs: +0.9

So the only positive pitch values from Davis in 2017 were cutters, changeups and knuckleballs. There was a humongous drop-off from fastballs. He's traditionally been a big fastball hitter. Hell, even in 2016 he netted a +24 on fastballs.

So interestingly enough, in 2017 he saw *less* fastballs/cutters/splits and more sliders and curveballs. I'd imagine of the fastballs he saw, they probably exploited the hell out of him. I'm just taking a guess here, but most likely less fastballs down and in...and more up and up and in. 

I wonder if the league saw that he was known for hitting fastballs at the beginning of the year....and then as he showed a dropoff, they started exploiting it more as the season went on. So maybe: less fastballs at the beginning of 2017 and then they started pumping them in more. 

If we look at the average speeds on pitches in 2017 that he saw:

• Fastballs: 93.0 mph
• Sliders: 84.1 mph
• Cutters: 88.7 mph
• Curveballs: 79 mph
• Changeups: 84.7 mph
• Splits: 85.2 mph
• Knuckeballs: 72.5 mph

It would seem to me that he was having severe problems with heat (93.0 mph). He hasn't always been a prolific slider/curveball hitter, so as his ability has decreased, pitchers took advantage of that. The positive cutter/change values make sense to me because they're largely slower pitchers and don't traditionally have as much break to them as, say, a slider or a curveball. 

So, yeah. It's odd. I'm beginning to wonder if it *might* be bat speed combined with his eyesight. That's a humongous dropoff YoY, but maybe a combination of eyesight/bat speed and confidence. Might be mechanics out of whack. Maybe that oblique issue and a lingering wrist issue? That would make sense.

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Here's something interesting to take away from 2017 vs. career norms re: pitches seen:

Career:

• Fastballs: 55.4%
• Sliders: 13.5%
• Cutters: 4.8%
• Curveballs: 11.8%
• Changeups: 11.2%
• Splits: 2.4%
• Knuckleballs: 0.8%

2017:

• Fastballs: 53.6%
• Sliders: 16.3%
• Cutters: 3.7%
• Curveballs: 13.7%
• Changeups: 10.6%
• Splits: 1.7%
• Knuckleballs: 0.3%

What immediately stands out to me is it looks like the league was throwing him less fastballs/cutters/splits and more sliders and curveballs.

Generally speaking, the league is throwing fewer fastballs these days, regardless of who is batting.    57.6% in 2012, 55.6% now.   So I'm not sure the changes regarding the mix of pitches thrown to Davis are the result of anything specific about him.

[El Gordo]

If CD had played an 162 G season he would have hit 33 HR and 78 RBI's. Not great but not bad. If he;s healthy he should do at least that well. 40/60,he does better IMO.

[Luke-OH]

27 minutes ago, El Gordo said:

If CD had played an 162 G season he would have hit 33 HR and 78 RBI's. Not great but not bad. If he;s healthy he should do at least that well. 40/60,he does better IMO.

Do you think Rougned Odor had a good 2017? He hit 30 HR, stole 15 bases, and had 75 RBI.

He also made an out 75% of his PAs and had the worst overall batting line of every qualified MLB hitter.

[El Gordo]

7 hours ago, phillyOs119 said:

Do you think Rougned Odor had a good 2017? He hit 30 HR, stole 15 bases, and had 75 RBI.

He also made an out 75% of his PAs and had the worst overall batting line of every qualified MLB hitter.

CD made an out 69 % of the time. Not great but not Odor.

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, El Gordo said:

If CD had played an 162 G season he would have hit 33 HR and 78 RBI's. Not great but not bad. If he;s healthy he should do at least that well. 40/60,he does better IMO.

I don’t think 33 HR and 78 RBI is good when accompanied by a .215/.309/.423 slash line.    His -0.1 rWAR would have been worse if he’d maintained the same level of play over 162 games.   

[TouchemAll]

I got a coin call it heads or tails...

[atomic]

On 12/26/2017 at 11:01 AM, webbrick2010 said:

He's toast

He would be DFA'ed if not for the contract

He will be DFA'ed before his contract expires

Maybe we can DFA him and Trumbo on the same day.  I wonder whose idea it was to sign two low average , super high strike out first basemen to long term contracts.  

[atomic]

9 hours ago, El Gordo said:

If CD had played an 162 G season he would have hit 33 HR and 78 RBI's. Not great but not bad. If he;s healthy he should do at least that well. 40/60,he does better IMO.

He would have also struck out 247 times obliterating Mark Reynolds single season strike out record. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, cimota said:

He would have also struck out 247 times obliterating Mark Reynolds single season strike out record. 

Buck would have pulled him out of games to keep him from setting the record.