Does signing Vargas, Cashner and (Tillman to an incentive contract) make the O's a wild card contender?

[wildcard]

I think the odds of the O's signing all three are low because other teams need pitching, but if it happens do the O's contend?

The holdup in signing is probably money and years.  Cashner is reported to want 3 years.  The O's probably want two years.   Vargas may want two years, the O's probably want him for one.   Tillman is ok with a one year contract but probably is looking for the highest base salary he can get.  

What do you think?  If the O's can make it happen do they contend this year if Manny stays?

[Tx Oriole]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the odds of the O's signing all three are low because other teams need pitching, but if it happens do the O's contend?

The holdup in signing is probably money and years.  Cashner is reported to want 3 years.  The O's probably want two years.   Vargas may want two years, the O's probably want him for one.   Tillman is ok with a one year contract but probably is looking for the highest base salary he can get.  

What do you think?  If the O's can make it happen do they contend this year if Manny stays?

Nope. 

[mdbdotcom]

Even if we sign all three of them AND they all perform as hoped, we will still need for the offense to come back to life. An offensive showing like last year's simply isn't good enough. We need three competent starters AND Davis and Trumbo to be contributors again, instead of the rally killers they were last year. 

[gmelson26]

I just don't see it.  Too many question marks.  Bundy and Gausman aren't certain.  Could get a 3.5 era from Gausman.. could just as easily be 5.75.  Schoop probably won't have quite the season.  Another year on the wrong side of 30 for a lot of players, whom we are hoping hit better than last year(s).  No all star closer for nearly half the season.  One could go on. 

That being said, all 3 of those options will most likely be an upgrade from last year.  I don't think Tillman could realistically do worse than he did in 2017; so you have to assume he'd be at least a bit better.  But BOS and MFY are young teams now.  They will be getting a bit better, in theory, with another year of experience.  I think a lot would have to go right and stay right for us to be real contenders.  Science says this is a possible, but not probable.

[foxfield]

10 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Even if we sign all three of them AND they all perform as hoped, we will still need for the offense to come back to life. An offensive showing like last year's simply isn't good enough. We need three competent starters AND Davis and Trumbo to be contributors again, instead of the rally killers they were last year. 

To be fair, if we make the assumption for planning sake, that we sign all three AND they all perform as hoped, AND one or both of Davis and Trumbo do not perform.  I think something would happen to replace one or both even if it meant eating money.

One thing I kind of like about the DD/Buck combo is that Buck is loyal almost to a fault and DD seems to be willing to move on whether right or wrong.  I have no doubt Buck would trot them out in the lineup daily beyond all of our comfort if they were underperforming and I think DD would eventually take that opportunity away.  

I personally believe the two are the weakest links (non pitching category) and I think they are not going to top their previous best years, but a small rebound for at least one of them is not impossible.  I will be hoping for a massive rebound for both however...as will we all.

[TommyPickles]

Yea I think it does make the Os wildcard contenders. 

I think there would still be a less than 50% chance of making the wildcard, but I do think they’d have a shot.

Os were in the hunt for that second wildcard deep into last season before the September collapse. They made the wildcard the year before. It would take all of those pitchers having good year though.

[weams]

http://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2018/01/18/orioles-fans-panicking-wrong-reason-not-calendar-philosophy/

[mdbdotcom]

3 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Yea I think it does make the Os wildcard contenders. 

I think there would still be a less than 50% chance of making the wildcard, but I do think they’d have a shot.

Os were in the hunt for that second wildcard deep into last season before the September collapse. They made the wildcard the year before. It would take all of those pitchers having good year though.

The Yankees, Twins and Angels are all a lot better than they were when we last made the playoffs. Just getting back to that level won't cut it for us. We have to be better than the teams that have been improving.

[ScGO's]

I'd rather have Lackey on a strong 1 year deal than Cashner.  AL East proven, and had a great 2nd half last year.  If you aren't going to pay for Darvish, Cobb, Arrietta, or Lynn, then we should NOT be giving out multi year deals to pitchers.  Can Vargas be gotten on a 1 year while he tries to reestablish his value?  Dickey and Garcia are one year deal types too.  There are a lot of interesting vets out there that could be signed to milb deals or incentive-driven 1 year deals too:  Tillman, Holland, Bucholz, Cain, Wood, Colon, Cahill.

If we can get a rotations like:  Gausman, Bundy, Lackey, Vargas, Spring Training winner out of the rest, than I could see us sticking around in the wild card, but we need to have some veteran depth for that #5 spot.

[VaBird1]

It certainly could.  It is possible in that scenario that Gausman is the fourth best starter.  That team could win 87 or 88 games.

[ScGO's]

Need to stick to 1 year deals too, so everything can come off the books at the same time after this season

[Frobby]

If I had to guess, I’d say that’s not enough.   The peripherals suggest that both Cashner and Vargas are due for a big drop-off this year.   Either one could be a Ubaldo-level disaster, but that’s not a certainty either.    So I’d say if they got lucky, they might get enough from those two to contend for a wild card spot.    Not for the division title.    

I’m fine leaving the fifth spot open to competition, so long as we have solid answers at 3 and 4.    

