Give Sisco another Chance

[El Gordo]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

He's been basically overmatched since AA. A high K rate with little power is a classic example of a guy who just doesn't have the bat speed to hit at the major league level.

Chance Sisco AAA Slash: .260/.341./391/.733, 12 HR, and a disturbing 50 BB-140 K (3.98 PA/K) ratio in 557 PAs. 
                         MAJ Slash: .197/.306/.320/.626,  2 HR, and a disturbing 16 BB-73 K (2.82 PA/K) ratio in 206 PAs.

Above AA, Sisco's best offensive attribute is his ability to get HBP. He's been hit 25 times which has kept his OBP respectable. If he was a good defensive catcher you might live with him as a backup to a good right-handed hitting catcher since he'll walk a little bit, but he's well belows average dfenively regardless of what his DWAR suggests. He's not a good game caller (though he wasn't Matt Wieters bad) and once the slow guys stopped running on him, he couldn't throw anyone out.

If he was eligible, he would not have been in my top 30 prospects anymore. Unfortunately, he's been exposed at the highest levels and has been found to be lacking. He's actually a good case for me to evaluate bat speed better.

I didn't see him a ton in the minors and I did have some scouts tell me they weren't excited over his bat speed, but I let his numbers speak more than the scouts. I once had a scout tell me after his first year in Delmarva that he was Steve Clevenger.

Stats Normalized over 162 games

Steve Clevenger - .227/.284/.324/.608 29 2B, 4 HR, 35 BB, 86K in 497 PAs
Chance Sisco     - .197/.306/.320/.626  10 2B, 9 HR, 36 BB, 162K in 457 PAs, 27 HBP... Take away the 26 HBP and Sisco's normalized OBP is .242.

So while I understand the thought that the Orioles should give young players a chance, the Orioles need to also evaluate the current group and decide which ones are failed prospects and not waste time. 

Now saying all that, if Elias has some miracle cure with analytics that can help Sisco (I doubt it can fix his lack of bat speed) then be my guest, give him some more PAs, but as I showed in a post last year, if Sisco ends up a productive major league hitters he will be the first one to ever start off his career with that strikeout rate and lack of power.

Honestly, it makes some sense in my mind to keep a veteran catcher around to help evaluate the young pitchers but if the Orioles want to go in another direction than Joseph, it's understandable after the year he just had. Me personally, I'd rather have Joseph behind the plate than Sisco with a young staff. 

 

Me too.

[atomic]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

How many organizations have you been in where the senior management has long talks about process with line workers?

Many Ravens players say they have had long talks with Ozzie. This isnt some organization with 80000 employees.  I am sure he will talk to the players.  

[atomic]

2 hours ago, weams said:

Andy and Duquette rarely did. From what I heard. Buck was their Foreman. Are Brady and Graham with the team?

Duquette wasnt known for his communication skills. 

[Frobby]

I’m amazed how completely you’ve given up on Sisco, Tony.    I have no scouting chops but it’s not like .736 at Norfolk at age 22 is awful.   He may not have great bat speed but he hit very well through AA and not terribly at Norfolk in ‘17.    I’d still like to see him get more regular major league playing time and see how he does.    There’s not much to lose really.   

[sportsfan8703]

Sisco will get the benefit of having two new voices has hitting coaches. Plus, John Russel was awesome, but I’m sure the staff will be composed of some former ex-catcher that will also be a new voice. 

His defense doesn’t matter to me. I think that’ll improve with time. What worries me is that he’s getting challenged by MLB pitching and K’ing a ton. 

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m amazed how completely you’ve given up on Sisco, Tony.    I have no scouting chops but it’s not like .736 at Norfolk at age 22 is awful.   He may not have great bat speed but he hit very well through AA and not terribly at Norfolk in ‘17.    I’d still like to see him get more regular major league playing time and see how he does.    There’s not much to lose really.   

I understand the thought process that the team has "nothing to lose," but I just see a player that was exposed by upper level and especially major league pitching. It happens. He won't be the first guy to hit pretty well through to AA then struggle. I have a hard time getting past that strikeout rate with no power. If he was a big power guy and had an awful K rate you may be able to think, "Well, at least we'll get some pop" in the Rob Deer mold, but as I pointed out, if you take away his HBP, which I don't believe is a real skill, his OBP percentage drops a decent amount.

