Erbe is doing it again!

[AVencill]

Frobby, the game on June 3 he started, but a hour-plus long rain delay nixed him from coming back. That's why he only lasted an inning and came back on I think 3 days rest to push Arrieta back another day when he was hurt.

[itsernst]

I was at the game too. He did hit one batter in addition to the single' date=' but those were the only baserunners, and I think only two other people hit the ball out of the infield with a couple flyouts.

I was disappointed I didn't get to see more from Wieters. They were definitely pitching around him. I think he had two four-pitch walks. When he flipped around to the right side against the lefty in his last at-bat, I was really hoping to see him crush one.

The only real bad part of the night was seeing the opposing starter get hit by a line drive. It sure looked like it got him in the face, but when he came off the field, he didn't seem to be bleeding, so maybe it didn't get him as badly as I thought.[/quote']

Great to hear about Erbe; He definitely looks good. It goes to show Weiters needs to move up, if they are pitching around him, it is if anything, detrimental to his development.

[Mark J]

Actually, Arrieta leads the league with 82 K's.

While Erbe surely has shown how dominant he can be when he's on his game, his challege is to avoid the games where he is way off. He had a very good beginning of the year, and there was a lot of talk about how he had smoohted out his delivery and gained better command and consistency. The he reeled off 4 terrible outings in 5 appearances. Now he has been dominant to pretty good over his last 7 starts, with 1 or 2 exceptions (2.73 ERA in those 7 starts). If he can just reduce the number of games where he goes walkabout, he can really be something special.

1st 5 starts: 29.2 IP, 20 H, 10 R, 9 ER, 6 BB, 27 K's, 2.73 ERA

2nd 5 starts: 23.0 IP, 33 H, 22 R, 20 ER, 5 BB, 22 K's, 7.83 ERA

3rd 5 starts: 26.0 IP, 16 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 8 BB, 31 K's, 2.77 ERA

By the way, what happened on June 3? He appears to have started that game, but only pitched one inning. Rain delay? That's the reason his IP over the last 5 starts appear a bit low.

I wonder what his BABIP was during the 2nd 5 starts. Is it possible he just got a little (OK a lot) unlucky during that stretch or was he getting shelled? The reason I ask is that his K/BB & K/9 still looked very solid.

[NCRaven]

His only weakness seems to be homeruns and hits allowed. He has 10/69 vs. Arrieta's 4/50. They've both pitched in virtually the same number of innings (79.1 and 78.2) and have identical WHIPs of 1.12. Erbe has walked far fewer with 19 vs. 39 for Arrieta. But that means he's given up more hits and it turns out that more of those hits have been home runs. That has translated into a 6-5 record vs. 5-2 for Arrieta (I don't know the team won-loss record in their starts) and a 4.23 ERA for Erbe vs. 2.72 for Arrieta.

Debunking my least favorite truism - "a walk is as good as a hit." Total BS. I agree that OBP was traditionally undervalued compared to BA, but given a choice between a "hit," which includes doubles, triples, and homeruns, and a walk, I would always take the hit. They do things that walks can't do, like:

advance a runner from 1st to 3rd (or even home on a double),

score a runner from second or third (heck with a runner on third and less than two outs, a long flyball out is better than a walk),

clear the bases in the case of a triple or home run

score the batter in the case of a home run

Walks have value, but if two players have identical OBPs of say .350, I'll take the guy with a .300 BA over the guy with a .250 BA and more walks.

[AVencill]

During those three outings that everyone (including myself) look on as being horrible, I remember Erbe saying that his control was off and he was leaving his pitches up more in the zone, leading to more flyballs, flyouts, and of course, the flyouts that travel over the wall.

If you take away those three outings (and I'm on a quick break at work right now to look this up), his numbers are certainly on par with the top prospects in the system. Three real bad outings in 13 or 14 starts aren't that bad IMO -- especially when you're dealing with a very mature 20 year old in Erbe. I think if he did not have those bad outings, he'd be joining Arrieta as two of the pitchers that make up the CL All-Star team.

[jamesenoch]

From today's BA's Prospects' Blog :

Carolina League

Prospect of the Day

It’s hard to find a hotter pitcher than Brandon Erbe (Orioles). Erbe tossed a gem yesterday, throwing seven innings of one-hit ball. The 6-foot-4 righthander earned the win, striking out 12 batters, walking none, and at one point retiring 19 in a row. Erbe has now allowed one hit and two walks in his last 14 innings while he’s struck out 21.

