What could you get for Kevin Gausman?

[Lucky_13]

If the team decides to do a fire sale, what could the return be like for Gausman? 

He is arbitration eligible through 2020 and seems to be putting it together this season. With Machado being only a rental I feel like moving Gausman would accelerate the rebuild. 

[wildcard]

What we would probably get is the wish that we never traded him.

[vab]

I don't know that Gausman is capable of pitching much better than he has so far this year and he's still giving up more hits than innings pitched and his ERA is 4.31. That's fine but certainly not the numbers of an untouchable guy. With the amount of time he has before free agency I think the return for him could be really solid. I'd certainly be listening to offers.
 

[jjnono]

9 minutes ago, vab said:

I don't know that Gausman is capable of pitching much better than he has so far this year and he's still giving up more hits than innings pitched and his ERA is 4.31. That's fine but certainly not the numbers of an untouchable guy. With the amount of time he has before free agency I think the return for him could be really solid. I'd certainly be listening to offers.
 

Agreed; you have to consider all offers.  Gausman certainly shouldn't be considered untouchable... No one should. 

[clapdiddy]

I've been thinking that Gausman could be a great addition to a Machado trade.   I'm not sure what team could use a starter AND a SS, but adding Gausman could bring back a much bigger haul.

[wildcard]

21 minutes ago, vab said:

I don't know that Gausman is capable of pitching much better than he has so far this year and he's still giving up more hits than innings pitched and his ERA is 4.31. That's fine but certainly not the numbers of an untouchable guy. With the amount of time he has before free agency I think the return for him could be really solid. I'd certainly be listening to offers.
 

I don't know why you would say that Gausman can't be better than he pitched this year. In 2016 he had a 3.61 ERA in 30 starts and 179 IP.    Maybe if the O's had more range in the defense all the O's pitchers would look a lot better.   That is why I am looking forward to seeing Mullins, McKenna, and Hays in the majors in the next year.   And if the O's are going to trade Manny, Britton, Jones and Brach in the next two months don't you think that getting a couple of rangy SS and 3B  that can hit are high on their list of needs.

[Lucky_13]

5 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

I've been thinking that Gausman could be a great addition to a Machado trade.   I'm not sure what team could use a starter AND a SS, but adding Gausman could bring back a much bigger haul.

If the Braves are interested in Manny like some speculate, Gausman could be an upgrade over Annibal Sanchez (though he's done okay for them in three starts)

They have a pretty deep farm too. 

[ChrisP]

Could we get a top 20 prospect in Milb?

[Frobby]

Gausman’s a decent MOR starter, but I don’t think any trade partner would see him as more than that.   I’d expect him to have less trade value than Sonny Gray had last season, for example.     

Gausman (as of now): 2.6 years of service remaining, 704 IP, 100 ERA+ (98 ERA+ this year)

Gray (as of last year’s trade): 2.3 years of service remaining, 705 IP, 114 ERA+ (123 ERA+ last year when traded).

Gray brought back James Kaprielian (BA # 87 last year but had TJ surgery before the trade), Jorge Mateo (BA # 85) and Dustin Fowler (22 year old OF with an .871 OPS in AAA but .769 in MiL career).

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Gausman’s a decent MOR starter, but I don’t think any trade partner would see him as more than that.   I’d expect him to have less trade value than Sonny Gray had last season, for example.     

Gausman (as of now): 2.6 years of service remaining, 704 IP, 100 ERA+ (98 ERA+ this year)

Gray (as of last year’s trade): 2.3 years of service remaining, 705 IP, 114 ERA+ (123 ERA+ last year when traded).

Gray brought back James Kaprielian (BA # 87 last year but had TJ surgery before the trade), Jorge Mateo (BA # 85) and Dustin Fowler (22 year old OF with an .871 OPS in AAA but .769 in MiL career).

Which goes to the point that the O's will wish they never traded him.

[Bdog0221]

2 hours ago, vab said:

I don't know that Gausman is capable of pitching much better than he has so far this year and he's still giving up more hits than innings pitched and his ERA is 4.31. That's fine but certainly not the numbers of an untouchable guy. With the amount of time he has before free agency I think the return for him could be really solid. I'd certainly be listening to offers.
 

