Manny ranked the no. 8 3B “right now” by MLB Network; Beckham ranked no. 10 SS

[Bradysburns]

2 hours ago, Number5 said:

I'm not so sure I agree.  Brooks was an offensive force, as well as a defensive superstar, in his mid-to-late 20's.  OPS+ in his age 25-31 years was 126, 91, 145, 124, 123, 124, 117.  His age 26 season in 1963 was the anomaly, not the norm.  Manny may well outperform Brooks in the coming years offensively, but I don't think it is quite a foregone conclusion.  Do you?

All true, of course. Then again, Manny has yet to reach any of the ages you reference here for Brooks. Manny's track record to date suggests he's a better offensive player, I assume we'd agree. At least based on the shared stats we have available? As to whether he continues to outperform Brooks offensively, it seems more likely than not.

From what I understand, though, Brooks remained a beast well into his late 30s. Will Manny accomplish that feat? It seems less likely. In other words, I would bet Manny's career won't last as long... but his career OPS will be significantly higher.  Just spitballin' of course. 

[Number5]

3 hours ago, davearm said:

The $16M is also not insignificant, particularly in the climate we're seeing right now around baseball.

Not hard to imagine a team might prefer to have Machado for 1/3 of the regular season (plus all of the postseason) for ~$5.5M.

Ultimately, I don't see a return similar to McCutchen or JD Martinez coming anywhere close to getting Angelos to sign off on.  But that seems to be the market.

I don't agree that the return for McCutchen is the market for Machado.  Machado is worth more, IMO.

[davearm]

2 hours ago, Number5 said:

I don't agree that the return for McCutchen is the market for Machado.  Machado is worth more, IMO.

Not sure why that would be. Age is hardly a factor when both guys are FAs in a year.  Salary is similar (McCutchen a slight edge).  WAR output has been similar (McCutchen a slight edge).

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, davearm said:

Not sure why that would be. Age is hardly a factor when both guys are FAs in a year.  Salary is similar (McCutchen a slight edge).  WAR output has been similar (McCutchen a slight edge).

Seriously?    You don’t think that a year of Machado is worth significantly more than a year of McCutchen at this point in their careers?    To me that’s crazy talk.    

[El Gordo]

5 hours ago, Bradysburns said:

All true, of course. Then again, Manny has yet to reach any of the ages you reference here for Brooks. Manny's track record to date suggests he's a better offensive player, I assume we'd agree. At least based on the shared stats we have available? As to whether he continues to outperform Brooks offensively, it seems more likely than not.

From what I understand, though, Brooks remained a beast well into his late 30s. Will Manny accomplish that feat? It seems less likely. In other words, I would bet Manny's career won't last as long... but his career OPS will be significantly higher.  Just spitballin' of course. 

Through age 24 Manny 117 OPS+ Brooks 92; Manny Rtot 47, Brooks 53.

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, davearm said:

Not sure why that would be. Age is hardly a factor when both guys are FAs in a year.  Salary is similar (McCutchen a slight edge).  WAR output has been similar (McCutchen a slight edge).

I'm not sure how team's internal projection systems value Manny and McCutchen going forward, but looking at publicly available projections for 2018, Manny holds a significant advantage.

ZiPS has McCutchen at 3.4 WAR and Manny at 4.9 WAR

Steamer has McCutchen at 2.7 WAR and Manny at 6.3 WAR

So averaging those two projections (studies have shown an aggregate of projections are better than a single system) you get...

McCutchen - 3.05 WAR

Machado - 5.60 WAR

Manny is making 16 million, McCutchen is making 14.75 million with the Pirates paying 2.5 million in the trade, so the Giants are paying 12.25 million.

Looking at a conservative 8m/WAR valuation, Machado has 20.4 million more in value for 2018 and is making 3.75 million more.  So 16.65 million more value than Andrew McCutchen.

16.65 million which is about the value of a top 100-150 prospect on top of what the Pirates got for McCutchen.

Plus there may be some more intangible value in consolidating talent in a player like Manny plus the value of the draft pick the team would get after Manny turns down a QO (McCutchen could get a QO as well, but is not nearly a lock like Manny is).

[davearm]

It's not unreasonable to expect Machado might out-WAR McCutchen in 2018.  It has already happened twice.

[LA2]

On January 16, 2018 at 4:49 PM, Frobby said:

It’s one of those age old questions.   I’d say you can’t really make yourself better, but you might be able to make yourself worse by pressing, trying to do too much, etc.

I picked out 10 guys I could think of who probably had about the most playoff at bats of anyone over the last 25 years (I’m sure I forgot some).     Here’s their career OPS vs. playoff OPS, and how many PA they had in the postseason.

Jeter (734 PA): .817/.838

B. Williams (545 PA): .858/.850

M. Ramirez (493 PA): .996/.937

Posada (492 PA): .848/.745

C. Jones (417 PA): .930/.864

T. Martinez (405 PA): .815/.672

Ortiz (369 PA): .931/.947

A. Jones (279 PA): .823/.796

Bonds (208 PA): 1.051/.936

You have to keep in mind that the quality of pitchers is higher in the playoffs, and of course there’s noise here regarding whether a player was in the playoffs in his best offensive years, etc.

Just to remind people of the O's post-season secret weapon:

Flaherty (36 PA): .639/.830

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, LA2 said:

Just to remind people of the O's secret post-season weapon:

Flaherty (36 PA): .639/.830

[weams]

Quote

Beckham is working out in California with vice president of baseball operations Brady Anderson and he’s expected to visit third base coach Bobby Dickerson, who serves as infield instructor, before returning home and getting ready for spring training.

 

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/01/showalter-nearing-confirmation-on-machados-position-for-2018.html

[bobmc]

29 minutes ago, weams said:

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2018/01/showalter-nearing-confirmation-on-machados-position-for-2018.html

“Why should I be any different?” Showalter said, deflecting whether he expected to manage the Orioles in 2019. “Here’s Manny, does he know where he’s going to be next year? Zach Britton, Adam Jones, Caleb Joseph, Dan, the coaches? We’re all operating on one-year deals. Who am I? I’m lucky to have that. I mean, come on. 

“It’s not a topic at all at our house. I mean that. I get kind of sideways when I see these people from a distance, ‘What about next year?’ What about right now? What are we going to do to make the Orioles better and tomorrow and the next day and the next day, and something that’s going to stand the test of time? It’s pretty selfish that that should be some focus doing the baseball season and you’re the only one going through that.

“You know what you’re doing next year? People sitting at home don’t want to hear that. So there’s my answer.”

[Can_of_corn]

7-5-3-7-4

[Il BuonO]

On 1/19/2018 at 1:03 AM, Luke-OH said:

Is it just me or is Flaherty mouthing,” Come on, **censored**”, at the pitcher here?

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Is it just me or is Flaherty mouthing,” Come on, censored,” at the pitcher here?

He is, Chapman was pitching if I remember correctly.

I also seem to recall Flaherty not getting on base.

[Il BuonO]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

He is, Chapman was pitching if I remember correctly.

I also seem to recall Flaherty not getting on base.

Shocking that Flaherty couldn’t get on base vs Chapman.