However, if the Orioles choose to run him out there to see what he can do again, I guess they don't have a ton to lose other than a good veteran catcher to work with their pitchers. The problem is, it's hard to live with that bat when the defense is not a positive either.

As one scout I know likes to point out about certain catchers, I could live with the bat if he caught better, or live with the defense if he hit better, but he doesn't do either well enough.

 

[Moose Milligan]

It's always a good day when Rob Deer gets mentioned!

 

 

[interloper]

42 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I understand the thought process that the team has "nothing to lose," but I just see a player that was exposed by upper level and especially major league pitching. It happens. He won't be the first guy to hit pretty well through to AA then struggle. I have a hard time getting past that strikeout rate with no power. If he was a big power guy and had an awful K rate you may be able to think, "Well, at least we'll get some pop" in the Rob Deer mold, but as I pointed out, if you take away his HBP, which I don't believe is a real skill, his OBP percentage drops a decent amount.

However, if the Orioles choose to run him out there to see what he can do again, I guess they don't have a ton to lose other than a good veteran catcher to work with their pitchers. The problem is, it's hard to live with that bat when the defense is not a positive either.

As one scout I know likes to point out about certain catchers, I could live with the bat if he caught better, or live with the defense if he hit better, but he doesn't do either well enough.

 

I don't know if we can really say that yet. He was one of the organization's best bats before his rough year last year. Opposite field approach with power and a good eye at the plate. I'm not ready to say he can't hit just yet, though yes, he did look bad last year at all levels. But so did Hays. Mancini famously has a good approach at the plate and he struggled. 

[Camden_yardbird]

18 hours ago, weams said:

SOme guys say so. I suspect it will be a dead art come next CBA.

Robo-umps? 

I seriously doubt it.

[Tony-OH]

56 minutes ago, interloper said:

I don't know if we can really say that yet. He was one of the organization's best bats before his rough year last year. Opposite field approach with power and a good eye at the plate. I'm not ready to say he can't hit just yet, though yes, he did look bad last year at all levels. But so did Hays. Mancini famously has a good approach at the plate and he struggled. 

You should clarify that statement. YOU can't say or don't want to say that. I will. His development or production has nothing to do with another player. I got a lot of looks of Sisco last year and I see a guy who just doesn't have the bat speed to be successful in the major leagues and doesn't have a good enough glove to offset that lack of power and contact rate.

I could be wrong, and the Orioles fan inside of me would like to be wrong, but I'm giving you my honest scouting take. I realize some people would like to just give guys chance after chance and if I saw upside I would as well, but let me ask you and anyone else who doesn't agree, what is Sisco's carrying tool in the major leagues? 

Through AA it was the ability hit for average and get on base, but he was always subpar defensively, to the point that some never thought he would be able to catch effectively in the major leagues. He'll get into a ball once in awhile, but he was never a consistent power threat. Throughout the minors he's been a liability at throwing guys out to the point that teams were putting a ton of pressure on the pitchers.

Besides hope, what tells you he can be a successful major league catcher/hitter? Can you give me a guy who started off his career with a strikeout rate close to Sisco with Sisco's lack of power and became a good major league hitter? 

I'm certainly willing to be proved wrong, but in my research, Sisco had one of the worse WHIF rates on strikes. That's a real bad sign as well. So he's not just chasing bad pitches, but wasn't able to make contact with pitches in the zone.

Trust me, it's not like I want Sisco to fail or that I'm judging him off one bad season. I've done a lot of statistical analysis as well as used my own scouting eye to make these conclusions.

Saying that, I'm fine if people disagree or think he should be run out there as the starter next year. Me, I'm not going to releases him because there is no reason to at this point and I'd rather give him a chance to make some adjustments with the swing path theory and using analytics to see if it helps first, but I'd rather see him in hit and continual to improve defensively at Norfolk rather than in Baltimore.

Hopefully with Elias, he will force players to kick that major league door down rather than be just given jobs because there is no one else.

 

[interloper]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

You should clarify that statement. YOU can't say or don't want to say that. I will. His development or production has nothing to do with another player. I got a lot of looks of Sisco last year and I see a guy who just doesn't have the bat speed to be successful in the major leagues and doesn't have a good enough glove to offset that lack of power and contact rate.

I could be wrong, and the Orioles fan inside of me would like to be wrong, but I'm giving you my honest scouting take. I realize some people would like to just give guys chance after chance and if I saw upside I would as well, but let me ask you and anyone else who doesn't agree, what is Sisco's carrying tool in the major leagues? 

