Something has to be done with Mark Trumbo

[Aglets]

I remember the Orioles cutting Jay Gibbons in Spring Training one year........how bad was he at that time?  And how much money was left on his contract?

According to Wiki this was 2008 and he about 2 years and $12M left on his deal.  He was also coming off of a rather abysmal 2007 where he had a .621 OPS and a -1.1 WAR.

I don't think Trumbo has gotten to that bad of a spot yet.......

[Tony-OH]

If you really want to be depressed, here's Trumbo's numbers since the second half of 2016.

G: 218
PAs: 895
HR: 42
BB: 67
K: 220
Slash: .228/.287/.421/.708

Here's the season and a half before Trumbo's great 2016 1st half

G: 209
PAs: 820
HR: 29
BB: 59
K: 199
slash: .256/.307/.428/.735

So outside of his 1st half of 2016 season, what makes anyone think he's not the .720 ish OPS DH that he probably is at this point in his career as a 32-year old?

The Orioles (surprise, surprise) gave out a bad contract to a one dimensional power hitter who had a good half a season in the last four years. No other way of candy coating it. It's time for them to move on.

 

[foxfield]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How so?

Manny should be worth ~50M in excess value this season.  Do you agree with that estimation?

Now I certainly don't think the O's would trade Manny for a #4 and a #5.  Do you agree with that?

Let's say they want a #3 with five years of team control and a #4-5 type with a full six years. 

Now a #3 should be worth 3 wins a year right?  That's 25 million in value a season.  Lets say they pay him 30 million over those five years.  We have 95M in excess value.

Let's give the #4-5 guy 1.75 wins a year, slightly below average.  That's 84M in value.  Lets say you pay him 20M for those six years.  We have 64M in excess value.

Combined you are trading 50M in value for 159M in value. 

To be honest I think I'm being conservative with the value of the players coming back since the value of a win will be going up.

That is why I think Manny isn't worth what the O's are asking.

I think the 50M is conservative but not unreasonable.  IF you assume $8M per win and if Manny has an 8 WAR season that would be 49M of excess value.  64-15 = $49 I think the pick has a value of at least 15M.

I also think you assume that in both trades the Orioles are getting guaranteed commodities.  I think your $150 number is possible, but sometimes those controllable guys flame out and sometimes they become stars.  You are assuming a pretty successful path for both.  By the same token the pick could well be worth the #4-5 guy in your scenario.  The most known quantity in your scenario is Manny...who is also in a walk year.  

I would note that you say the ORIOLES won't trade Manny for a #4 and a #5. I agree with that.

At the end of the day, the question is SHOULD the O's take a deal now or keep Manny...and I would say if they were not overwhelmed, keeping him, for now, is best.  (Although his value changes for sure for everyone but the O's once play starts)

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

For what it's worth, this is what baseball-reference.com is projecting for Trumbo this year.  Not great, but would be a vast improvement over 2017.

 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trumbma01.shtml

Year ▲	Tm	Age	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Rel
2018	Proj.	32	568	522	74	129	23	1	28	73	2	0	42	142	.247	.305	.456	.761	238	12	2	0	1	1	86%

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I think the 50M is conservative but not unreasonable.  IF you assume $8M per win and if Manny has an 8 WAR season that would be 49M of excess value.  64-15 = $49 I think the pick has a value of at least 15M.

I also think you assume that in both trades the Orioles are getting guaranteed commodities.  I think your $150 number is possible, but sometimes those controllable guys flame out and sometimes they become stars.  You are assuming a pretty successful path for both.  By the same token the pick could well be worth the #4-5 guy in your scenario.  The most known quantity in your scenario is Manny...who is also in a walk year.  

I would note that you say the ORIOLES won't trade Manny for a #4 and a #5. I agree with that.

At the end of the day, the question is SHOULD the O's take a deal now or keep Manny...and I would say if they were not overwhelmed, keeping him, for now, is best.  (Although his value changes for sure for everyone but the O's once play starts)

I'd put the value of the pick as closer to 10M than 15M.  The only thing we really have to go on how they are valued by the industry is the second round picks Dan sold.

Manny has yet to have an 8 win season.  That being the case I am not going to forecast one in 2018.  He certainly could, but he hasn't done it to date.

Of course the players could exceed or fall short of expectations.  I was going with what I thought was a reasonable projection for what the O's would accept.  To be completely honest I am not sure that package would be enough to get the owner to sign off.

[foxfield]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'd put the value of the pick as closer to 10M than 15M.  The only thing we really have to go on how they are valued by the industry is the second round picks Dan sold.

Manny has yet to have an 8 win season.  That being the case I am not going to forecast one in 2018.  He certainly could, but he hasn't done it to date.

Of course the players could exceed or fall short of expectations.  I was going with what I thought was a reasonable projection for what the O's would accept.  To be completely honest I am not sure that package would be enough to get the owner to sign off.

All valid speculation.  And I agree, owner may not have accepted 1 top player....

But you don't trade Manny for last years 3War...you trade him for his potential...that is how the O's valued him and I dont think they ever claimed to be setting a fair and reasonable price.  I think they said wow us and it would take this....

Teams called that bluff and the season is set to go...Here is hoping Manny puts up 8+ WAR.  Hell we have plenty of #4 #5 pitchers anyway.  It's #1-#3 we need!

[interloper]

0-4 in today's game, while the rest of the offense continued to show up. 

[interloper]

He was the only batter to get 4 ABs.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, interloper said:

0-4 in today's game, while the rest of the offense continued to show up. 

Don't worry, he's a notorious slow starter.

 

 

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Don't worry, he's a notorious slow starter.

 

 

You mean in spring training, because his .271/.316/.479/.795 in April is his second best month behind May over his career.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Tony-OH said:

You mean in spring training, because his .271/.316/.479/.795 in April is his second best month behind May over his career.

Was a joke Tony.

 

[interloper]

37 minutes ago, Aglets said:

I remember the Orioles cutting Jay Gibbons in Spring Training one year........how bad was he at that time?  And how much money was left on his contract?

According to Wiki this was 2008 and he about 2 years and $12M left on his deal.  He was also coming off of a rather abysmal 2007 where he had a .621 OPS and a -1.1 WAR.

I don't think Trumbo has gotten to that bad of a spot yet.......

A glorious moment in Orioles history when MacPhail finally pulled the plug on Jay Gibbons and started the rebuild in earnest. 

I believe there was also a roster crunch and they wanted to get some younger guys on the team, but I can't really remember who. Not to mention the steroid stuff, the fact that he couldn't play defense or run or hit. 

Maybe Trumbo will mercifully get caught juicing. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Was a joke Tony.

 

So 450 OPS post all star break for Trumbo this season?  I'd have to think even Buck would bench Trumbo at that point.  

At this point if Trumbo can just be his career norm hot first half hitter it will be a win. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

So 450 OPS post all star break for Trumbo this season?  I'd have to think even Buck would bench Trumbo at that point.  

At this point if Trumbo can just be his career norm hot first half hitter it will be a win. 

I don't think he can sink as low as 450.  He was at 600 last year.

[interloper]

The curse of the DH role is that people can say "you have one job!" At least with Davis, you're getting solid defense. There's nowhere to hide if you're a DH who can't hit.