Olney and Ravech: O's are hemorrhaging Machado's trade value

[Hallas]

19 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The problem is a near ML ready prospect that is highly regarded has just a TON of value.  Just gobs and gobs of value.  At 8.5M a win a three win pitcher (a #3 guy) is going to produce 75 million in surplus value in just the first three years. 

The number of players that actually produce 9 wins in their first 3 full seasons is quite small.  Since past performance doesn’t have a 100% correlation with future value especially for pitchers, even a highly polished pitcher prospect will likely only be valued at 60% of that.  A hitter, probably 75%.  So that pitcher that you think is a 3 WAR pitcher becomes worth around 45 million.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, clapdiddy said:

They'll figure it all out a few minutes after the trading deadline because they didn't file paperwork that had been sitting on Angelos' desk.

 

Unfortunately the trade deadline will come in the middle of Peter's nap time.  

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Hallas said:

The number of players that actually produce 9 wins in their first 3 full seasons is quite small.  Since past performance doesn’t have a 100% correlation with future value especially for pitchers, even a highly polished pitcher prospect will likely only be valued at 60% of that.  A hitter, probably 75%.  So that pitcher that you think is a 3 WAR pitcher becomes worth around 45 million.

I didn't even factor in the 3+ other years or the other pieces that would have to change hands.  Of course the salary shed by trading Machado also has worth.

We do agree that Angelos isn't going to agree to a 1-1 deal right?

Two months of Machado isn't worth a top tier guy + the numbers needed to make Peter happy, not unless a team really does get desperate and overpays.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

Do you make this up?  If not, how do you know it is true?  It's like calling a person incompetent without even knowing for a fact what he does and does not do.  And, no, "everybody" doesn't know what Brady tells Angelos.

Sounds like it'd be pretty close to what's going on. 

[Mondo Trasho]

I'm willing to bet my entire investment portfolio Machado doesn't get traded.

[DocJJ]

Sounds like clickbait to me.    If there are 2-3 playoff contenders at the deadline who could obtain Machado to put them over the top and they are vying for his services, it seems to me he'd have more value around the trade deadline than now.

Not sure I agree with the "hemorrhaging value" baloney...   Maybe Ravich was hired by a potential trade partner to say that to lower the price...

[sportsfan8703]

What about the value of teams blocking other teams from getting him?  Lots of factors at the deadline. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, NCRaven said:

I would be worried that they are right except that most trades actually are made in the week before the trade deadline.  I can see both sides of the argument for trading a position player now and for trying to build a market with more teams in on Manny as we get closer.  Just hope that they realize there really isn't a perfect deal out there at this point.

Probably be smart to go see Manny next week if you are sentimental. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, weams said:

Probably be smart to go see Manny next week if you are sentimental. 

Thank goodness I'm not.

[weams]

25 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

Sounds like clickbait to me.    If there are 2-3 playoff contenders at the deadline who could obtain Machado to put them over the top and they are vying for his services, it seems to me he'd have more value around the trade deadline than now.

Not sure I agree with the "hemorrhaging value" baloney...   Maybe Ravich was hired by a potential trade partner to say that to lower the price...

I heard Philly was really after him at this point. On a radio show. 

[weams]

1 hour ago, Hallas said:

The number of players that actually produce 9 wins in their first 3 full seasons is quite small.  Since past performance doesn’t have a 100% correlation with future value especially for pitchers, even a highly polished pitcher prospect will likely only be valued at 60% of that.  A hitter, probably 75%.  So that pitcher that you think is a 3 WAR pitcher becomes worth around 45 million.

I think it would be impossible to trade for a package that will produce half of Manny's WAR over their control. 

[bpilktree67]

I think there is very little difference in trading him in June or July.  Just two years ago the Cubs has interest in Chapman they were reluctant to deal their top prospect Torres.  Then a series with the lowly White Sox happened and the Cubs bullpen blew 2 games in a weekend series.  Monday afternoon the Yanks and Cubs agreed and Torres was included in the trade.    The Tigers and Braves were talking deadline deal and Braves GM wanted a young hard throwing minor leaguer that Tigers didn’t want to move.  After talking for awhile at the deadline the Tigers gave in while the Braves got some guy named Smoltz who seemed to be a decent pitcher over his career

The Mariners wanted bullpen help in the 90s and after tough losses decided to make a move for Red Sox closer. They gave away Jason Varitek for a guy who struggled when he came over.

Machado for two months or three make little difference to the team that gets him wants him for the playoffs series more then just sliding in wild card same way with Chapman.  The Cubs has all but wrapped up the division and dominating NL.  He made the difference in the playoffs not regular season.  Yanks are going with or without Machado, same with Sox same with Indians same with Astros.  The NL is more open but most agree Cubs will be in it, Nats will be in it, and ifDodgerd get healthy they will too.

[SteveA]

1 minute ago, weams said:

I think it would be impossible to trade for a package that will produce half of Manny's WAR over their control. 

Well, not IMPOSSIBLE.   All you have to do is get one good pitching prospect who puts up about 15 WAR, and then happen to get as a throw in a 62nd round pick who becomes the next Mike Piazza.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Well, not IMPOSSIBLE.   All you have to do is get one good pitching prospect who puts up about 15 WAR, and then happen to get as a throw in a 62nd round pick who becomes the next Mike Piazza.

Angelos would veto the deal.

[weams]

13 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Well, not IMPOSSIBLE.   All you have to do is get one good pitching prospect who puts up about 15 WAR, and then happen to get as a throw in a 62nd round pick who becomes the next Mike Piazza.

They would have to give Mike-like his medications. And treat his bacne.