FanGraphs ranks O’s minor league system 28th

[Frobby]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/

By their methodology, Vlad Jr. is worth substantially more ($112 mm) than the entire Orioles’ system combined ($77 mm).

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

[Camden_yardbird]

Most publications I have seen have them ranked more in the 14-18 range.  Still not good but I wouldn't overreact to fangraphs wonky valuation.

[Frobby]

21 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Most publications I have seen have them ranked more in the 14-18 range.  Still not good but I wouldn't overreact to fangraphs wonky valuation.

I agree, it’s just one opinion and they’ve tended to be more negative than others about our prospects (we have nobody in their top 131 listing).    It’s still pretty depressing though.  

[Camden_yardbird]

Their valuation looks top heavy.  Based on future projected value, and that obviously doesnt favor a system that has lots of okay but flawed players.  Which makes sense as that's all the Orioles draft. (I.e. Stewart production but that stance coming out of college or someone like Grenier production but no size.)

[Moose Milligan]

Hard to argue.  We don't have anyone that's can't miss.  Maybe DL Hall, but he's a little far away.  Certainly don't have anyone that could be a Vlad Jr.  

 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/

By their methodology, Vlad Jr. is worth substantially more ($112 mm) than the entire Orioles’ system combined ($77 mm).

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

Wow, that is quite a slap in the face after all the prospects we acquired last year. I can't say I disagree, though, especially about Vlad Jr.

[ChrisP]

At least we're ahead of Boston.

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Wow, that is quite a slap in the face after all the prospects we acquired last year. I can't say I disagree, though, especially about Vlad Jr.

Per Fangraphs, there are 131 prospects ranked 50 or higher, and we have zero of them.    Tampa has 9, the Blue Jays have 5 (including Vlad Jr., the sole player rated 70), and the Yankees have 3.

Contrast that with the OH rankings, which rate 11 O’s prospects at 50 or higher.    Some of that is probably FG just being stingier on grades overall, but clearly they really don’t like our prospects.   

On the other hand, we do have a ton of 40-45 guys per FG.   We actually are tied for 6th in most prospects ranked 40 or higher.    So, what we have is a lot of depth but no real premium talent by their estimation.  

[Orioles1954]

I wonder how the rankings will change after the June draft.

[wildbillhiccup]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Per Fangraphs, there are 131 prospects ranked 50 or higher, and we have zero of them.    Tampa has 9, the Blue Jays have 5 (including Vlad Jr., the sole player rated 70), and the Yankees have 3.

Contrast that with the OH rankings, which rate 11 O’s prospects at 50 or higher.    Some of that is probably FG just being stingier on grades overall, but clearly they really don’t like our prospects.   

On the other hand, we do have a ton of 40-45 guys per FG.   We actually are tied for 6th in most prospects ranked 40 or higher.    So, what we have is a lot of depth but no real premium talent by their estimation.  

I mean, this is kinda on brand. Quantity over quality has been our strategy in the free agent market for years. I agree that more depth is needed at the minor league level , but it's hard to believe we couldn't get back at least one high level prospect when we dealt Machado, Britton, Schoop, and Gausman. 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, Orioles1954 said:

I wonder how the rankings will change after the June draft.

There's a better chance of them changing after the draft than after we spend our international money (eye roll emoji).

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I mean, this is kinda on brand. Quantity over quality has been our strategy in the free agent market for years. I agree that more depth is needed at the minor league level , but it's hard to believe we couldn't get back at least one high level prospect when we dealt Machado, Britton, Schoop, and Gausman. 

I don't think we did.  And it's not hard to believe because....Orioles.

The early returns were lackluster, not one of the guys that we called up to the bigs that we acquired in trades was impressive at all.  Diaz didn't do anything upon arriving in Bowie.  

Obviously the jury is still out but the early returns are not anything to get excited about.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

10 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I mean, this is kinda on brand. Quantity over quality has been our strategy in the free agent market for years. I agree that more depth is needed at the minor league level , but it's hard to believe we couldn't get back at least one high level prospect when we dealt Machado, Britton, Schoop, and Gausman. 

The idea with Gausman was to sign international prospects with the acquired bonus slot pool money and well... 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think we did.  And it's not hard to believe because....Orioles.

The early returns were lackluster, not one of the guys that we called up to the bigs that we acquired in trades was impressive at all.  Diaz didn't do anything upon arriving in Bowie.  

Obviously the jury is still out but the early returns are not anything to get excited about.

We definitely didn't. It was a pathetic fire sale and poorly executed plan since they seemed to put all their eggs in the international basic. I know people have been singing Jonathan Villar's praises, but why would a team in a full rebuild target a player like that as opposed to a prospect? It makes no sense. And if that was the best they could do they should have waited and shopped him during the winter meetings. Same with Gausman. To trade him to the Braves, an organization so stacked with minor league arms they don't know what to do with them, and to not get one of them back is mind boggling.    

In hindsight they should have focused on talent and not depth. Talent, regardless of position. Acquire the best young talent you can then worry about log jams later. I get the sense they were trying to be way too precise in their trades. Just like the pre-season rumor that they specifically wanted to MLB ready arms for Machado. When you make a statement like that you turn at least half of the teams off. Hard to create a bidding war when you're making teams thread a tiny little needle. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

The idea with Gausman was to sign international prospects with the acquired bonus slot pool money and well... 

Was it?

I'm thinking the idea with the Gausman trade was to lower payroll.