Phillies aggressively lock up prospect Kingery

[Frobby]

28 minutes ago, weams said:

For 50 million? No. And you are right. It was after he got hurt I think. 

It was at the start of the 2016 season.    He missed the first half of 2015.    So, he had two years of service time and 1.5 years of playing time under his belt.

 

[Frobby]

Just to give another comparison, the Rangers extended Rougned Odor when he’d been playing for 3 years and had a bit less than 3 years of service.    That deal guaranteed him $21 mm for his remaining 4 years under team control and had three options at $12.3, $12.3 and $13 mm.   So, Kingery’s deal is more lucrative than Odor’s, even though Odor was coming off a 2.5 WAR season at age 22, which is younger than Kingery was last year in the minors (23).    

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Team options for the following 3 years are included. 13, 14, and 15 million. I’m guessing 6 years down the road, those will be considered cheap as long as he’s an average starter.

It's considered cheap now for a 2 win guy.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Just to give another comparison, the Rangers extended Rougned Odor when he’d been playing for 3 years and had a bit less than 3 years of service.    That deal guaranteed him $21 mm for his remaining 4 years under team control and had three options at $12.3, $12.3 and $13 mm.   So, Kingery’s deal is more lucrative than Odor’s, even though Odor was coming off a 2.5 WAR season at age 22, which is younger than Kingery was last year in the minors (24).    

Right, as deals of this nature go this one isn't a huge bargain for the team.

And right now the Odor deal isn't looking that great for the team (sub-replacement season).

[Frobby]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Right, as deals of this nature go this one isn't a huge bargain for the team.

And right now the Odor deal isn't looking that great for the team (sub-replacement season).

Odor stunk last year.   (See what I did there?)

The more I think about this Kingery deal, I think it’s questionable.    He’s not particularly young for a guy who hasn’t played in the majors, so assuming he’s on the team without any MiL time the next six years, his three option years will be at ages 30-32.    For whatever reason, a lot of 2B don’t age well.     This deal can be a win for Philly if he’s a very good player, but I don’t like the risk reward ratio.    But, they’re closer to the situation and must really believe in him.  He does have a 1.141 OPS this spring...

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Odor stunk last year.   (See what I did there?)

The more I think about this Kingery deal, I think it’s questionable.    He’s not particularly young for a guy who hasn’t played in the majors, so assuming he’s on the team without any MiL time the next six years, his three option years will be at ages 30-32.    For whatever reason, a lot of 2B don’t age well.     This deal can be a win for Philly if he’s a very good player, but I don’t like the risk reward ratio.    But, they’re closer to the situation and must really believe in him.  He does have a 1.141 OPS this spring...

I think you are underestimating the value of a win a bit.

If he's a ML regular (2 wins) the deal is a solid value.  If he declines early, they stop picking up options.

The Phillies can afford to eat the whole thing if it comes to that.

If he's a very good player (3-5 wins/year?).  The deal is very good for the team.

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

The Phillies have signed 2B prospect Scott Kingery to a 6 year, 24M deal, with team options for what would be his first 3 FA years. All said and done, it could be a 9 year deal for a player who hasn’t had a single MLB AB.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/03/phillies-sign-scott-kingery-to-long-term-deal.html

I posted this here because this would be similar to what it’d take to lock up Hays. Would that be a worthwhile risk?

It is a bet by the player against himself in the sense that while it does provide him with considerable security,  it also markedly reduces the earnings he would obtain if he is successful.     For the team, they are in a stronger position with these deals in general, imho in their bet that he will be successful enough that the additional years will be very valuable versus the possibility that he flames out. 

 

I would do the same with young Mr. Hays and with Trey Mancini and Dylan Bundy.  And it goes without saying I would have done it with Manny and Jonathan.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think you are underestimating the value of a win a bit.

If he's a ML regular (2 wins) the deal is a solid value.  If he declines early, they stop picking up options.

The Phillies can afford to eat the whole thing if it comes to that.

If he's a very good player (3-5 wins/year?).  The deal is very good for the team.

As discussed in some other Schoop threads, for whatever reason 2B doesn’t seem to pay very well.    Of course I can do the math and figure a $13 mm option theoretically pays for itself if he’s a 1.6 WAR/season player, but the market doesn’t seem to work that way at 2B.   For example, Kinsler signed a 5/$85 mm deal after being worth 30 WAR in his first 7 seasons and being a three-time all star.

[Enjoy Terror]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

No way you get Machado for 6/24 with three team options.

Schoop might have bit on that.

Well not now. Before his rookie season like Kingery. He might’ve done it.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Well not now. Before his rookie season like Kingery. He might’ve done it.

Sure, not now.

I meant then.

And honestly I don't think it would have taken 6/24.

Maybe 6/18.

[interloper]

File this under: Things I hope the Orioles start doing at some point, but am not holding my breath for.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

Did they lock up Rhys Hoskins too?

I can understand why they did it, but it's a big risk for someone who hasn't played a single MLB inning. 

[POR]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

Odor stunk last year.   (See what I did there?)

The more I think about this Kingery deal, I think it’s questionable.    He’s not particularly young for a guy who hasn’t played in the majors, so assuming he’s on the team without any MiL time the next six years, his three option years will be at ages 30-32.    For whatever reason, a lot of 2B don’t age well.     This deal can be a win for Philly if he’s a very good player, but I don’t like the risk reward ratio.    But, they’re closer to the situation and must really believe in him.  He does have a 1.141 OPS this spring...

I am looking at this completely differently. The risk reward is very much in the Phillies favor.

First of all, based on how Kingery  looked in 2017 and this spring I think they are confident he is very good.  A scout this week said he was the best player in the Phillies camp.

However, if he ends up not amounting to anything the cost is really not that much in the scheme of a MLB team budget.  For six years they are paying a little more than they are paying Tommy Hunter for two years.  The Astros signed Jonathan Singleton to one of these contracts a few years ago.  He is not a major leaguer and Astros are still paying him but the consequences are minimal. 

On the other hand, if he is a good player or better they are going to save a bundle in his 7th, 8th and 9th year.  Just look at the Indians with Corey Kluber.

I think a factor in getting Kingery for agree to this contract is that he is going to begin the year in the majors.  He was going to the minors for the start of the season without this contract.  Also it is a win for their fans who are excited to see him in the majors. 

  

 

 

[BohKnowsBmore]

16 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

No way you get Machado for 6/24 with three team options.

Schoop might have bit on that.

Particularly because Machado was the #3 overall pick and had substantial bonus money to fall back on (I have no idea what his financial planning situation is/was).

Kingery apparently got a $1.26MM bonus, though, so it's not like he was necessarily in the situation where the team had all of the leverage in offering financial security.

[incubus]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

Is it?   Schoop has made $14 mm with one year of team control remaining.  Let’s assume Schoop makes $13 mm next year, that’s a total of $27 mm.    Kingery is now guaranteed 90% of that, before playing a major league game.   This for a guy who is a no. 30ish prospect.     If he has to spend a bit more time in the minors, or gets hurt sometime in the next five years, this could turn out badly for Philly.    They’re gambling that he’s a Schoop level player who can stay healthy.    It will be interesting to follow this one over the next several years.   

Yeah but on top of that, imagine having the ability to sign Schoop for an additional 3 years on top of that.