Through AA it was the ability hit for average and get on base, but he was always subpar defensively, to the point that some never thought he would be able to catch effectively in the major leagues. He'll get into a ball once in awhile, but he was never a consistent power threat. Throughout the minors he's been a liability at throwing guys out to the point that teams were putting a ton of pressure on the pitchers.

Besides hope, what tells you he can be a successful major league catcher/hitter? Can you give me a guy who started off his career with a strikeout rate close to Sisco with Sisco's lack of power and became a good major league hitter? 

I'm certainly willing to be proved wrong, but in my research, Sisco had one of the worse WHIF rates on strikes. That's a real bad sign as well. So he's not just chasing bad pitches, but wasn't able to make contact with pitches in the zone.

Trust me, it's not like I want Sisco to fail or that I'm judging him off one bad season. I've done a lot of statistical analysis as well as used my own scouting eye to make these conclusions.

Saying that, I'm fine if people disagree or think he should be run out there as the starter next year. Me, I'm not going to releases him because there is no reason to at this point and I'd rather give him a chance to make some adjustments with the swing path theory and using analytics to see if it helps first, but I'd rather see him in hit and continual to improve defensively at Norfolk rather than in Baltimore.

Hopefully with Elias, he will force players to kick that major league door down rather than be just given jobs because there is no one else.

 

This is really all I'm saying with the OP. And all fair points!

[Chromehill]

Sisco is not going to fare well with Sig's projection models. 

[webbrick2010]

Can't hit a curve ball

assuming the new regime is competent they will realize this and try to get something for him in  a minor trade.

That he was considered a high prospect even though he clearly can't hit breaking pitches speaks loudly of the outgoing (I hope) player development regime.

[Frobby]

45 minutes ago, Chromehill said:

Sisco is not going to fare well with Sig's projection models. 

Which you are intimately familiar with?

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

You should clarify that statement. YOU can't say or don't want to say that. I will. His development or production has nothing to do with another player. I got a lot of looks of Sisco last year and I see a guy who just doesn't have the bat speed to be successful in the major leagues and doesn't have a good enough glove to offset that lack of power and contact rate.

I could be wrong, and the Orioles fan inside of me would like to be wrong, but I'm giving you my honest scouting take. I realize some people would like to just give guys chance after chance and if I saw upside I would as well, but let me ask you and anyone else who doesn't agree, what is Sisco's carrying tool in the major leagues? 

Through AA it was the ability hit for average and get on base, but he was always subpar defensively, to the point that some never thought he would be able to catch effectively in the major leagues. He'll get into a ball once in awhile, but he was never a consistent power threat. Throughout the minors he's been a liability at throwing guys out to the point that teams were putting a ton of pressure on the pitchers.

Besides hope, what tells you he can be a successful major league catcher/hitter? Can you give me a guy who started off his career with a strikeout rate close to Sisco with Sisco's lack of power and became a good major league hitter? 

I'm certainly willing to be proved wrong, but in my research, Sisco had one of the worse WHIF rates on strikes. That's a real bad sign as well. So he's not just chasing bad pitches, but wasn't able to make contact with pitches in the zone.

Trust me, it's not like I want Sisco to fail or that I'm judging him off one bad season. I've done a lot of statistical analysis as well as used my own scouting eye to make these conclusions.

Saying that, I'm fine if people disagree or think he should be run out there as the starter next year. Me, I'm not going to releases him because there is no reason to at this point and I'd rather give him a chance to make some adjustments with the swing path theory and using analytics to see if it helps first, but I'd rather see him in hit and continual to improve defensively at Norfolk rather than in Baltimore.

Hopefully with Elias, he will force players to kick that major league door down rather than be just given jobs because there is no one else.

 

Tony, do you think analytics can help Sisco.   Poor bat speed in my way of thinking is mostly caused by two things.

1) Sisco's reactions are just not good enough to hit major league pitching.  If that is true their isn't much to do about it and

2) Poor pitch recognition.  If he can't pick up the spin coming out of the pitcher's hand he will miss pitches by swinging too late or just being indecisive which also results in late swings.

But if the Analytics Department shows him that on 1-1 this pitcher throws a change ups or a two seamers on the outside corner that maybe could help Sisco.  

What do you think?