Kevin Goldstein's Chat 7/7/08

[furryburres]

Ward (Bowie): Kevin, It's been a real treat for us BaySox fans to have Tillman and now Wieters. Should we expect Jake Arrieta to be up soon too, or do you think the O's will they let him finish the year in High A? I know you are a BIG Tilman fan, is the gap narrowing between the two?

Kevin Goldstein: I think you'll definitely see Arrieta at some point during the season's second half. He's a polished college product, and with make than a strikeout per inning and an opponent's average of .204, he's got nothing left to prove in Hi-A. That said, I don't think he's in Tillman's league, and think the gap is pretty much the same as it was going into the year -- sizeable.

rhm (tampa): Better top 4: Price/Beckham/Hellickson/Davis or Wieters/Matusz/Tillman/Arrieta?

Kevin Goldstein: Tampa -- it's not even CLOSE.

TomG (Salem): Am I being a bit optimistic or has Chris Tillman pitched his way into being a Top-25 prospect next year?

Kevin Goldstein: I think you are being a bit optimistic, but at the same time, I think it really is just 'a bit'. You could make a legitimate arguement for it.

Corkedbat (Dallas): Thinking of Billy Rowell, what usually motivates a guy in the minors to improve (other than to get to the show)? What usually deters improvement? Is this normal for a first rounder?

Kevin Goldstein: I don't think there is any one answer to that, as every guy is different. That said, scouts are VERY down on Rowell and see very little effort, especially on the defensive side.

Very interesting. Not really though.

[baltimoriole]

Wow, that is terribly disappointing about Rowell. 1st he's arrogant, 2nd he shows no effort, 3rd he's hitting near the mendoza line, and 4th Tim Lincecum went 10th in the draft, one selection after Rowell, and Lincecum is a bona-fide ace, a legitimate #1 starter.

[Stotle]

Yeah, Davis has been a MONSTER this year with the Biscuits (AA):

ERA - 4.14

WHIP - 1.34

SO/BB - 69-39

Hellickson has solid stuff but is undersized.

Price is a S.T.U.D.

Beckham has a great tool-set; who knows what it turns into.

I'd give the sligtest nod to TAM, as well, since I believe Davis isn't as bad as he's pitched this year. To say it's not even "CLOSE" is hyperbole that serves no one if you're providing analysis and info.

[eb45]

I have to take issue with his assessment of Price/Beckham/Hellickson/Davis over Wieters/Matusz/Tillman/Arrieta.

Price has been incredible for TB, but more so than Wieters? Wieters being a catcher, and a solid one, is also a point in his favor. I could go either way on this one. Not "not even CLOSE", though.

I was a slightly vocal T-Beck critic before the draft. He has done nothing to change that in his short time playing professionally. Matusz is more polished, coming out of college. He's a better bet to reach his potential than Beckham. While it may be slightly lower, he was still only three slots lower, and again, Beckham is a roll of the dice. I give this one to the O's.

Hellickson is a full year older than Tillman, though he has dominated far more than Tillman has (an absurd 16.6:1 K/BB ratio in A+ this year). If Tillman was left in A+ this year and next, though, would he be dominating like Hellickson has? Perhaps. We can't be sure of it, especially since Hellickson still has the better track record, but he's been great in AA, and A+ is a pretty significant step down. Hellickson's ridiculous track record gets him the nod here, but it's still close.

Davis/Arrieta is an interesting comp. Arrieta is six months younger than Davis, and has been better at A+ than Davis has been at AA. I'll give this one to Davis, since he's further along, but again, it's very close. If Arrieta performs in Bowie like he has in Frederick, he could very well win this one.

Overall, it's very close. I'll take Matusz/Wieters over Price/Beckham. Hellickson has been downright ridiculous throughout his career, which, along with Davis' rapid advancement, is what gives Tampa the nod from me. But this is very, very close.

[hoosiers]

Overall, it's very close. I'll take Matusz/Wieters over Price/Beckham.

Come on! What is this.

TB took the consensus top talent in each of the past two drafts and we have better?

Pass the pipe when you are done.

[Lucky Jim]

Come on! What is this.

TB took the consensus top talent in each of the past two drafts and we have better?

Pass the pipe when you are done.

While I agree to a point, it's not so emphatic. Wieters was the consensus top position player in the draft and Matusz the consensus top pitcher. Price was the consensus top player, of course. Beckham was more of a toss-up, no?

[Stotle]

I have to take issue with his assessment of Price/Beckham/Hellickson/Davis over Wieters/Matusz/Tillman/Arrieta.

Price has been incredible for TB, but more so than Wieters? Wieters being a catcher, and a solid one, is also a point in his favor. I could go either way on this one. Not "not even CLOSE", though.

I was a slightly vocal T-Beck critic before the draft. He has done nothing to change that in his short time playing professionally. Matusz is more polished, coming out of college. He's a better bet to reach his potential than Beckham. While it may be slightly lower, he was still only three slots lower, and again, Beckham is a roll of the dice. I give this one to the O's.

Hellickson is a full year older than Tillman, though he has dominated far more than Tillman has (an absurd 16.6:1 K/BB ratio in A+ this year). If Tillman was left in A+ this year and next, though, would he be dominating like Hellickson has? Perhaps. We can't be sure of it, especially since Hellickson still has the better track record, but he's been great in AA, and A+ is a pretty significant step down. Hellickson's ridiculous track record gets him the nod here, but it's still close.