This. Sell while he has some value. I'd hate to see the investment portfolios of the Orioles brain trust if they buy and sell stocks like they handle players. Putting more and more money into declining players and not being able to truly assess talent while it's still inexpensive. Overvaluing declining talent seems to be what they do as well.

[LookitsPuck]

Kevin Gausman 3 year footprint prior to this season:

4.17 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 4.25 FIP, 9.4 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 8.6 SO/9

Kevin Gausman this year:

4.31 ERA, 1.376 WHIP, 4.44 FIP, 10.0 H/9, 1.5 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 8.2 SO/9

Pretty damn consistent. 

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Which goes to the point that the O's will wish they never traded him.

I actually don't think that would be a bad haul for Gausman today, even with AAA kicking Mateo's butt so far. 

Regardless, there could be the opportunity this July 31 for him to be positioned as the best SP option available if Tampa stays close enough to Seattle to hang on to Archer (or he stays off the rails), and he outpitches Hamels and Duffy.  None of the last place NL teams have a piece like him, and none of the other 12 are out of it yet.  The AL superpowers probably don't care much about having him, except maybe the Yankees, but between them and 80% of the National League he could attract a wide array of bidders if available and that would be a good position to be in. 

Alex Anthopoulos probably learned his lesson giving up Syndergaard to rent RA Dickey, but if he didn't the Braves have lots of young pitchers who aren't ready to help them this year like Gausman could.

[wildbillhiccup]

Gausman shouldn't be off limits. I think he could fetch a solid return. The Rockies have been linked to him for a few years and the Brewers could definitely use him too. Right now I'd say the Brewers are the best match for a Gausman trade. They have a 2B prospect, Keston Hiura, who is a top 50 prospect overall. They were also shopping Domingo Santana (still relatively young) in the offseason, but his stock seems to have fallen quite a bit because he's struggled this season. That's probably who the Brewers would initially offer for Gausman. 

Watch

Scouting grades: Hit: 65 | Power: 50 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55

The Brewers landed arguably the top college hitter in the 2017 Draft in Hiura, whom they selected ninth overall after he led NCAA Division I hitters with a .442 average as a Cal Irvine junior. Although a right elbow injury limited him to designated hitter duties and portended eventual surgery, the Brewers, undeterred by Hiura's injury, were thrilled to add him to their system, signing Hiura for below slot value at $4 million. He immediately rewarded his new club with an outstanding pro debut, highlighted by an impressive performance after a promotion to Class A Wisconsin, and then returned to the field in earnest during instructional league.

Hiura has a short, impactful right-handed stroke with a ton of bat speed and outstanding feel for the barrel. He projects to hit for a high average and shows at least average in-game power, with the ball coming off of his bat differently than most to all fields. Though not a basestealing threat, Hiura does possess average speed and earns high marks for his baserunning and awareness.

A post-Draft MRI led the Brewers to believe that Hiura could make a successful recovery without needing surgery. He did just that, completing a throwing program in Rookie ball before appearing in games at second base without issue during instructs. He's a passable defender at the keystone, where he has decent actions and footwork, though some believe he's ultimately destined for left field. Regardless of his future defensive home, Hiura's potent bat is his calling card to a lengthy career in the Majors.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I actually don't think that would be a bad haul for Gausman today, even with AAA kicking Mateo's butt so far. 

Regardless, there could be the opportunity this July 31 for him to be positioned as the best SP option available if Tampa stays close enough to Seattle to hang on to Archer (or he stays off the rails), and he outpitches Hamels and Duffy.  None of the last place NL teams have a piece like him, and none of the other 12 are out of it yet.  The AL superpowers probably don't care much about having him, except maybe the Yankees, but between them and 80% of the National League he could attract a wide array of bidders if available and that would be a good position to be in. 

Alex Anthopoulos probably learned his lesson giving up Syndergaard to rent RA Dickey, but if he didn't the Braves have lots of young pitchers who aren't ready to help them this year like Gausman could.

But have the O's learned their lesson about trading away pitchers that later come back to bite them.   Arrieta, Davies, Hader  and Bridwell anyone?