What do the starters really need to do for us to contend for a wild card spot?

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

15 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

Maybe we should take a look at what the starting rotations look like for other teams hoping to land the 2nd wild card.

Blue Jays

• Stroman
• Happ
• Estrada
• Sanchez
• Garcia

Twins

• Santana (DL)
• Berrios
• Odorizzi
• Mejia
• Gibson
• Hughes

Angels

• Richards
• Heaney
• Ohtani
• Shoemaker

How do the O's stack up?

• Gausman
• Bundy
• Cashner
• Tillman
• Cortes (or someone else)

Thankfully, I feel like there are a good amount of question marks in the other rotations as well. 

[now]

To expand this topic a bit beyond the starters... Undoubtedly the rotation is the key to the season, and some other big pieces can fall either way as well. 

In a recent post I outlined the main hopeful-yet-reasonable scenarios for this season. Likely they are not all going to turn out this way; and no doubt other things will go wrong to offset some gains. But as a thumbnail exercise, I'm curious how many wins can be added through the following events:

- What if Gausman finally has a great year, Bundy and Cashner are average for them, Tillman regains his mechanics, and Cortes lives up to his MiL record?
= +8 W (3 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 1)

- What if only one of Davis and Trumbo bounces back with 40 HRs?
= +3 W

- What if O'Day pitches like he can and Britton is back by June?
= +1 W

- What if Hays makes an impact, and Mancini continues to outperform his doubters?
= +2 W

- What if Manny and Schoop, now in their prime, both turn it up a notch and vie for MVP honors?
= +3 W

Total gain = +17 W
75 + 17 = 92 W

So looking at it both realistically and optimistically, my guess is that 92 wins (and a WC berth) is the best-case scenario for this team.