Worksheet for Today's Thinking Fan

[weams]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/take-this-cheat-sheet-to-the-ballpark-to-decide-when-to-leave/

[TonySoprano]

WWDD
What Would @Dipper9 Do?

[Why Not?]

If you're only going to a baseball game to see which team wins, you're doing it wrong. 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Why Not? said:

If you're only going to a baseball game to see which team wins, you're doing it wrong. 

Amen, depending on the circumstances.    

I used to have a strict “never leave until the final out” policy, but now I make exceptions.   

[weams]

12 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

WWDD
What Would @Dipper9 Do?

The early exit cheat sheet
LEAVE AFTER THE    IF THE LEADER IS UP
1st inning    6 runs
2nd    6
3rd    5
4th    5
5th    4
6th    4
7th    3
8th    2
According to our statistical model, based on 2010-2015 regular season inning-by-inning scoring data,3 you should leave after the sixth inning if the leading team is ahead by four or more runs. There is a less than 5 percent chance that the other team will deliver a miracle comeback. If the run differential exceeds two at the top of the ninth, it’s safe to head to 

[Why Not?]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Amen, depending on the circumstances.    

I used to have a strict “never leave until the final out” policy, but now I make exceptions.   

Same here. I'll admit I have split before the final out on occasion for various reasons.

I just want to soak in every moment of being at a ballgame that I can. Assuming I have no immediate plans, I'll happily watch the last three innings of a 12-1 blowout. 

[foxfield]

41 minutes ago, weams said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/take-this-cheat-sheet-to-the-ballpark-to-decide-when-to-leave/

Well not to be too antagonistical, but the OP title is probably off by just a little.

 

1)  No thinking fan I know of leaves a game because it is already "decided".

2)  Anyone who would use this chart automatically can't be a "thinking fan"!

3)  If you have ever explained something unusual and unexpected as: "That's Baseball!"  You are probably a thinking fan and could care less about this chart.

4)  Using this chart misses 100% of all baseball late inning heroics.  

5)  Item #4 can be stated with 100% certainty.

6)  So, in conclusion, if I had to look at this sheet and predict it's usefulness, I would have named the OP:

 

Worksheet for todays Boston Redsox Fan!

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Why Not? said:

Same here. I'll admit I have split before the final out on occasion for various reasons.

I just want to soak in every moment of being at a ballgame that I can. Assuming I have no immediate plans, I'll happily watch the last three innings of a 12-1 blowout. 

I attended the 30-3 game and stayed for the entirety of the second game of the doubleheader as well.   Ended around 1 a.m. as I recall, and I had to get up around 4:30 a.m. to catch a plane.    But I’d never do that now.  

[Satyr3206]

It's been so long since I went to a ML game that not only would I stay until the final out, I might camp out and wait for the next game.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, TonySoprano said:

WWDD
What Would @Dipper9 Do?

I know there's a 100% chance of Dipper leaving early to a game that will be the turning point in the Orioles fortunes over the next 5 years to come!

[atomic]

The chart needs to add in when they stop serving beer.   Why would you leave a game when you can still get a cold beer. 

[Dipper9]

2 hours ago, TonySoprano said:

WWDD
What Would @Dipper9 Do?

I leave one game early...

[Dipper9]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

I know there's a 100% chance of Dipper leaving early to a game that will be the turning point in the Orioles fortunes over the next 5 years to come!

Friday night I stayed through an 80 minute rain delay, a 15 run barrage, a concert from Mrs Brach, and a fireworks show.  I did all this to make sure we could pull to within 30 games of the third place Rays!  Lol

[bobmc]

12 minutes ago, Dipper9 said:

Friday night I stayed through an 80 minute rain delay, a 15 run barrage, a concert from Mrs Brach, and a fireworks show.  I did all this to make sure we could pull to within 30 games of the third place Rays!  Lol

Humanup!  

[25 Nuggets]

You don't remember most of the games you went to where the lead holds up in the late innings.

You DO remember the games where the Orioles either come back from, or blow a big lead in the 9th.