[bpilktree67]

Yes I think so.  The 2nd wild card is basically an 85-87 win team.  Those three  puts us in the 82-85 win area imo.  I think the 2nd wild card teams are a Blue Jays, Twins, Angles, and us in that situation.  The issue will be being in the AL East and two top teams.  Which may make it hard as the Central is really weak outside of Indians and Twins.  The West is Astros and everyone else.  I am not sold on L.A 's pitching though they were pretty good last year.  

[wildcard]

There are many things that make me believe that if the O's could sign Vargas, Cashner and Tillman they would contend.

1) Miley, Jimenez, Tillman and Hellickson combined for a 6.61 ERA in 445 IP.   If Cashner, Vargas and Tillman are just average they who be:

Cashner  4.26 ERA in 161 IP

Vargas  4.17ERA in 179 IP

Tillman 5.12  ERA in 146 IP

That would be a 4.48 ERA in 486 IP.   That could mean 2.18 ERA drop on the games they pitch.  That would be huge. And would mean more than any single move another contender makes.

2) Gausman found out how  to pitch effectively in the 2nd half last year and this time he has a pitching coach to make sure he repeats it.   Gausman lost his Walker as his pitching after 2016.   McDowell  had to learn what worked to Gausman last year.  Now both Tillman and McDowell know how to make Tillman effective and that should carry over to 2018.

3) Bundy is a stud starter with no restriction this year.  He should be able to pitch 200 innings this year and he has pitches, savvy, attitude and now the stamina to be one of the best pitcher in league.

4) Adding three starters make the pen  Brach, Givens, O'Day, Bleier, Castro, Mesa and Cortes until Britton comes back.   Yacabonis and Hart at AAA.  That looks like a strong pen to me.

5) Manny will have a career year to set himself up for FA.

6)  I look for Hays to have too good a spring to sent down.  He improves the outfield defense and will hold his own on offense.

7) I think the most important thing for the catchers is to play good defense, call good games and control the running game.  Joseph can do that 80-100 games.   I think Wynns can do that as a back up.     If Sisco can show he can do that and hits he will push Wynns to AAA.   All three have options which could help during the season.

8) I think both Davis and Trumbo will have bounce back years.   Not career years but better that last year.

9)  Schoop, Manny,  and Mancini are young improving players that will be the core of the offense.

10) I don't believe its important to have many left-handed hitters in the lineup.   It is important the the O's have players that can hit righthanded pitching.  The O's already have that. 

 

[tntoriole]

21 hours ago, wildcard said:

There are many things that make me believe that if the O's could sign Vargas, Cashner and Tillman they would contend.

1) Miley, Jimenez, Tillman and Hellickson combined for a 6.61 ERA in 445 IP.   If Cashner, Vargas and Tillman are just average they who be:

Cashner  4.26 ERA in 161 IP

Vargas  4.17ERA in 179 IP

Tillman 5.12  ERA in 146 IP

That would be a 4.48 ERA in 486 IP.   That could mean 2.18 ERA drop on the games they pitch.  That would be huge. And would mean more than any single move another contender makes.

2) Gausman found out how  to pitch effectively in the 2nd half last year and this time he has a pitching coach to make sure he repeats it.   Gausman lost his Walker as his pitching after 2016.   McDowell  had to learn what worked to Gausman last year.  Now both Tillman and McDowell know how to make Tillman effective and that should carry over to 2018.

3) Bundy is a stud starter with no restriction this year.  He should be able to pitch 200 innings this year and he has pitches, savvy, attitude and now the stamina to be one of the best pitcher in league.

4) Adding three starters make the pen  Brach, Givens, O'Day, Bleier, Castro, Mesa and Cortes until Britton comes back.   Yacabonis and Hart at AAA.  That looks like a strong pen to me.

5) Manny will have a career year to set himself up for FA.

6)  I look for Hays to have too good a spring to sent down.  He improves the outfield defense and will hold his own on offense.

7) I think the most important thing for the catchers is to play good defense, call good games and control the running game.  Joseph can do that 80-100 games.   I think Wynns can do that as a back up.     If Sisco can show he can do that and hits he will push Wynns to AAA.   All three have options which could help during the season.

8) I think both Davis and Trumbo will have bounce back years.   Not career years but better that last year.

9)  Schoop, Manny,  and Mancini are young improving players that will be the core of the offense.

10) I don't believe its important to have many left-handed hitters in the lineup.   It is important the the O's have players that can hit righthanded pitching.  The O's already have that. 

 

I wish I had some of the same optimism.   Nowhere in any of this 10 do I see anything about anyone getting injured or not over performing or regressing.   And assumptions that mediocre starters like Cashman and Vargas will be another year older and stay "just average" are the same assumptions that optimists made about Jimenez, Miley and Gallardo.   I believe Chris Tillman is functionally impaired and could very well be  done with his career.   Manny could look forward and get in a funk about losing and have a regressed season because he gets ahead of himself.   Davis and Trumbo could be the same or worse than they were last year.   Not since the the bad years have I seen our starting pitching prospects as dismal as they stand on this day, right now.  And adding Cashner (who is Gallardo redux, imho) and Vargas (unlikely) does not  improve them near enough to contend even for a second wild card, in my view.    

Obviously they are going to do something and try to "contend" in 2018.   But this fan is not supporting any moves in that direction except for trading Machado and any other pieces that are due to be free agents and engaging in a true rebuild.