[theonestevewh]

During those three outings that everyone (including myself) look on as being horrible, I remember Erbe saying that his control was off and he was leaving his pitches up more in the zone, leading to more flyballs, flyouts, and of course, the flyouts that travel over the wall.

If you take away those three outings (and I'm on a quick break at work right now to look this up), his numbers are certainly on par with the top prospects in the system. Three real bad outings in 13 or 14 starts aren't that bad IMO -- especially when you're dealing with a very mature 20 year old in Erbe. I think if he did not have those bad outings, he'd be joining Arrieta as two of the pitchers that make up the CL All-Star team.

Without those three starts (5/2, 5/7, 5/12), Erbe has the following stats:

12 GS, 6 W, 3 L, 2.73 ERA, 66 IP, 48 H, 20 ER, 14 BB, 68 SO

[hoosiers]

Without those three starts (5/2, 5/7, 5/12), Erbe has the following stats:

12 GS, 6 W, 3 L, 2.73 ERA, 66 IP, 48 H, 20 ER, 14 BB, 68 SO

Nice stats, but a little funny looking. He's striking out better than one batter an inning here, giving up less than a baserunner per inning, but still seems to be giving up one run every three innings.

[stef]

Per roch's blog:

"Returning to the farm, I noted yesterday that Single-A Frederick’s Brandon Erbe has allowed one hit and struck out 21 in his last two starts covering 14 innings. Now here’s a possible reason for it:

Erbe’s slider has been his dominant pitch during his last two outings. Pitching coach Blaine Beatty changed Erbe’s grip on the pitch exactly two starts ago.

Coincidence?

Also, Erbe has been told to abandon his slow curveball for now, and he's really taken off.

Just thought you might find that interesting."

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/sports/roch/blog/

[caljr]

This is awesome news! Sometimes, one little adjustment can make a world of difference in a pitcher... ie. Jim Johnson.

I can't wait for his next start. If he has another dominant performance, I say put him in AA and see what he can do there.

[Bmo24Ph]

I've heard some conflicting reports on his velocity, so how hard does he really throw?

[AVencill]

Erbe's velocity sits between 92-94 right now, and he can zip it up to 95 and 96 when need be. He's certainly not throwing as hard as last year, but he's saving his shoulder a lot of damage in the process. I'm certainly fine with 92-94, and trust me, there's no need to worry about his velocity.

Also, what Roch failed to add in his blog is that Erbe has taken the curveball away, throwing more sliders with this new grip. So far, I'm a fan of the changes

[Crazysilver03]

Erbe's velocity sits between 92-94 right now, and he can zip it up to 95 and 96 when need be. He's certainly not throwing as hard as last year, but he's saving his shoulder a lot of damage in the process. I'm certainly fine with 92-94, and trust me, there's no need to worry about his velocity.

Also, what Roch failed to add in his blog is that Erbe has taken the curveball away, throwing more sliders with this new grip. So far, I'm a fan of the changes

Erbe’s slider has been his dominant pitch during his last two outings. Pitching coach Blaine Beatty changed Erbe’s grip on the pitch exactly two starts ago.

Coincidence?

Also, Erbe has been told to abandon his slow curveball for now, and he's really taken off.

That was in the latest entry.

[Frobby]

This is awesome news! Sometimes, one little adjustment can make a world of difference in a pitcher... ie. Jim Johnson.

I can't wait for his next start. If he has another dominant performance, I say put him in AA and see what he can do there.

2 great starts is not a reason to promote a pitcher. Plus, there's no room in Bowie's rotation right now, and if there was, it would probably be Arrieta who would be the first one promoted (although, a case could be made that Erbe is just as good based on his superior K/BB ratio and Arrieta's recent dip from stellar to merely very good during the last 3 weeks).

Erbe's velocity sits between 92-94 right now, and he can zip it up to 95 and 96 when need be. He's certainly not throwing as hard as last year, but he's saving his shoulder a lot of damage in the process. I'm certainly fine with 92-94, and trust me, there's no need to worry about his velocity.

Also, what Roch failed to add in his blog is that Erbe has taken the curveball away, throwing more sliders with this new grip. So far, I'm a fan of the changes

That is fascinating, because Erbe has a knee-buckling curve. Do you think this is intended as a long-run change in his repetoire, or is it something they've done just for now to help him focus on keep his pitches down in the zone?

[stef]

Do you think this is intended as a long-run change in his repetoire, or is it something they've done just for now to help him focus on keep his pitches down in the zone?

Maybe it's the latter... according to Roch's blog "Erbe has been told to abandon his slow curveball for now."