What are the odds of a modest Chris Davis comeback in 2018?

[weams]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

Nice Catch 8!  (See what i did there...)

The bottom line is that we all want Davis to have a modest comeback or better.  And let's face it, the money is committed.  

Realistically, the chances are not good and the above lays out perfectly why.  Davis has a poor approach and his declining skills will only continue to erode from here.  We almost have to hope that something in his work this winter brings the aha moment and a change in approach.  

I like Chris Davis a lot.  My son wears his number and has for years.  I want nothing more than a return to the form we came to expect.

I do find this article from his "peak" to be interesting...

http://grantland.com/features/jonah-keri-baltimore-heavy-hitting-chris-davis/ 

I wonder why he got so good. Then so bad again. 

[Catch 8]

1 hour ago, weams said:

Front Page. 

Thank you so much   I am honored!

[wildcard]

Davis from Mlb Hot Stove on concentrating of hitting earlier in the count.

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/video/davis-on-reducing-strikeouts/c-1871887483

[Beef Supreme]

On 12/26/2017 at 10:40 AM, Frobby said:

In 2017, Chris Davis batted .215/.309/.423 with 26 HR and 61 RBI and struck out in 37.2% of his plate appearances.

The three major projection systems that have published projections so far have him making a bit of a comeback in 2018:

Steamer: .227/.331/.479, 35 HR 88 RBI 34.3% K rate

ZiPS: .223/.318/.459, 31 HR 81 RBI 36.2% K rate

Marcel: .231/.330/.471, 30 HR 71 RBI 32.9% K rate

None of those projections would have us doing cartwheels, or justify a $23 mm salary, but they’d still represent a considerable improvement over last year.    What do you think — is it reasonable to hope for this level of improvement?

It's realistic to expect a better season than last year. A modest comeback would be 2016 totals: .221/.332/.459/.791, 38 HRs. Barring injury, that not only seems possible, it seems 85% probable.

I think it is within the realm of possibility to see Davis slash .240/.335/.480/.815 this year.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

It's realistic to expect a better season than last year. A modest comeback would be 2016 totals: .221/.332/.459/.791, 38 HRs. Barring injury, that not only seems possible, it seems 85% probable.

I think it is within the realm of possibility to see Davis slash .240/.335/.480/.815 this year.

85% probable that he’ll return to at least 2016 levels?    I’m not as optimistic as that.   But I hope so.

[Ripken]

He looks terrible this spring.  I think it's unlikely he ever OPS's 800 again.  Such a brutal contract.

[Beef Supreme]

5 minutes ago, Ripken said:

He looks terrible this spring.  I think it's unlikely he ever OPS's 800 again.  Such a brutal contract.

He's been injured for most of spring training.

[interloper]

43 minutes ago, Ripken said:

He looks terrible this spring.  I think it's unlikely he ever OPS's 800 again.  Such a brutal contract.

He looks pretty good honestly, I think. I'm fairly optimistic.

[Ripken]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

He looks pretty good honestly, I think. I'm fairly optimistic.

Here's hoping...

[Can_of_corn]

55 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

He's been injured for most of spring training.

And as he ages he's more likely to be injured.

[MarylandAaron]

On 1/11/2018 at 4:56 AM, wildcard said:

Davis from Mlb Hot Stove on concentrating of hitting earlier in the count.

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/video/davis-on-reducing-strikeouts/c-1871887483

Glad to see he has a humble attitude and wants to work on his game. I agree he needs to be more aggressive early in the count. If he can get back to something like he was in 2015-16, I would be more than happy with that. He just needs to avoid those long stretches where he's an automatic out.

[Il BuonO]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And as he ages he's more likely to be injured.

And not be as good.

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, Ripken said:

He looks terrible this spring.  I think it's unlikely he ever OPS's 800 again.  Such a brutal contract.

 

1 hour ago, interloper said:

He looks pretty good honestly, I think. I'm fairly optimistic.

He looks a lot like 2016 Chris Davis.   Spring stats are .214/.313/.464, one strikeout every 3.2 PA.

[interloper]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

He looks a lot like 2016 Chris Davis.   Spring stats are .214/.313/.464, one strikeout every 3.2 PA.

Not really concerned about the stats. It's spring training. He looks like he's swinging at pitches he should be swinging at mostly. More aggressive.

[Tx Oriole]

37 minutes ago, interloper said:

Not really concerned about the stats. It's spring training. He looks like he's swinging at pitches he should be swinging at mostly. More aggressive.

I don't know but I am not going to hold my breath on that possibility.