An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

[Frobby]

I had to edit my prior answer.   FWIW, David Price is the top no. 1-drafted pitcher all time, at 37.1 rWAR, 29.2 of which accrued while still under his original 6+ years of team control.    The players ahead of him all time are ARod, Chipper Jones, Griffey, Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez, Strawberry and Baines.   Gonzalez and Baines fall behind Price when only looking at the years of team control.   

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I had to edit my prior answer.   FWIW, David Price is the top no. 1-drafted pitcher all time, at 37.1 rWAR, 29.2 of which accrued while still under his original 6+ years of team control.    The players ahead of him all time are ARod, Chipper Jones, Griffey, Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez, Strawberry and Baines.   Gonzalez and Baines fall behind Price when only looking at the years of team control.   

Thanks for doing the work.

To me that time period seems more relevant.

[jtschrei]

23 hours ago, hoosiers said:

Late to this party, but this article should really have its own thread. 

The article is excellent and, frankly, I have been waiting 10-15 years for it.  I have long pointed out that the worst Orioles hitting draft picks were old at the time of their draft - both Brian Bass (first round) and Corey Shafer (second round) - very early picks who did nothing but strikeout when playing against age appropriate competition.  Shafer was drafted out of HS and turned 20 in the December after his draft.  Shafer hit over .700 OPS just once - as a 21 year old in rookie ball (!) where hit .871.  Shafer only made it to Delmarva in his age 23 season and had an OPS under .500 in 20 games. 

Anyone who read the highly recommended book Outliers from Malcolm Gladwell is familiar with how bigger, older kids at early youth sports often show success (because they are bigger and older) and then receive the best training and play the best competition and how that early age and size advantage can last well into the teenage and pro sports levels.  It can be VERY difficult for younger kids to catch up.  So I am not surprised at the results in the article at all.

 I am somewhat incredulous that such an article is published AFTER the 2018 season given all the studies and metrics and the focus on analytics.  I have to think more than a couple franchises already knew the information in that article, but it is clear that many franchises, possibly a majority of franchises, likely did not.  I also think it is an astonishing failure of the scouting community for not adjusting for the impact of ages in what is recommended.  

Great post. It seems like the NBA figured this out long ago. The 22-year old All-American scoring 25 per game is not nearly the same prospect as a skinny 17-year old kid averaging 10 points per game. Anytime an NBA team drafts a college senior, I feel like that team is saying we need this college guy to be a role player. Anytime they draft the young kid, they are looking for a potential star. 

I wonder what Gladwell would say in response to Moneyball. Isn't one of the premises of moneyball that Beane looked for college seniors who could move quickly through the minors and provide value to the bullpen pretty quickly. 

[spiritof66]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I am curious to know if Witt is a name because of who his dad is.  I am sure that plays a part.  

Lots to happen between now and then.  I'm not sold on Witt but if he's the pick, so be it.  

My guess, and it's entirely a guess, is that it does help get you noticed, and might get you drafted when you wouldn't be if your name was, say, Lew Ford, and it might even move you up in the draft -- but it won't put you at or near the top of the draft class.

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Thanks for doing the work.

To me that time period seems more relevant.

Well, I’d say both are somewhat relevant.   Having the player gives a team a leg up on extending him, and also teams trading for the player may look at the potential for an extension as well.

[sevastras]

On 9/11/2018 at 1:10 PM, spiritof66 said:

My guess, and it's entirely a guess, is that it does help get you noticed, and might get you drafted when you wouldn't be if your name was, say, Lew Ford, and it might even move you up in the draft -- but it won't put you at or near the top of the draft class.

I wish Lew Ford Jr was the undeniable number one pick. That way, if the Orioles drafted him I could quit cheering for this team, or if they didn’t, we would all know that the direction of this team has a bright future for passing over the spawn of Satan himself. Of course we all know that there will never be a Lew Ford Jr because Lew Ford eats children and puppies. 

[Chromehill]

On ‎9‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 3:01 PM, jtschrei said:

Great post. It seems like the NBA figured this out long ago. The 22-year old All-American scoring 25 per game is not nearly the same prospect as a skinny 17-year old kid averaging 10 points per game. Anytime an NBA team drafts a college senior, I feel like that team is saying we need this college guy to be a role player. Anytime they draft the young kid, they are looking for a potential star. 

I wonder what Gladwell would say in response to Moneyball. Isn't one of the premises of moneyball that Beane looked for college seniors who could move quickly through the minors and provide value to the bullpen pretty quickly. 

I believe Beane's preference for drafting college players was because playing against major college competition was a more reliable indicator of their ability compared to the level of competition for the high school kids.  A big part of that would be the players are more physically developed.  With the college kids, Beane could better rely on stats than on the Scouts when evaluating the high school kids.  He didn't trust the scouts.  With Oakland being a very low budget team, Beane thought it very risky to give big money to high school kids.

The book was published in 2004, been a few years since I read it. 

[Chromehill]

Adding to my post above, the book focused on Beane's reaction to the scouting drafting Jeremy Bonderman a high school pitcher in the first round in 2001, he hated it.  Hated it so much that Beane took 7 college players in the 2002 draft in the first round (they had 7 picks in the first round including supplemental picks).  A big focus of the book was on Nick Swisher, Joe Blanton and Jeremy Brown a catcher from the University of Alabama (Beane loved Brown).  Beane drafted all three of those players and also Mark Teahen, John McCurdy, Ben Fritz and Steve Obenchain. 

Interestingly, Swisher had a good career (22 WAR), Blanton a solid career (11.9 WAR), Teahen played a couple of seasons in the majors and Brown had 10 career at bats in the majors.  McCurdy, Fritz and Obenchain never made the majors.  Solid draft overall, but Brown the guy Beane loved, basically had a cup of coffee. 

Bonderman the guy Beane hated, was quickly traded to Detroit and won 69 games in the majors (4.9 WAR).  Bonderman was a mediocre major leaguer which is better than most 1st round draft picks.  Really goes to show that the draft is a crap shoot.

[baltfan]

On 9/11/2018 at 3:01 PM, jtschrei said:

Great post. It seems like the NBA figured this out long ago. The 22-year old All-American scoring 25 per game is not nearly the same prospect as a skinny 17-year old kid averaging 10 points per game. Anytime an NBA team drafts a college senior, I feel like that team is saying we need this college guy to be a role player. Anytime they draft the young kid, they are looking for a potential star. 

I wonder what Gladwell would say in response to Moneyball. Isn't one of the premises of moneyball that Beane looked for college seniors who could move quickly through the minors and provide value to the bullpen pretty quickly. 

Only problem with this is that there are many guys that weren’t amazing in high school that go to college and become much better.  They then sometimes become great players.  

[BamaOsFan]

... who are the most likely candidates?

[Greg Pappas]

 

[clapdiddy]

Bobby Witt Jr. - High school shortstop

Adley Rutschman - Oregon State catcher

They are probably the two highest probabilities at this point.   Witt supposedly has the fielding ability to stick at shortstop long-term.

EDIT:   Thanks for posting your link @Greg Pappas !

[Frobby]

There are multiple threads discussing this.   The top two right now are probably HS shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and college catcher Adley Rutschman.    But we won’t really have a clear idea until next spring when an entire additional season of high school and college baseball will be played and players have further developed.   

[OregonBird]

Having been to a lot of Oregon State baseball games over the past few years I am obviously a huge Rutschman fan.  Great player, great character and will be ready quickly.  Hard to go wrong with him.

[Aglets]

How close is Rutschman to "Joe Mauer with power?"