Davis/Arrieta is an interesting comp. Arrieta is six months younger than Davis, and has been better at A+ than Davis has been at AA. I'll give this one to Davis, since he's further along, but again, it's very close. If Arrieta performs in Bowie like he has in Frederick, he could very well win this one.

Overall, it's very close. I'll take Matusz/Wieters over Price/Beckham. Hellickson has been downright ridiculous throughout his career, which, along with Davis' rapid advancement, is what gives Tampa the nod from me. But this is very, very close.

I think the useful comparisons would have to be

Price vs. Matusz (Price)

Wieters vs. Beckham (close -- Wieters if you believe he can stay at C, otherwise Beckham)

Hellickson vs. Arrieta (Hellickson)

Davis vs. Tillman (as of today, Tillman)

I think TAM has an edge if for no other reason than Hellickson and Price are pretty far ahead of their counterparts, while Wieters and Tillman would have very slight edges over their counterparts.

As always, just my take.

[Frobby]

I think the useful comparisons would have to be

Wieters vs. Beckham (close -- Wieters if you believe he can stay at C, otherwise Beckham)

What earthly reason is there to think Wieters cannot stay at C? He's supposed to be terrific defensively and all the offensive numbers he has put up in college and in the minors have been while playing C.

[Lucky Jim]

What earthly reason is there to think Wieters cannot stay at C? He's supposed to be terrific defensively and all the offensive numbers he has put up in college and in the minors have been while playing C.

Size/body/Joe Mauer. My guess.

[Gurgi]

While I agree to a point, it's not so emphatic. Wieters was the consensus top position player in the draft and Matusz the consensus top pitcher. Price was the consensus top player, of course. Beckham was more of a toss-up, no?

Yep. This is correct.

[NoVaO]

I'm going to agree with the people that say it actually is close.

Yes Price > Matusz as Price has an upside of a #1, Matusz is more of an upside of a #2

Wieters > Beckham

-- Wieters is just destroying AA right now and as a catcher his bat carries just as much if not more value than a similar hitting shortstop though the defensive value of a shortstop is higher than that of a catcher.

Beckham, I've mentioned before, has some problems with his swing that he will have to fix. The tools, the bat speed, the sheer talent and athleticism are all there, but the mechanics of his swing and his overall polish are not high quality right now. His OPS is .493 in Rookie ball right now. Let him refine his swing before we put him on Wieter's level.

Hellickson > Arrieta

-- I give a slight edge to Hellickson because of his advantage in command and control. But I do think Arrieta has the better stuff and higher upside. I like Hellickson a lot, but Hellickson over Arrieta isn't a slam dunk.

Tillman > Davis

-- Tillman is 2.5 years younger at the same level, strikes out more batters, is more difficult to hit when contact is actually made, and the only thing different between the two is Davis producing a couple more GBs (46 - 43%), and walking a few less batters (12 - 9.3%).

Also notice Tillman's trendlines as the months have worn on. His K% has increased each month, while the BB% has lowered though he had the same trend last year and may just be a slow starter.

In any case, Goldstein is entitled to his opinion, but to say it isn't CLOSE is IMO wrong.

[hoosiers]

Goldstein is not the only one.

Entering the year, BA had

Price at 10 and Wieters as 12.

Davis at 17 and Tillman at 67

Beckham was drafted ahead of Matusz on merit.

That leaves Hellickson v JA - which consensus above gives to Hellickson.

Looks to me like it's the Rays across the board - comfortably so.

I like our prospects just fine, but let's be realistic.

[Stotle]

What earthly reason is there to think Wieters cannot stay at C? He's supposed to be terrific defensively and all the offensive numbers he has put up in college and in the minors have been while playing C.

He's Mauer's size and Mauer is already breaking down. Take a look at how many successful 6'5" catchers there are and how long they last...

[McNulty]

Yeah, Davis has been a MONSTER this year with the Biscuits (AA):

ERA - 4.14

WHIP - 1.34

SO/BB - 69-39

Hellickson has solid stuff but is undersized.

Price is a S.T.U.D.

Beckham has a great tool-set; who knows what it turns into.

I'd give the sligtest nod to TAM, as well, since I believe Davis isn't as bad as he's pitched this year. To say it's not even "CLOSE" is hyperbole that serves no one if you're providing analysis and info.

I thought the same thing and even submitted a comment about it. Not even close? What a joke. I think he said that simply because he's not the biggest fan of Arrieta.

[Stotle]

Goldstein is not the only one.

Entering the year, BA had

Price at 10 and Wieters as 12.

Davis at 17 and Tillman at 67

Beckham was drafted ahead of Matusz on merit.

That leaves Hellickson v JA - which consensus above gives to Hellickson.

Looks to me like it's the Rays across the board - comfortably so.

I like our prospects just fine, but let's be realistic.

Preseason rankings have little to do with this convo. A lot has changed since the year began. Tillman is performing very well at AA; Davis not so much.

Wieters is hitting the upper limits of his projections and is a top 5 MiL prospect at this point (and arguably top 3).

Further, draft order shouldn't be used as a definitive means of judging talent. I give the current edge to Hellickson over Arrieta by a fair amount.